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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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Yep. GFS is now signalling more settled and mild weather for the start of March.

Summer arrived early didn't it?;)

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Edited by Zak M
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The GEM still wants to push the vortex over to Scandinavia and Russia..

image.thumb.png.2adc8dbe73012be3296f32a7500102ac.png

We just need the ridge to build up to Greenland now.

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For the next week pretty low stakes for those south of the border but for Scotland it’s on a knife edge depending on the track and depth of two shortwaves which run east .

Snow is possible on the northern flank of those . The ECM keeps those shallow which is a big help .

Could turn out very interesting for those in Scotland , equally they could develop more and track further north which would just deliver rain .

The risk could extend further south into northern England, pretty small changes in the jet position make a big difference in these set ups .

 

Edited by nick sussex
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I know were talking day 10 plus again, but a trend for better heights building in the western atlantic from gfs and ecm, can the vortex get sufficiently east to give us a northerly to remember at the tail end of the season?

 

ECMOPEU12_240_1-6.png

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Just now, KTtom said:

I know were talking day 10 plus again, but a trend for better heights building in the western atlantic from gfs and ecm, can the vortex get sufficiently east to give us a northerly to remember at the tail end of the season?

 

ECMOPEU12_240_1-6.png

A lot depends on the behaviour of that storm across the eastern USA. Both the ECM and GFS have this around day ten . That needs to amplify to help ridging ahead to get further north .

I’ve lost count though of the amount of day ten ECM ops this winter which show promise and then implode by the next morning .

 

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7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

A lot depends on the behaviour of that storm across the eastern USA. Both the ECM and GFS have this around day ten . That needs to amplify to help ridging ahead to get further north .

I’ve lost count though of the amount of day ten ECM ops this winter which show promise and then implode by the next morning .

 

Agreed, but some support from gfs a couple of days later?

 

GFSOPEU12_312_1.png

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3 hours ago, nick sussex said:

For the next week pretty low stakes for those south of the border but for Scotland it’s on a knife edge depending on the track and depth of two shortwaves which run east .

Snow is possible on the northern flank of those . The ECM keeps those shallow which is a big help .

Could turn out very interesting for those in Scotland , equally they could develop more and track further north which would just deliver rain .

The risk could extend further south into northern England, pretty small changes in the jet position make a big difference in these set ups .

 

But sadly southern Britain has been starved to Death of snow 

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17 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

But sadly southern Britain has been starved to Death of snow 

You’re not wrong!  Just like much of Europe in fact.

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1 hour ago, Dennis said:

remember this one...

 

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Yes - the 240 mean looked a bit better tonight - that it might have a more potent Northerly cluster.

EDIT  oh thats the 0z though

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Good morning everyone!

The GFS has not been showing any interest in anything at the moment, apart from the beginning of March being under the influence of high pressure and some settled weather with temps into the low teens.

Today is almost like a repeat of yesterday, with a trough settling over the UK. As so, heavy scattered showers will be present, perhaps with hail and thunder, moving across the British Isles. These showers will fall as sleet/snow if they come in contact with any hilly areas in the north.

I also noticed between 15:00 and 20:00 that a band of more organised showers/downpours moving in. This will most likely not be a squall line but it can bring some strong winds.

tuesday15.thumb.png.d2f651f5885fb2a17c20cd8ee6127fee.pngtuesday16.thumb.png.c84eba5659dbf17255027ce2c81ae653.pngtuesday17.thumb.png.355955a130a0aae7d870f3431b2a52ca.pngtuesday18.thumb.png.044a1f82e9b934300597d350f3afefc4.png

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Enjoy the rest of the morning everyone!

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Morning peeps...I'm still looking past the current nastiness and seeing hopes of a drying-out spell:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

But it's not a done deal...Not yet!

prmslBedfordshire.png    t850Bedfordshire.png

And, with that, it's off to the farm I go!?‍?

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ECM - every time it looks like Arctic air is primed to flood south, a little spoiler low pops up and it just ends up Polar Maritime air and just below average temps with wintry showers in the North over high ground.

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Just when you think this pathetic apology of a winter couldn’t get any worse we see these charts, I know it’s in the far reaches of FI but what are the odds of these verifying above the lovely cold ones we saw a couple of runs ago!!!

22DE327D-4452-49AD-90C7-66302B9C76C1.png

1F4C7374-6276-429D-9450-C7F096FD68C4.png

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2 hours ago, Cuban Zebra said:

Just when you think this pathetic apology of a winter couldn’t get any worse we see these charts, I know it’s in the far reaches of FI but what are the odds of these verifying above the lovely cold ones we saw a couple of runs ago!!!

22DE327D-4452-49AD-90C7-66302B9C76C1.png

1F4C7374-6276-429D-9450-C7F096FD68C4.png

Those charts are for spring and to be honest I’m ready for some warmth now, terrible winter for cold and snow fans ?

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Well, there is some good news for the coldies!

Latest GFS run is now showing some arctic air visiting the UK from the north on day 8...

cold.thumb.png.a6ac14289ef71d9cb56382313a2e3e67.pngcold0.thumb.png.3684d9347cbd0297e80ee4eb41aab75b.pngcold1.thumb.png.007f4b3fc123952ee20134db2d9cb714.pngcold2.thumb.png.93958aa01191d120c11df86d6c40659d.png

...followed by another plume of arctic air on days 10 and 11 with a pretty deep low associated with it!

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And then at the beginning of March, the GFS is still showing that plume of more milder air and settled weather over the UK. Notice how far down that plunge of cold air is over Europe? That would of impacted the UK on days 10 and 11!

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And after that plume of more milder and settled air, look what's taking place in the Atlantic!! ?

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Plenty of interesting showing now on the GFS. Cold/snow fans might actually get the weather that they need! ?

Have a good afternoon everyone!

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3 hours ago, Cuban Zebra said:

Just when you think this pathetic apology of a winter couldn’t get any worse we see these charts, I know it’s in the far reaches of FI but what are the odds of these verifying above the lovely cold ones we saw a couple of runs ago!!!

22DE327D-4452-49AD-90C7-66302B9C76C1.png

1F4C7374-6276-429D-9450-C7F096FD68C4.png

Given how the first half of March normally is, I’d welcome that with open arms after what we’ve endured. Somehow I don’t think it would be very prolonged until that AO drops significantly but any dry interludes are most welcome.

Later into March might be better for a dry settled spell. Nothing scientific there, just a tendency after Atlantic dominated winters.

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I applaud Zak's optimism and analysis ?  However like Froze says it doesn't have much support and is likely to be one of many scenarios in a chaotic and mixed ensemble set. You would think at some point the cards would fall favourably for a cold shot and more widespread snow but there isn't really anything to support that notion, with a continuation of changeable and unsettled conditions the form horse and any snow restricted to transient events for northern areas and hills.

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