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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Unfortunately the ECM and ens are yet to follow the GFS and GEFS.

Oh yes, I know.  However, it's still nice to see a bit of eye candy!

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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Just me then tonight? 

Anyone else for some clutching at straws? FI starting to hold interest... 

Edit... Doesn't look cold though, but certainly a different run (yes I know, ignore FI...) 

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Edited by Griff
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14 minutes ago, Griff said:

Just me then tonight? 

Anyone else for some clutching at straws? FI starting to hold interest... 

gfsnh-0-258.png

The AO dropping is a good thing but the GFS blew it earlier by blowing up the shortwave which then runs ne forcing the Euro high further north .

We don’t want any upstream amplification till after that shortwave which is to the west of the UK at day 7 is clearing through the UK . Otherwise that just brings the Euro high ne .

 

Edited by nick sussex
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8 hours ago, nick sussex said:

The AO dropping is a good thing but the GFS blew it earlier by blowing up the shortwave which then runs ne forcing the Euro high further north .

We don’t want any upstream amplification till after that shortwave which is to the west of the UK at day 7 is clearing through the UK . Otherwise that just brings the Euro high ne .

 

And knowing our luck thats where it will end up ? 

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24 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

How's that for a northerly, ensemble 6

 

GFSP06EU00_288_1.pngGFSP06EU00_288_2.png

A bit of support from the Canadian Model below at 240T. Sort of heading towards the above longer term evolution, especially if the Mid - Atlantic high could link with the Greenland high. That would  let in a potent Northerly straight from the Greenland Sea , where 850mb temps are modelled at -25c by 28th February. Of course plotting this route to some real cold may well disappear into dream land for us many cold lovers going by the way this rotten mild winter has turned out.In the meanwhile some amazing high temps expected in the heart of Ode to be Joy land today.

GEMOPEU00_240_1.png

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Apart from the signal (or is it regression to the mean?) for things becoming more 'average' with time, it looks as if the current unsettled spell is set to continue...? GFS 06Z at T+384:

h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

However, lest one get accused of 'clutching at straws' or 'hopecasting', I'm suggesting neither 'Snowmageddon, as in perturbation-X' nor 'Barbecue Spring, as in perturbation-Y'...Just a gradual return to normality...:oldgood:

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10 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Apart from the signal (or is it regression to the mean?) for things becoming more 'average' with time, it looks as if the current unsettled spell is set to continue...? GFS 06Z at T+384:

 

However, lest one get accused of 'clutching at straws' or 'hopecasting', I'm suggesting neither 'Snowmageddon, as in perturbation-X' nor 'Barbecue Spring, as in perturbation-Y'...Just a gradual return to normality...:oldgood:

The General Clustering this morning at the end of month though on the GEFS is all below -5c uppers.

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The General Clustering this morning at the end of month though on the GEFS is all below -5c uppers.

image.thumb.png.2fe9e151ebfe2763983c3437a9763bac.png

Yes Feb there as been quite a bit of noise from those ensembles for a few days now, and I like how that mean is on the fall. Could we salvage something come months end!! The one I'm posting.... Well let's just say I nearly choked on me bran flakes.. ?

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11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The General Clustering this morning at the end of month though on the GEFS is all below -5c uppers.

image.thumb.png.2fe9e151ebfe2763983c3437a9763bac.png

Quite encouraging snow % from 24th onwards ! Which location are these for please?

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3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Quite encouraging snow % from 24th onwards ! Which location are these for please?

Either Somewhere in Northern England or slap bang in Central England, they were the same more or less for both of those locations so just take the 850's as from Birmingham Northwards up to about Leeds, they will probably be even better for Scotland as they were Northerlies and i had a peek at some stonkers in there, not sure how they were for Southern England.

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Here is London. Very encouraging for at least a flake or 2 down south at the end of the month. Op was almost a mild outlier at times towards the end. Expecting a few stonking runs in the coming days 

BE9693E5-71B8-494E-B6A0-4F135BBEED65.gif

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John Kettley was on LBC this morning and he did say an opportunity within the models  at the end of the month for a short lived artic Blast . Fingers and everything else crossed .

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1 hour ago, Mark wheeler said:

John Kettley was on LBC this morning and he did say an opportunity within the models  at the end of the month for a short lived artic Blast . Fingers and everything else crossed .

Trouble is these, these Arctic blasts often get shortened down to diddly squat as they get closer, especially during mild winters.  That said, it's better to have an opportunity than nowt!  I doubt a short lived Arctic blast would deliver anything to my back yard, though, but at least those in the north would have some fun and games.

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22 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

The amplification is MJO driven, until the Euro backs the GFS I would be highly suspicious.

Why do they have to back the almighty gfs exactly. 

Having said that the gfs ensembles are the coldest they have been all winter as we head towards the end of it. 

Unreal as we head towards spring that this happens AGAIN

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1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Why do they have to back the almighty gfs exactly. 

Having said that the gfs ensembles are the coldest they have been all winter as we head towards the end of it. 

Unreal as we head towards spring that this happens AGAIN

Because it is the GFS that is forecasting tropical convection moving east (6-7-8-1 at high amplitude are generally favorable to high latitude blocking) while the Euro suppresses convection. 

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As it happens that is actually stonking victory for the Euro already. GFS a few days ago was forecasting a phase 7 value in excess of 3, it is now about 1.5 in phases 6-7-8.

Kudos to the Euro it seems. 

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After some very wet conditions in many areas this weekend with significant flooding in places and After a very windy night where winds gusted 45-55mph widely for central southern areas with the far southeast recording wind gusts close to 70mph Close to the coast all ahead of an intense squall line. it's looking comparatively calmer in the next few days, although before that it will remain very windy for northern areas especially Scotland and in particular the western Isles and the far north of Scotland tonight where gusts could reach 60-70mph for a time as well as a fair few showers effecting many western areas and northern areas with some areas of central, southern and Eastern areas staying mostly dry the showers being wintry on hills in the north more specifically Scotland.

GFS.. ?

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Gfs wind gusts.. 

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Winds ease tomorow for many but it stays quite windy and showers continue.

As for the rest of the week windy and wet at times especially for Scotland and Northern Ireland with the risk of gales again later in the week, remaining mostly mild perhaps things becoming cooler during the following week but remaining unsettled but there will be dry days ofcourse especially in central and southern areas. 

19th..?

EUROPE_PRMSLEM_HGT500_72.thumb.jpg.cad83ec3aa90f0d9e9ed02cdacbb98d8.jpg

20th..

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21st..

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23rd..

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Edited by jordan smith
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gfs was a very mild run in the ensemble pack,

 

Still some corkers in their and we breach the minus 10 850 hpa line, again which can be a sign something cold is brewing.Heaven forbid in this winter lol

Edit beaten by the above post.lol

Edited by SLEETY
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