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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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Honestly the above really is extreme straw-clutching. There's almost nothing on the latest 6z GFS to suggest anything other than continued mobility across the UK. The T144 extension of the Azores high into a nascent high pressure forming over the Bay of Biscay is itself fairly fraught. But even if it materialises it does nothing to alter the south-westerly conveyor belt across the UK. We would need it extending 300 miles further north and I can see no sign of that?

I've been studying the weather for 45 years and I don't think I have ever seen anything like this. The idea that we are going to pass quickly from 1. The strongest jet core probably ever seen across the Atlantic, 2. One of the deepest Atlantic lows ever recorded, 3. The stormiest February on record, so far, ... into something blocked and cold seems to me quite implausible. The upstream drivers look to me to be continuation for the foreseeable future of the powerful jet and cyclogenesis.

I wish it weren't so, but I can't see much to restrain this westerly onslaught. It's astonishing, to be frank.

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12 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Honestly the above really is extreme straw-clutching. There's almost nothing on the latest 6z GFS to suggest anything other than continued mobility across the UK. The T144 extension of the Azores high into a nascent high pressure forming over the Bay of Biscay is itself fairly fraught. But even if it materialises it does nothing to alter the south-westerly conveyor belt across the UK. We would need it extending 300 miles further north and I can see no sign of that?

I've been studying the weather for 45 years and I don't think I have ever seen anything like this. The idea that we are going to pass quickly from 1. The strongest jet core probably ever seen across the Atlantic, 2. One of the deepest Atlantic lows ever recorded, 3. The stormiest February on record, so far, ... into something blocked and cold seems to me quite implausible. The upstream drivers look to me to be continuation for the foreseeable future of the powerful jet and cyclogenesis.

I wish it weren't so, but I can't see much to restrain this westerly onslaught. It's astonishing, to be frank.

Are referring to GC’s post? He isn’t suggesting anything cold nor a change from predominantly westerly winds. Just a lot less in the way of strong winds and rain for many. Further south the better in terms of rain and wind. The attached precipitation charts should always been taken with a pinch of salt but it is what the gfs 06z is showing.  I do agree it’s unlikely we are going to go from where we are now to the freezer but that wasn’t his point imo??

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47 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I think Pete... Aka general cluster was just making a call on a potentially more settled note tbh.. ? Taking a look at those 6z ens and I feel there is a decent degree of support for some kind of colder shots towards months end!! And some of em pack a punch! So let's just see how things play out during the next 10 day's, hopefully a new month will bring a change to this current garbage... My opinion only..?

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Well, some models are showing plunges of cold air, and some models are showing plunges of warm air. Which one will prevail?

I've had a look at the GFS and it shows a pretty mild/warm plume of air next week, with western Russia receiving the cold plunge of air.

In about a months time too, another plume of warm air could slightly be possible, although things are almost certain to change as we get nearer to these dates!

model.thumb.png.026bef17e86331ff2d26a7a0d74de908.png model0.thumb.png.23da3fd15fd4547c2662cfbdad617fb1.png model1.thumb.png.5da386ce186133b011116f468cdfb2a8.png model2.thumb.png.ef07fe326b32b63ff6bf051e96b938ac.png

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Edited by Zak M
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It will take a few days to find out what the MJO is actually going to do because the current signal according to the GEFS edges back west towards phase 5 before then edging east towards phase 7 .

Yesterdays ECM still wasn’t interested so a lot of uncertainty as to what will actually verify .

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Although the GFF throws a few crumbs in terms of the odd shot of colder air the big issue remains of the PV never relenting sufficiently to the nw to allow much upstream amplification.

So even though the main chunk of the PV has gone east you can never get a ridge sufficiently north .

A case in point , the big eastern USA storm is normally a good sign upstream if the pattern was more amplified as that would drive WAA ahead of it helping to pull a ridge further north to the west of the UK.

Most of the run was like pulling teeth as the Euro limpet high was glued to the south.

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The GEFS are a mixed bag . Some better solutions than the GFS op but ensembles past day ten can be very volatile and really I don’t have much confidence in these until we get them at least to within day ten .

There is a signal to edge the PV east and this is likely , the uncertain bit is how much of that remains to the nw .

 

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26 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Winter's gone again! h500slp.pngh850t850eu.png?

 

Something for everyone, but will any cold shots actually evolve beyond FI

Edited by Griff
Got to love autocorrect ?
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21 minutes ago, Griff said:

Something for everyone, but will any cold shots actually evolve beyond FI

yes any is seen into late febr/start march

image.thumb.png.bf742ce87d24309a2f91fd79d96e3f06.png

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6 hours ago, West is Best said:

Honestly the above really is extreme straw-clutching. There's almost nothing on the latest 6z GFS to suggest anything other than continued mobility across the UK. The T144 extension of the Azores high into a nascent high pressure forming over the Bay of Biscay is itself fairly fraught. But even if it materialises it does nothing to alter the south-westerly conveyor belt across the UK. We would need it extending 300 miles further north and I can see no sign of that?

I've been studying the weather for 45 years and I don't think I have ever seen anything like this. The idea that we are going to pass quickly from 1. The strongest jet core probably ever seen across the Atlantic, 2. One of the deepest Atlantic lows ever recorded, 3. The stormiest February on record, so far, ... into something blocked and cold seems to me quite implausible. The upstream drivers look to me to be continuation for the foreseeable future of the powerful jet and cyclogenesis.

I wish it weren't so, but I can't see much to restrain this westerly onslaught. It's astonishing, to be frank.

Not quite as stormy (at the moment anyway) as the infamous Feb 2014 that really was horrendous 

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The ECM has the weaker shortwave which runs east between day 7 and 8 .

This is better as it will track further south. Some quite cold air just to the north of that so a chance of snow on the northern flank of that .

The GFS blows that shortwave up and has the Euro limpet high further north which we don’t want to see .

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For anyone whose glass is half full, there's something of everything in the 12Z T850 ensemble; but, for those with a glass that's half empty...??

t850Bedfordshire.png

Edited by General Cluster
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can’t buy a break from this wretched euro high.Ecm tries but it won’t budge enough.

3 months nearly and still it’s still here.

absolutely hopeless end to the winter it’s looking  more and more likely 

Edited by SLEETY
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It has been a very wet and windy day across the UK. There have been tons of reports of flooding in the UK, with probably more to come. This weekend storm might not be done - just yet.

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Saturday night/overnight

On Saturday night/overnight, a band of heavy rain will track eastwards across England and Wales, with some heavy bursts possible. It will also turn pretty windy tonight too, with 40-50mph gusts possible near the coasts, and 30-40mph gusts possible inland. A very wet, windy and soggy end to the day. The band of rain shouldn't reach Scotland and Northern Ireland, however, they could be treated to some scattered, blustery showers. These showers might fall as sleet or snow over the hills of Scotland. Later in the night, a squall line might develop off the coast of Ireland and it could move across England and Wales during the night. If you are caught in this squall line, then expect a lot of rain in a short space of time. Temperatures across southern England and Wales won't drop too much during the night, with temperatures in England and Wales ranging from 7-14c, and the temperatures in Scotland and Northern Ireland should range from 3-10c during the night.

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Sunday morning

By Sunday morning, the band of heavy rain and the squall line would be over southern-central England by the morning. The heaviest of the rain would be over the hills of Wales and within the squall line. Scotland and Northern Ireland should wake up to a pretty dry morning, with a small chance of a shower. And once again, these showers could fall as sleet or snow over high ground. It will still be a windy morning everywhere though, with 40-50mph gusts possible near the coasts, and 30-40mph possible inland. Parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland could wake up to some patches of frost. Some places might not wake up to patches of frost as it will pretty mild once again, with temperatures not dropping much. The temperatures in England and Wales in the morning should range from 5-13c, and in Scotland and Northern Ireland, it should range from 2-7c.

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Sunday lunchtime/afternoon

On Sunday lunchtime/afternoon, the only places that the squall line and band of rain will be present is in the far south of England. Elsewhere, it should start to become largely dry almost anywhere. However, after the band of rain and the possible squall line has cleared, some heavy showers will soon follow. These showers have the chance of producing hail and merging into longer spells of rain, and the odd sleet/snow shower could be possible falling over the hills of Scotland. As the band of rain/squall line is a cold front, it will bring colder air, so temperatures will drop slowly and gradually during the day. It will still be feeling mild, with temperatures in England and Wales ranging from 7-13c, and the temperatures should be ranging from 3-9c in the afternoon over Scotland and Northern Ireland.

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Sunday evening

On Sunday evening, the band of rain and the squall line would clear away, leaving a mostly dry night for the British Isles. The threat of some showers is possible, with the possibility of these showers producing hail and merging into longer spells of rain. As it would be nighttime, the temperatures would have dropped, meaning that the risk of the showers falling as sleet or snow is wider across many areas, including Northern Ireland and Northern England. It might still be a bit windy on some of the coasts, but the winds would of definitely calmed down by now. It will be a chilly end to the day, with temperatures in England and Wales ranging from 3-8c, and the temperatures in Scotland and Northern Ireland should range from 0-6c in the evening. 

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Apologies for some of the black lines in the photos - I didn't crop them too well!

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