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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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56 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

But actual temps have been above average, for most of the time, too, Crewe...??

I think what Crewe is saying is that above average temperatures don't necessarily mean dry and settled. Most of our summers now are above average temperature wise (like the rest of the year) but they are often unsettled.

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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Something to keep an eye on - brief colder northerly incursion possible towards the end of the month:

image.thumb.png.ac6860535ea48eb3d263aec25d487d02.png

Sadly looks fleeting and short lived at the moment, back to +NAO again by day 15:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020021400_360.

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Consistency again from the GFS 06z with the upcoming pattern, so at D12:

gfseu-0-294.thumb.png.ce6d67f611a5ba28f07517f0a4ee8fee.png

Azores high/ridge and trough into Europe. UK within the two features. Could improve for cold or may not but *potential for a change even if only transitory. So into FI on the 06z

gfseu-0-330.thumb.png.b16202762f78ff03f0a6a90a2f9068bc.png  gfseu-1-336.thumb.png.e1d2ac7429c80c9c80aaf2ca743be7cb.png

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31 minutes ago, IDO said:

Consistency again from the GFS 06z with the upcoming pattern, so at D12:

gfseu-0-294.thumb.png.ce6d67f611a5ba28f07517f0a4ee8fee.png

Azores high/ridge and trough into Europe. UK within the two features. Could improve for cold or may not but *potential for a change even if only transitory. So into FI on the 06z

gfseu-0-330.thumb.png.b16202762f78ff03f0a6a90a2f9068bc.png  gfseu-1-336.thumb.png.e1d2ac7429c80c9c80aaf2ca743be7cb.png

Yawns... Again FI which ultimately remains just that... A fantasy sadly 

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5 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

Yawns... Again FI which ultimately remains just that... A fantasy sadly 

I wouldn't completely dismiss the idea - ECM and GFS both show it as a possibility, and the mean is down to -5 at the end of the month. There is a definite trend to pull the high to the west a bit, which would give the northerly chance. Nothing long lasting, but a very short cold shot isn't out of the question. ?

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11 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I disagree RE GLOSEA...

Geopotential heights showing a trough around the UK and the rainfall anomalies are a bit above average.

2cat_20200201_z500_months46_global_deter

2cat_20200201_prec_months46_global_deter

Ignore the temps, they almost always show above average.

At this range, just glad to see no clear signal for anything nasty - which there could have been after the winter just gone/going.  And as there isn't a clear signal you can read what you want into a 3 month average anomaly...which is why I prefer the probability plots.  The ridge to the SW could be more relevant for the south than the feature you identify.

I do agree that practically every month, the model shows a higher probability of warmer than average, but that is still a prediction.

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15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

At this range, just glad to see no clear signal for anything nasty - which there could have been after the winter just gone/going.  And as there isn't a clear signal you can read what you want into a 3 month average anomaly...which is why I prefer the probability plots.  The ridge to the SW could be more relevant for the south than the feature you identify.

I do agree that practically every month, the model shows a higher probability of warmer than average, but that is still a prediction.

That's a good point Mike, I'm starting to wonder also if these climate models are over playing the  global warming that is factored into there programming! Because everytime we see a seasonal forecast these days, it basically predicts warmer than average! Would be interesting to see how these models would handle a situation of an entire year being cooler than average. 

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8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The GFS 6z ensembles for me show a downturn in those temps moving forward, the mean most definitely is lower.. I'm loving a few of those ensembles, the one I'm posting...... Come to papa... 

graphe3_1000_292_82___.png

gens-10-0-324.png

gens-10-0-348.png

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9c8797a5f698d8ae96fe39af28510a0a768064d4.gif

Looking more likely that we will see a cold snap of some sorts at the end of Feb with quite a few of the ens showing some sort of cold, lets hope that winter can end with a decent blast with snow for all of the country.

06z mean.

 

gens-21-0-312.png

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8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

That's a good point Mike, I'm starting to wonder also if these climate models are over playing the  global warming that is factored into there programming! Because everytime we see a seasonal forecast these days, it basically predicts warmer than average! Would be interesting to see how these models would handle a situation of an entire year being cooler than average. 

An entire year? I think winning the lottery would be easier! ?

Anyway, back to the models, good to see the possibility of a northerly for the end of the month. 

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Latest MJO update from the GEFS .

Not backing down , phase 7 and edging into phase 8 . Crunch time approaching!

The ECM update will be crucial now to see if that makes any move towards the GEFS.

We really need the GEFS to be correct .

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ARPEGE 6z ensembles give the following cumulatives for precipitation and max gusts for storm Dennis.

Precipitation first, minimum, 50% and maximum over the probability distribution, cumulative through to end Sunday.

image.thumb.jpg.142d255913f7736950a99201b6bef2f3.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.4aeead92438a0f69d44e0b0f75d15f9c.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.47a337aec5ab134efe33490cadc85d4d.jpg 

Clearly Wales, Cumbria and NW Scotland hit hard, some places getting away with a drenching but nothing worse.

Wind, and I note suggestions that ARPEGE overdoes winds after Ciara, but here maximum gusts through to end Sunday, for minimum, 50% and maximum:

image.thumb.jpg.d766e0e776e652c395c7c6cf2a17ca17.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.7b2b179f4ee11b2876b80b9e98652c60.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.2d9ec663c2f3aeb72a3cf4d911c198db.jpg

Even the extreme end less than was forecast for Ciara, so I think the main issue with this storm is rainfall in really specific areas that really really don't need it.

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On 07/02/2020 at 20:48, CreweCold said:

Sleet/snow will likely fall to modest levels Monday afternoon/evening across the Midlands/ Wales associated with a little front crossing the country. Winds shown to fall light as it passes

image.thumb.png.912c534f7e0eaaa7ed658009dc9a2056.png

This should support a marginal event- uppers borderline, thickness borderline, but a good chance of seeing some snow fall nonetheless

image.thumb.png.15b03fd1a404aad093d2e83a55f75e55.png

image.thumb.png.c52a8914026a60ed3624dcf6659fa9a8.png

Couldn’t resist quoting an old post, but the likes of the GFS did pretty well with that event on Monday. Close to the mark with your assessment. Here, seemed to be mostly rain and sleet, although places such as Stoke got hit pretty hard with heavy snow. I think I heard Crewe had some too (but could be mistaken).

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2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Latest MJO update from the GEFS .

Not backing down , phase 7 and edging into phase 8 . Crunch time approaching!

The ECM update will be crucial now to see if that makes any move towards the GEFS.

We really need the GEFS to be correct .

I think crunch time was a day or two ago, but it still isn't resolved, here GEFS and ECM ens:

image.thumb.jpg.63fafc0284ca685634852550bd1d3063.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.a34c3db72c696b7b31b29e0f8d316bfa.jpg

Up to now I had been siding with ECM, but on today's plot seems to be doing the MJO equivalent of reversing round a roundabout.  Not clever, not safe.  I'm switching allegiance to GEFS now, maybe this will deliver a late winter cold blast a couple of weeks down the line.  

 

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Well, a slightly more interesting 12Z OP from GFS. The SPV (or TV or PV or whatever people are calling it) ends up directly over the Pole thus allowing a hint of amplification in mid-Atlantic and negatively tilting the trough so a chilly start to March but it's one option.

Control keeps more energy over NW Greenland so it all flattens again after a chilly snap.

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2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

I think crunch time was a day or two ago, but it still isn't resolved, here GEFS and ECM ens:

image.thumb.jpg.63fafc0284ca685634852550bd1d3063.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.a34c3db72c696b7b31b29e0f8d316bfa.jpg

Up to now I had been siding with ECM, but on today's plot seems to be doing the MJO equivalent of reversing round a roundabout.  Not clever, not safe.  I'm switching allegiance to GEFS now, maybe this will deliver a late winter cold blast a couple of weeks down the line.  

 

We should get an idea by the 18th. Looking at that it is the 17th when the Euro heads back the GFS amplifies. 

..

Nick, have any of the NOAA discussions mentioned this?

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6 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

We should get an idea by the 18th. Looking at that it is the 17th when the Euro heads back the GFS amplifies. 

..

Nick, have any of the NOAA discussions mentioned this?

I’ve not seen mention of it there as yet it’s a bit too far out . They talk about the AO returning to neutral values after this highly positive period .

Earlier in the week the NCEP Global Hazards outlook explained the cause of the divergence . That also was talked about in the MJO update from NCEP .

Its a very complicated picture . I agree in that we’re unlikely to know what’s happening for a few more days . The MJO effectively stalls and then after that is when the models go their own ways .

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The NetWx-SR definitely points out where the heaviest rainfall will be located at the weekend:

rain.thumb.png.9f2ba92f8218e5f41536c29e44ca4922.pngrain0.thumb.png.34dc8bf489e90714ba0c7ab455e3de0d.pngrain1.thumb.png.aa0b37b335f1a2a809ebec17c197db5a.png

rain2.thumb.png.a5dcb34df193f3153c8d30bfa411aa13.pngrain3.thumb.png.a57173d50655610cbba8ed5f254712a4.pngrain4.thumb.png.672d0252e33597df51a7ac51b11d831c.png

Edited by Zak M
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While the 12z gfs threw up some positives for coldies with the likelihood of cold incursions going forward the 12z ecm isn’t having any of it seemingly. A nightmare of a run again with a combination of azores/euro heights coming very much into play from 19th Feb on. On the plus side, less rainfall and slack winds of course. 

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