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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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30 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Hi guys. As you brace yourselves for Storm Dennis. I am on the northern side of the Storm System in Reykjavik where we have a red alert for friday from the Icelandic met office for sustained winds of 68mph and gust in excess of this. The upside is that it will be accompanied by sleet and snow. 

Sounds bad (except for the bit about the snow ?)  I note though that the met office app is showing sustained wind speeds of 35mph and max gust of 65mph for Reykjavik on Friday which seems more on a par with Uk forecast 

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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Blasted Vortex goes from strength to sodin' strength! ?

image.thumb.png.3f9dc6e608adec71dd2dfb65a209ed49.png

Problem is, simple physics says that as the season progresses towards the equinox the Northern polar region will keep the cold bottled up and the heating of the lower latitudes will simply enhance the thermal gradient. So - stronger jet and more mild unsettled crap!

Edited by Purga
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A glimmer, but the low exiting USA at day 10 is angled nicely to encourage the azores high to ridge north and give us a similar mid atlantic ridge as last nights gfs 18z...well thats my glass half full take on it anyway?

ECMOPEU12_240_1-5.png

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Certainly a beast that is currently lurking to the west of us. Undergoing cyclogenesis too by the looks of it.

storm.thumb.png.efe9c302591b3f67cd7d0c905340038a.pngstorm0.thumb.png.34c03ff02f12df7851ce955a45cc440c.pngstorm1.thumb.png.86deaa025aea79843dd7b18f076b7687.pngstorm2.thumb.png.c6b480e152c9dbd371ea4f271ab05270.png

storm3.thumb.png.7a2600f0111a1e195827d2b289669d42.pngstorm4.thumb.png.09371fdfcd2a071c21c8ffb2f2105347.pngstorm5.thumb.png.b4aee44eb239a477e5962ae3308f9856.pngstorm6.thumb.png.beb492b7ef6cc52db4bd24e3e9350e0b.png

storm7.thumb.png.1b18d87abfdb56164ed9427eacfdb8e3.pngstorm8.thumb.png.5c7b9bb151a9955f43e931ee68451e59.pngstorm9.thumb.png.824ddda2e759fc8e62039ce27d55a2cb.pngstorm10.thumb.png.6e04fae13b90e701004d4632bb267dca.png

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Hello folks.  Well the great MJO stand off continues with this from GEFS and ECM ens today:

image.thumb.jpg.3340f8dcc891d6ab40208307a6d71cb9.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.7314503234a36be93141769e9ffaa690.jpg

But can we get an idea which is right by looking at predictions 5 days ago:

image.thumb.jpg.f9bd486a07dc2754000d0d919adecb95.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.a7eb2957f8185d7cb372abdf0f84a064.jpg

NO!! As far as I see the actuals for the last five days don't help one little bit!  The standoff continues...as I've said earlier, I'm backing ECM to be right, yes because it is the better model, but also because it the solution that coldies don't want so will by Sod's law prove to be correct as so many times before...

Edited by Mike Poole
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2 hours ago, Snow Shoes said:

Sounds bad (except for the bit about the snow ?)  I note though that the met office app is showing sustained wind speeds of 35mph and max gust of 65mph for Reykjavik on Friday which seems more on a par with Uk forecast 

A friend of mine is tour guide with a school party there now. They were on the road from the Black Beach this afternoon, I was there in glorious conditions 3 years ago so this is extreme, as this pic shows!!

 The school party she’s touring have been confined to their hotel tomorrow!

 

54541EB9-349D-4FF9-8EF1-A0CEA3DAE88A.jpeg

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1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Feb GloSea5 is out, just one plot tells you all you need to know about the 'winter' legacy, 2m temperature Mar-May:

image.thumb.jpg.21a0091f194a8ebccf51f66942772c00.jpg

No clear signal on precipitation at all so I won't post the chart.  

I have to say I'm interested in this from the point of view of summer now, so here 2m temperature and z500 for May-Jul:

image.thumb.jpg.b9a1d6e3575225a5617da8965a134319.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.5dd3548cff778de3236e5966aac23d0c.jpg

Maybe hardly surprising that hotter than average is favourite given the recent past, and nothing that suggests some summer nightmare from the heights charts, although obviously they are are means over 3 months and many runs, uncertainty over summer, but not much of a hint of the doomsday 2007 at all, I would say, at this early stage, so I'll take that. In fact that leaves me optimistic about the warm season!  First time GloSea5 has left me optimistic about anything for ages.

When is it not a 'warm season' these days?!  On a more serious note, the warmer than average conditions show no sign of abating from the latest GloSea5 charts.  Does make you wonder......

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8 minutes ago, Don said:

When is it not a 'warm season' these days?!  On a more serious note, the warmer than average conditions show no sign of abating from the latest GloSea5 charts.  Does make you wonder......

 

Edited by DAVID SNOW
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After a brief colder interlude the PV ramps up and then a question mark as to what happens after that .

The GFS op starts to amplify the upstream pattern towards day ten , we don’t manage to get the high into a favourable position on this run but the ensembles do have some better solutions .

I’m always a bit dubious of longer range ensembles but there does seem to be a trigger to move the PV further east and with that colder chances improve and this is likely connected with the GEFS view regarding the MJO.

The MJO forecasts are very uncertain because of the huge disagreements between the GEFS and ECM .

The GEFS MJO if not muted out by other factors is really I think the last chance to salvage something out of this tragic winter for coldies .

The ECM isn’t interested , normally that does verify better than the GEFS but the situation is more complicated than the normal disagreements of say phase speed and amplitude .

Effectively both are totally disagreeing on which parcel of convection associated with the current MJO cycle will become the dominant feature .

It’s very unusual to see this type of divergence . 

We await the updates tomorrow ! 

 

Edited by nick sussex
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3 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Feb GloSea5 is out, just one plot tells you all you need to know about the 'winter' legacy, 2m temperature Mar-May:

image.thumb.jpg.21a0091f194a8ebccf51f66942772c00.jpg

No clear signal on precipitation at all so I won't post the chart.  

I have to say I'm interested in this from the point of view of summer now, so here 2m temperature and z500 for May-Jul:

image.thumb.jpg.b9a1d6e3575225a5617da8965a134319.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.5dd3548cff778de3236e5966aac23d0c.jpg

Maybe hardly surprising that hotter than average is favourite given the recent past, and nothing that suggests some summer nightmare from the heights charts, although obviously they are are means over 3 months and many runs, uncertainty over summer, but not much of a hint of the doomsday 2007 at all, I would say, at this early stage, so I'll take that. In fact that leaves me optimistic about the warm season!  First time GloSea5 has left me optimistic about anything for ages.

I disagree RE GLOSEA...

Geopotential heights showing a trough around the UK and the rainfall anomalies are a bit above average.

2cat_20200201_z500_months46_global_deter

2cat_20200201_prec_months46_global_deter

Ignore the temps, they almost always show above average.

Edited by CreweCold
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9 hours ago, Snow Shoes said:

Sounds bad (except for the bit about the snow ?)  I note though that the met office app is showing sustained wind speeds of 35mph and max gust of 65mph for Reykjavik on Friday which seems more on a par with Uk forecast 

Well it nearly 4 in the morning here in Reykjavik and I can tell you that the wind here is far worse than anything I experienced last weekend with storm Ciara in the UK mind you the near hurricane force Blizzard is something to behold. Gives lamp post watching a hole new meaning. The Icelandic Met adopted the met office severe weather warning system seven years ago and this the first Red warning they have ever issued for south Iceland.

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Not too much to say this morning. Storm track looks to be moving a bit further north after Dennis has rattled through as the Azores/Euro high nudges a bit closer. Remaining mild on the whole, with less rainfall around - drier the further S/E you head.

Vortex still looking strong as an Ox into the last week of February/Winter - almost 100% agreement throughout as we end the month:

image.thumb.png.647820871e29c5533c0828553310e35c.pngimage.thumb.png.a12b719c5d0ec4f645a02645a51c65aa.pngimage.thumb.png.42cbb869c4a1708e502e6dfe1b26ffce.png

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Wouldn’t surprise if the signs of a big Northerly at the end of ECM verify,we are heading to the end of winter so I would expect a big pattern change lol

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18 hours ago, snowray said:

It's my birthday on the 16th and these are the sort of charts that were more typical in mid Feb not Atlantic rubbish of recent years.

 

archives-1969-2-16-0-0.png

archives-1969-2-16-0-1.png

Although February 1969 was a very cold month and there has only been one colder February in the last 51 years.  Before that, in the previous three decades we had 1942, 1947, 1956 and 1963 that were colder.  Feb 1969 saw a similar pattern to these other cold Februarys in the middle part of last century - it was just that the extremity of the cold wasn't as great.

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i remember walking home from school in '69 because the school buses were cancelled. The snow arrived really fast and the wind blew it into drifts. It was'only' ankle deep for our three mile cross country walk home, as it had blown off the flatter areas.

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8 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I disagree RE GLOSEA...

Geopotential heights showing a trough around the UK and the rainfall anomalies are a bit above average.

2cat_20200201_z500_months46_global_deter

2cat_20200201_prec_months46_global_deter

Ignore the temps, they almost always show above average.

But actual temps have been above average, for most of the time, too, Crewe...??

Edited by General Cluster
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ens_image.php?geoid=48639&var=201&run=6&ens_image.php?geoid=48639&var=201&run=0&

So what looked like a clear signal for some early spring warmth  and maybe a settled spell of weather from the 20th to the 24 has now been lost in a lot of noise, the warm 850's not so certain and its not looking dry.

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42 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

ens_image.php?geoid=48639&var=201&run=6&ens_image.php?geoid=48639&var=201&run=0&

So what looked like a clear signal for some early spring warmth  and maybe a settled spell of weather from the 20th to the 24 has now been lost in a lot of noise, the warm 850's not so certain and its not looking dry.

What, the 06z ensembles are out already for today?  I thought that the 06z ensembles did not come out until 11.45am.

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4 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

What, the 06z ensembles are out already for today?  I thought that the 06z ensembles did not come out until 11.45am.

Yesterdays 06z Vs this mornings 0z

You can see the direction of travel.

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