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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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In the medium term the tPV -v- euro heights, on the GFS 06z the euro heights edging further north so more settled from D8-D10:

anim_alv1.gifgfseu-15-222.thumb.png.6ae3b2e1d5c1ed9a0819ed8153e820ef.png

Some anomalous higher than average uppers for a few days. All subject to change as  inter and cross model subtle differences per run, but would be welcome rather than more cold rain.

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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Post D10 similar in trend as the 0z with a trough dropping into Europe but better Atlantic profile:

anim_bni7.gif

So potential for something?

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33 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM clusters - more of the same generally. Confirmation of how unsettled this weekend is with those very tight lines - I think we've been lucky not to have had it worse, actually, one of those late developing lows could easily have occured nearer us. 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020021300_072.

Later next week - well there's the promise the Atlantic ridge will nudge a little higher, but this could easily flatten back to square one:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020021300_216.

Further out to the end of the month - with heights finally rising further west and a strong signal for a Scandi trough, you never know, a northerly might just squeeze in:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020021300_360.

 

A northerly would be quite potent with he cold air that has been bottled up this year.

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37 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM clusters - more of the same generally. Confirmation of how unsettled this weekend is with those very tight lines - I think we've been lucky not to have had it worse, actually, one of those late developing lows could easily have occured nearer us. 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020021300_072.

Later next week - well there's the promise the Atlantic ridge will nudge a little higher, but this could easily flatten back to square one:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020021300_216.

Further out to the end of the month - with heights finally rising further west and a strong signal for a Scandi trough, you never know, a northerly might just squeeze in:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020021300_360.

 

I wonder if those clusters suggest the ECM is picking up a stronger MJO signal more inline with the GEFS .

We’ll see later when that updates but at this point the last remaining hope to salvage anything decent out of this tragic excuse for a winter is I think with the GEFS view of the MJO and that making it into phase 7 and hopefully 8.

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27 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

That's some pressure anomaly

gph500_anom_20200213_00_072.jpggph500_anom_20200213_06_072.jpg

It's my birthday on the 16th and these are the sort of charts that were more typical in mid Feb not Atlantic rubbish of recent years.

 

archives-1969-2-16-0-0.png

archives-1969-2-16-0-1.png

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Some peaches from the 6z ens, what's it gonna take to just get one of these to come off this winter... 5 days would do!! I've also chucked in a couple of warm scenarios for the lovers of Spring. 

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the only way to have a lucky situation to cold weather is what was seen in the strato first week (minor warming+displacement) of febr  and the MJO now =Atlantic Blocking

 image.thumb.png.5e5bd253b9dde7093d191f80163e9eb7.pngimage.thumb.png.43199e8dd1feed61fa0b3e62f0678830.png

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Divergence will have to end soon between GFS and Euro, the Euro is showing a retreat to the circle of death within the next few days whereas GFS is amplifying phase 6. This may be leading to the discrepancy seen near the end of the day 10 period.

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Looks like we're well-and-truly in a random cluster of ghastly Tuesdays...All memory of last-year's memorable run have all but faded away...

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Windy, showery and only around 6C...Bleurgh!?

 

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Excellent consistency from the GFS as to the next 10-days pattern and quite reasonable with the overall atmospheric condition and tPV workings. So the 06z pretty much duplicated on the 12z, not as mild uppers when the HP cells moves across the UK during D8-11, before the tough descends into Europe.

T234: gfseu-0-234.thumb.png.8dea483bcb899431bee579f869dfa532.png

Let us see where FI takes us on this run?

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Interesting on this run, and maybe just algorithms awry, but wedges over the Arctic region and an Arctic high:

gfsnh-0-276.thumb.png.3a3eabefdc233e42a8e7e7e8bb3b4d10.png

I assume that is to do with the strat-trop coupling as it doesn't appear to be from the ebb and flow of features? If that is a new trend then we may see that cold spill south...

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9 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Looks like Spring is on its way! ?

spring.png

spring0.png

spring1.png

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spring3.png

Great Charts , Onwards and upwards , No need to worry about the rain , let’s have high pressure all the way and a significant warm up . If we can’t have snow let’s have some lovely sunny warm sunshine ?.

 

Lovely Double Rainbow where I am this evening .

B674FBCE-EA0D-4A31-9E66-E79B14AA35A0.jpeg

632A8606-CD82-4970-915C-F201047049B7.jpeg

Edited by Mark wheeler
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We can see the improvement with the Arctic heights:

06z>gfsnh-0-336.thumb.png.e407f4c75e20f03ba4b80470fc0246ff.png12z>gfsnh-0-330.thumb.png.c9978c21c8b21c97724b65b70f73d22d.pnggfsnh-1-348.thumb.png.d41fa8d21665429a2bb670e3612f5400.png

We get the three wave NH profile. Sadly on this run the cold enters the W.Pacific, US eastern board and E.Europe and the UK on the periphery! It is the trend that matters and the detail could change assuming this has legs.

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

All coldie eyes remain on the end of the month ……. last chance saloon ????

Still looks to me brief, they just keep struggling to ridge properly into Greenland and snap off a vortex chunk, just looks to me like the atmosphere isn't primed for blocking, that will change soon and can see blocking before March is out, that said you can still get a significant short lived snow event with some of the ensembles showing for the end of this month.

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Hi guys. As you brace yourselves for Storm Dennis. I am on the northern side of the Storm System in Reykjavik where we have a red alert for friday from the Icelandic met office for sustained winds of 68mph and gust in excess of this. The upside is that it will be accompanied by sleet and snow. 

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