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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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8 minutes ago, IDO said:

Snow from Thursday low looks low risk:

48-779UK.thumb.gif.1ae0e0d4939f3b9c484490a6d04a18f5.gif

The main story is rainfall totals and the south and south-west face flood risks:

5-day totals>126-777UK.thumb.gif.b8a6e2079be1f9e81e6c5ab7abc2f5a8.gif

Yeh at one point that band of rain struggled to reach the midlands but now goes all the way to the borders!!such a shame cos it would have been a good snow event for parts of england!!i just cant see it push any further south with such little time!!

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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Likely another weekend storm incoming and already Weather Alert for severe winds in the S/SE/SW and other areas for over 24h:

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Now named as Storm Dennis.

Edited by IDO
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GFS 06z mirroring the 0z with height rises for UK after D7?:

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The op may drag the mean further north with the settled conditions but fronts close to Scotland but fizzle out if they sink south. So for my locale dry and cool trending dry and mild and back to dry and cool after D7?.

Subject to change as FI and small changes could change where the fronts cross, but as of the 06z settled for most of England and Wales.

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3 minutes ago, IDO said:

GFS 06z mirroring the 0z with height rises for UK after D7?:

anim_atg2.gif

The op may drag the mean further north with the settled conditions but fronts close to Scotland but fizzle out if they sink south. So for my locale dry and cool trending dry and mild and back to dry and cool after D7?.

Subject to change as FI and small changes could change where the fronts cross, but as of the 06z settled for most of England and Wales.

And almost certainly will verify, another February heatwave coming up. If it was showing any northern blocking it would have disappeared by the 12z runs.

Look at them temps for 12.00, be mid to high teens in places by the afternoon.

 

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Nowt much chance of lowland snow, on Thursday, methinks?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

The weekend looks a tad stormy:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

The following weekend looks a tad more pleasant:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And the far-reaches of FI? Who cares!?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Early days but both the GFS and Euro operational runs are largely in sync with a pressure build from day 8. That might suggest that winter will end with more of a whimper than some may have feared. 

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8 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Early days but both the GFS and Euro operational runs are largely in sync with a pressure build from day 8. That might suggest that winter will end with more of a whimper than some may have feared. 

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Ensemble support growing for this:

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Much drier for the last 10 days of the month, with high(er) pressure keeping things  much quieter.

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Looks like wintry showers some heavy will continue tonight into tomorrow for parts of northwest England Scotland and northern Ireland in particular with some fairly significant additional accumulations possible on hills although this becomes confined to parts of Scotland later tomorrow as it turns drier elsewhere. ?

Gfs..?

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Risk of snow on the northern edge of a low pressure system moving east or southeastwards during Thursday as I've seen Phil has mentioned above, very windy conditions likely for the southwest and the coast with this for a time while this system weakens as well as heavy rain moving through many areas. 

Icon.. ?

06_51_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.9a9e8f595422ec3b5df72694743eb855.png

So another storm on the way for next weekend but looks like the centre will stay to the Northwest of the UK while developing rapidly but the frontal system associated with this could be potent. The centre may end up closer to Scotland and Northern Ireland giving some very strong winds here on Saturday too but some uncertainty with this part, the main focus on very strong winds is on England and Wales for Saturday perhaps into sunday too, this all once again from a very strong jetstream perhaps over 200mph. 

wind300kt_20200211_06_105.thumb.jpg.d9bbe8bdbaf2260e476e3c4edab8c31a.jpg

wind300kt_20200211_06_117.thumb.jpg.5fac97a8e5bb416b3bc38abdf5cac160.jpg

Gfs wind gusts.. ?

481446131_EUROPE_PRMSL_GUST_108(3).thumb.jpg.8819e95a44f52862e34e2b0c21d09dc8.jpg

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There could be one or two wave depressions forming along the southern part of storm Dennis which could bring lengthier periods of very strong winds through sunday even once the main frontal system has cleared to the east, this would also bring the risk of quite a lot of rain through Sunday too for central and southern areas. 

Signs of it turning drier for central and southern parts of the UK at least for early next week but showery conditions probably continue for northern Ireland and Scotland in particular these may be wintry too. 

Edited by jordan smith
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icon-0-138.png?11-12

Looks windy on Monday after Dennis on Saturday according to the ICON.

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Not as amplified as the 0z , I wounder if the GFS will follow suite. Promised amplification has been put back a lot recently.

Edited by frosty ground
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Please not another wild goose chase !

Both the GFS and the UKMO roughly on the same page at day 6 . The mid Atlantic high ready to push ne if the upstream pattern allows for that .

 

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