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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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2 hours ago, timboy666 said:

Good Morning all

The models good very interesting I can see potential for snow shows in the south on high ground.in the next coming days.

Doesn’t look likely to me. Only in the north and west.

Almost time to call last orders on this winter. Nothing of note showing up in the models for the next couple of weeks, which almost takes us out of February. Bye bye 19/20 season, you won’t be missed.

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1 hour ago, Dennis said:

euro4 /gfs later today ; snow possible 

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You can see the persistent area of precip appearing over wales and pushing west. With current obs I would say sleet (at best) south of Leeds on low ground and some wet snow above 200m. Evaporative cooling will help in any heavier bursts 

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15 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

You can see the persistent area of precip appearing over wales and pushing west. With current obs I would say sleet (at best) south of Leeds on low ground and some wet snow above 200m. Evaporative cooling will help in any heavier bursts 

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Bit concerning for areas across the midlands if just the Highest points of Wicklow Mountains are red. 

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Just the Model Output Discussion in here please, For where it will/won't snow please use the regionals.

Or even this thread for nowcasting, Thanks all.

 

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9 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

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Storm Dennis this weekend? Looking nasty once again across the whole of the UK 

Now the debate about upgrades and downgrades ... including the potential of Friday's storm .. which could come closer to the UK o,o a double battering in Scotland next weekend?

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A few posts have had to go, No snow reports in here please, Just model discussion, Thanks again.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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5 hours ago, MKN said:

What are people's thoughts on the potential for our next named storm (storm Dennis) arriving this weekend?

In short - I don't like the look of it, especially on Saturday according to the ECM:

Maximum Gusts at:

1600     xx_model-en-339-0_modez_2020021000_135_18_93.thumb.png.f78c03b7df125656d4b4820f9aa801f0.png

1900     xx_model-en-339-0_modez_2020021000_138_18_93.thumb.png.7ace99ad1e668168c2126ac1823dddc4.png

2200     xx_model-en-339-0_modez_2020021000_141_18_93.thumb.png.ec61055c2ef629ef91babfbdf5d11acc.png

24 hours rainfall total by Sunday 0700:

             xx_model-en-339-0_modez_2020021000_150_18_63.thumb.png.42de6807aee6b63ddb8744baa367ee24.png

This could go either way but this is not the worst prediction among the models as of today.  I could do without a repeat of this weekend, and will be hoping for significant downgrades....   The chances of a memorable wintry spell are now evaporating fast as these vigorous Atlantic depressions continue to form and track their way to us.  

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I hope all who have the snow are enjoying it, only a few flakes here so far.. I'm quite interested in the 6z ens today, a fair few runs going for some more colder shots around the 20th or thereafter! Hopefully we can squeeze a little more like out this fast dying winter yet.. 

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Gfs keeping the wintry flavour going, at least for high ground but nothing out of the ordinary for the time of year.. Yet. 

Hopefully we have seen the end of the Azores high for the rest of the winter and hopefully the first half of spring where decent snow is still possible for everyone. 

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There is quiet a few gefs ens amplifying a ridge in the Atlantic in fl,something to keep an eye on in subsequent runs,MJO phase 7-8 would favor this. 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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2 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

I hope all who have the snow are enjoying it, only a few flakes here so far.. I'm quite interested in the 6z ens today, a fair few runs going for some more colder shots around the 20th or thereafter! Hopefully we can squeeze a little more like out this fast dying winter yet.. 

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Nothing here sadly in the south East not even a wet flake. Jealous of those up north as at this rate we are very unlikely to see anything. So as. Far as gfs goes, it gets it right as it showed no precipitation of the snow variety reaching Kent. Shame. 

Edited by Snowfish2
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Well, this 'Storm Denis' looks interesting. Having looked at the models, it may not be as violent as Storm Ciara, but definitely something to watch out for!

Edited by Zak M
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