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Model output discussion 02/02/20

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1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

O

UKMO model?

Yeah

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11 hours ago, carinthian said:

Yes Chris, the high res run showed this earlier in the week and for it to be dropped like the speed of a stone from the heavens next run.  Unfortunately for us lovers of the promise of cold , the ECM Ens having northing to do with any blocking as the picture below continues to pump mild air into Euroland with some amazing upper 850mb temps in the mix , especially over Alpine countries by day 10. Maybe an extreme of the model outputs though.

C

gh500_20200208_00_240.jpg

No surprise that ECM reverts back to form and drops any sign of blocking on the 12z run at 240t ( chart below ) However, GFsS op still holds a beacon of light with its last two runs but will it still show heights building to the NE in the next few runs? 

ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

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1 hour ago, carinthian said:

No surprise that ECM reverts back to form and drops any sign of blocking on the 12z run at 240t ( chart below ) However, GFsS op still holds a beacon of light with its last two runs but will it still show heights building to the NE in the next few runs? 

ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

Yes, I agree, although to be fair, that chart you've posted does have a chance of some amplification. But it probably won't look like that on the 18th anyway

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late Febr could show the way .....

 

image.thumb.png.5f1b28363f08a58b49c8280a43ce87ef.png

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The models still messing around with that low to the nw around day 4. 

The GFS has a weaker feature this time and desperately tries to separate it cleanly from the upstream trough .

Doesn't quite manage it here but if that happens then those weak height rises Steve M has just mentioned would be able to exert a bit more forcing and be further south .

Upstream the GFS has edged a bit towards the ECM.

Its quite a complicated picture upstream . Unlikely to be a reprieve from the PV but the transition bit is still looking a bit uncertain .

The GFS holds onto those weak heights south Greenland even after the PV assault ! This is good news and has the jet further south than the ECM .

Edited by nick sussex
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5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The models still messing around with that low to the nw around day 4. 

The GFS has a weaker feature this time and desperately tries to separate it cleanly from the upstream trough .

Doesn't quite manage it here but if that happens then those weak height rises Steve M has just mentioned would be able to exert a bit more forcing and be further south .

Upstream the GFS has edged a bit towards the ECM.

Its quite a complicated picture upstream . Unlikely to be a reprieve from the PV but the transition bit is still looking a bit uncertain .

My word you need to see the differences around the uk from the 00z run to the 18z run!!compare the 114 hours chart on the 18z to the 132 hour chart from the 00z!!chalk and cheese!!any more changes and things could be looking a little more interesting 5 days from now!!

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image.thumb.png.0356fdd908e41dadb42251a5f0b97fda.pngsome is building in NE europe

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Some very interesting GFS charts this morning within the 10day range. Could it be down to the GEFS MJO forecast going towards higher amplitude phase 7?

On a personal note I'm travelling up to York in the next few hours from Kent wish me luck!!

Also I work on the trains and my company advised people not to use the trains today as you may get stranded if as expected the disruption for Ciara does occur. Tomorrow could be a few issues also take care everyone!

20200209_045240.jpg

20200209_045224.jpg

20200209_045212.jpg

20200209_045427.jpg

Edited by Kentspur
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Meanwhile in the short term 100% chance of snow on GFS this has slowly been upgrading each run lately. The images attached are for London and North Yorkshire surely we must see something wintry even down South? Upper air temps minus 7 on both roughly 

20200209_051839.jpg

20200209_051825.jpg

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Probably the best gfs run of the winter! However, the entire run is influenced by the southerly tracking low at just 96hrs which allows a small ridge to form in its wake, which if you follow the run rides north of the vortex, sending further lows on a southerly track and eventually around day 8 joins the atlantic ridge. The ukmo doesnt develop the small ridge and looks to send the low at 96hrs further north. If the ukmo is correct the remainder of the gfs is garbage....  

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26 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

In a good way?

More of the same weather type >\

wind > Rain & occasional snow over elevation.

FI consistent but ECM very different.

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A quick look at another ECM height fail, today -v- yesterday:

ECE1-144.thumb.gif.f9f07eb0ab187e9173e070a9861df087.gif301213601_ECE1-168(2).thumb.gif.3d2d82a5522e2a7cba169b260401a0ad.gif

A further step towards the GFS outlook which GFS spotted 48h before ECM. The advantage with the GFS forecast was that it was clearing the tPV vortex from the NW giving the Atlantic a breathing space for the euro high to be sucked to, whereas the ECM was predicting more euro heights.

Some good run showing up with that potential on the GFS, so promising, but too early to be more than just hopeful that later in February we will get a sustained seasonal spell. As others have posted, great charts showing up. See how that goes.

The GFS 0z showing a significant wet spell incoming focus mainly in western regions, with snow at times possible anywhere; totals:

240-777UK.thumb.gif.b8b2230d2ca8606c0b6e709b3d31dec4.gif

Several storms looking likely but again too far out to be certain, at T180:

1319989549_gfseu-0-180(1).thumb.png.ebff689708b313d2f346bdc4b6f79c03.png180-289UK.thumb.gif.dd2fd35a384c01f318a971712a338950.gif

This looks like a change in pattern so model clarity may be lacking for a day or so as they get on the same song sheet.

Keep safe.

 

Edited by IDO
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more snow seen into monday/tuesday image.thumb.png.7582ca6f41f8a6c359f26c89b7d79d80.pngimage.thumb.png.36530965ffa1faa66edf3d3d24fd28cd.png

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21 minutes ago, IDO said:

A quick look at another ECM height fail, today -v- yesterday:

ECE1-144.thumb.gif.f9f07eb0ab187e9173e070a9861df087.gif301213601_ECE1-168(2).thumb.gif.3d2d82a5522e2a7cba169b260401a0ad.gif

A further step towards the GFS outlook which GFS spotted 48h before ECM. The advantage with the GFS forecast was that it was clearing the tPV vortex from the NW giving the Atlantic a breathing space for the euro high to be sucked to, whereas the ECM was predicting more euro heights.

Some good run showing up with that potential on the GFS, so promising, but too early to be more than just hopeful that later in February we will get a sustained seasonal spell. As others have posted, great charts showing up. See how that goes.

The GFS 0z showing a significant wet spell incoming focus mainly in western regions, with snow at times possible anywhere; totals:

240-777UK.thumb.gif.b8b2230d2ca8606c0b6e709b3d31dec4.gif

Several storms looking likely but again too far out to be certain, at T180:

1319989549_gfseu-0-180(1).thumb.png.ebff689708b313d2f346bdc4b6f79c03.png180-289UK.thumb.gif.dd2fd35a384c01f318a971712a338950.gif

This looks like a change in pattern so model clarity may be lacking for a day or so as they get on the same song sheet.

Keep safe.

 

Arpege goes with the gfs at 96 hours and slides the low across southern england!!looks like  the catalyst is that low!!if it slides favourably then everything goes south with it!!you can see this morning have edged the jet stream slightly south and east afterwards similar to gfs!!

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7 minutes ago, shaky said:

Arpege goes with the gfs at 96 hours and slides the low across southern england!!looks like  the catalyst is that low!!if it slides favourably then everything goes south with it!!you can see this morning have edged the jet stream slightly south and east afterwards similar to gfs!!

Yes, that low is a trigger. As it dives SE the warm sector following sends a wedge of heights towards Iceland. This acts as a small block and the following westerly flow is better directed:

gfseu-0-156.thumb.png.0bacd3d5a16a3fd7756c713868b46036.png 

ECM and GEM different so my confidence is limited.

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Fascinating run from GFS with the little wedge of  high pressure ahead of the trough actually moves anti-clockwise around the trough eventually settling around Iceland! 

008A8973-399E-4E2A-A191-4420929A426E.thumb.png.139022d67ae9e7f2109db1193c511fa5.png9A0D5CBA-53D3-4516-98C7-7E13DECFC091.thumb.png.41be7efb9aee3de1656fb40279ce3f92.png3D025689-2B8A-4769-8990-AD3B7AF91002.thumb.png.728d58a4c9c652c2a67058d69fccd6eb.pngF37CAB7C-36DD-4C4F-B69F-28C0346B1087.thumb.png.883b720e69b06d5829eac5eb6ba8be95.png1EC34BBF-1D2C-42D1-B93A-C856F86C048C.thumb.png.ba69fea9289202bf224227c3d1552ec1.png90B3E1CC-AA68-47FB-B852-2F46BD0A25D6.thumb.png.c6792ae4d893df961ce8c6b86eb1e3e8.png

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The 0z gfs looks good but I am not getting carried away. Ukmo and ECM look horrid again.

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1 hour ago, Dennis said:

more snow seen into monday/tuesday image.thumb.png.7582ca6f41f8a6c359f26c89b7d79d80.pngimage.thumb.png.36530965ffa1faa66edf3d3d24fd28cd.png

No snow ‘seen’, Monday hasn’t happened yet.  

I highly doubt this is correct looking at the temps.  

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13 hours ago, carinthian said:

No surprise that ECM reverts back to form and drops any sign of blocking on the 12z run at 240t ( chart below ) However, GFsS op still holds a beacon of light with its last two runs but will it still show heights building to the NE in the next few runs? 

ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

The hunt for some proper cold weather continues. May I offer this winter chart from GFS at 312t to feast your eyes over. GFS continues a consistency in its runs showing some type of blocking to develop from 240t in the operational model charts. Little support shown from the other main models though.

overview_20200209_00_312.jpg

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Whats this little fellow going to do stay there will be ideal.

image.thumb.png.94f50cb1fa64e407b734f7e77b683149.png

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14 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Whats this little fellow going to do stay there will be ideal.

image.thumb.png.94f50cb1fa64e407b734f7e77b683149.png

Has that moved further south on the 06z or further north!!

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