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Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
14 minutes ago, emmett garland said:

If the GFS is to be believed Ireland is in for Armageddon this week

Yes... And that's the million dollar question, we all know how the good old GFS overstates the precipitation!! But taking a glance, Ireland is looking buried, and also plenty of the dandruff in W/NW areas to... Gonna be some serious lamp post watching this coming week in places! Give me snow god dam it..

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06_60_preciptype.png

06_69_preciptype.png

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06_105_preciptype.png

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, IDO said:

Yep, no idea which is correct!

The GFS op still has a feature close to your area on Monday early evening that could offer a ray of hope:

60-779UK.thumb.gif.c6f41927f31d43e1a866adf0566d48b9.gif

Been on a few runs and getting close enough to be interesting.

Looks very interesting indeed!!looks like a very stretched out band of snow across the whole of the midlands!!could not be anymore perfectly placed to be honest!!

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
13 minutes ago, IDO said:

Yep, no idea which is correct!

The GFS op still has a feature close to your area on Monday early evening that could offer a ray of hope:

60-779UK.thumb.gif.c6f41927f31d43e1a866adf0566d48b9.gif

Been on a few runs and getting close enough to be interesting.

Are there any accumulations associated with this band of snow?

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
1 minute ago, shaky said:

Are there any accumulations associated with this band of snow?

1 or 2cm according to the GFS

image.thumb.png.a7b6cf8f5e7cada056348ed2a86f2863.png

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
1 minute ago, shaky said:

Are there any accumulations associated with this band of snow?

...

60-780UK.thumb.gif.07490145fb16a55f73287d534f621e02.gif

GFS keeps to their script at D6:

1286620319_gfseu-0-144(1).thumb.png.b6cf09566923dcd9a3bc3c2a6be6c88a.png

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
23 minutes ago, IDO said:

Yep, no idea which is correct!

The GFS op still has a feature close to your area on Monday early evening that could offer a ray of hope:

60-779UK.thumb.gif.c6f41927f31d43e1a866adf0566d48b9.gif

Been on a few runs and getting close enough to be interesting.

Is ecm showing anything similar?

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Is ecm showing anything similar?

GEM has, timing slightly different:

anim_uot4.gif

You can see the kink in the flow. The uppers are more warmed out on the GEM so currently showing as rain. Too early to be confident either way. ECM do not have the 6h charts to pinpoint it.

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
12 minutes ago, shaky said:

Is ecm showing anything similar?

Not really just a more organised area of mainly rain showers. 

1722441787_overview_20200208_00_060(2).thumb.jpg.9159f86dc72e18c8b917e3a552245add.jpg

1878516078_overview_20200208_00_063(2).thumb.jpg.a72b0a665b83df298b6db097a056485f.jpg

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

So, after nine-days' problems with rain, wind and snow (for details await 20-20 hindsight!:oldgood:) we arrive at the much-fabled Day 10:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Is that a slight relaxation of the zonal westerlies, I ask myself? And if it is --- haven't we been 'there' before?

Edited by General Cluster
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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

The 6z decides its time for a scandi high in the long range can’t see any support for it hopefully a trend setter. Easterly incoming 

82ADF626-B7C4-4C6B-AC06-C7A9388256BC.png

Edited by seabreeze86
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Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m

The jet is being pushed south again on the GFS 06z with the suppression of the Euro high. Cool, wet and windy which to me at least, is better than mild, wet and windy.

High pressure to attempts to build in but that's way out in la la land. 

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31 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

The 6z decides its time for a scandi high in the long range can’t see any support for it hopefully a trend setter. Easterly incoming 

82ADF626-B7C4-4C6B-AC06-C7A9388256BC.png

Morning peeps,

This trend to an Easterly has been showing for quite some time now. I recall back at the end of January watching one of Gavs videos that this trend was showing up more as we headed towards the last third of February. I know it's in dreamland but if this was to by any 1 percent chance to verefy then I am sure us coldies would forgive winter. The thing that has got me is that we are now seeing quite a lot of outputs I know it's la la land but the jet is trying to dig south.

We are in a very changeable pattern and any small changes can have an effect upstream. I think for now it's no point looking more than 3 days ahead. 

My heart cries if only winter for once you can just bring us that cold Easterly how happy us coldies will be. Who knows what holds from an Easterly it may be record high temperatures we just don't know what the heavens above have got lined up for us. 8th of Feb today and that winter click is ticking on we now need a desperate breakthrough come on winter you can do it for us we waiting such a long time for you.

We cling on to the final road ahead to end this season.

wishing you a great day

stay safe 

regards

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Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl

spacer.pngTableaux GEFS 6z 850 hPa

 

GEFS 6z have actually upgraded the uppers for the period 11th - 12th Feb with a lot more of the  -7 isotherm across the UK. Surprise snowfall for a few i expect ( especially at decent elevation )

spacer.pngGEFS 6z mean @ t102

and not a bad mean either.

Edited by Jeremy Shockey
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The GFS 06 hrs run is not interested in the ECM solution upto day 6 and we see a divergence as early as day 4 over the USA and Canada .

The models seem to be making a huge drama trying to work out the interaction of shortwaves and phasing there .

In the grand scheme of things these early differences aren’t important in terms of destination which will see the PV trying to reform to the north .

The issue isn’t so much it reforming but how long that lasts for . GFS ops in recent days have quite quickly disrupted that .

In terms of the ECM although its day ten still has the reformed PV its an improvement on recent runs. The orientation is better ,elongated and the jet angle more se as high pressure to the ne puts pressure on the PV .

What we don’t want to see is the rounded PV blob to the north , that’s major trouble if that keeps that shape for too long . The rounded PV to the north basically means it’s got its deck chair , and sombrero and is ordering cocktails from the bar and has no intention of checking out anytime soon ! 

The GFS 06 hrs run in FI does look interesting but best to stick to max day ten because with four runs a day it can always find a solution that keeps coldies away from the helpline ! 

I’m slightly less irritated with today’s outputs than I was yesterday ! So a small improvement! 

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
2 hours ago, PerfectStorm said:

1 or 2cm according to the GFS

image.thumb.png.a7b6cf8f5e7cada056348ed2a86f2863.png

1481576516_Euro4SnowAccumilation.thumb.gif.081a0ccb7cea62691a8556fb7510bcde.gif

Euro 4 Snow Accumulation by lunchtime Monday.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GFS 06Z operational run is clearly on the colder end of the ensembles:

t850Bedfordshire.png    prmslBedfordshire.png

t2mBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

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Posted
  • Location: Italian / Swiss Alps (Lake Como / St Moritz)
  • Location: Italian / Swiss Alps (Lake Como / St Moritz)
3 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Its going to feel like -4c tuesday maybe -6c in those strong westerlies.

image.thumb.png.973a43fde91f0d26f83e00bab0046333.png

 

But it won't, really, will it?

It doesn't matter how fast the wind is blowing, 5 degrees never, ever "feels" anything like minus 5.

5 degrees in a gale is just really, really vile, and much worse.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Hmmm little shortwave in the atlantic slides across southern england between 96 and 120 hours on ukmo!!big difference comapred to the 144  chart from yesterday and a massive step towards ecm!!gfs also edging slowly towards ecm between 96 hour and 144 hours!!hopefully gfs 12z keeps the jet further south after that!lets see!arpege now joins ecm and ukmo as well!!

Edited by shaky
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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
56 minutes ago, halny said:

But it won't, really, will it?

It doesn't matter how fast the wind is blowing, 5 degrees never, ever "feels" anything like minus 5.

5 degrees in a gale is just really, really vile, and much worse.

Sorry but its showing 1 to 3c further west.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

In that kind of sunshine-and-showers setup, particularly into February as the sun starts getting stronger, a max temperature of 5C tends to imply that it will drop quite a bit in any heavier showers and is consistent with the showers being wintry in nature with potential for snow at low levels in any heavier showers.  It does also imply that any lying snow won't last long in the sunny intervals in between the showers, though.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
7 minutes ago, shaky said:

Hmmm little shortwave in the atlantic slides across southern england between 96 and 120 hours on ukmo!!big difference comapred to the 144  chart from yesterday and a massive step towards ecm!!gfs also edging slowly towards ecm between 96 hour and 144 hours!!hopefully gfs 12z keeps the jet further south after that!lets see!

Not too sure that the GFS has moved towards the ECM. AT D8:

ECM 0z>ECE101-192.thumb.gif.54393f1f711114f2e38dc8106ac84f43.gif 

GFS 12z>gfseu-12-180.thumb.png.299ec4479dc689dcfbbe85b90c08efe8.png

GFS 06z >gfseu-12-186.thumb.png.23931bb7231f2230a1c61bfa9080b555.png

Still consistency from GFS, though whether it is correct we shall see later? Staying westerly with the tPV blob gradually moving across to our north after D8. Mini-ridge (warm sectors) but no sign of the transient ridge as on the ECM.

See how FI goes compared to 06z?

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