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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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To get a good polar maritime zonal setup, you need the Jetstream to track across northern France, no secondary lows or shortwaves to spin up (these can cut off or modify polar maritime air in the UK), and preferably the airflow to come from a source between Iceland and Greenland, as if it takes a longer sea track across the Atlantic it becomes heavily modified and less cold.  A favourably orientated polar maritime zonal flow can deliver much snowfall for Scotland down the Pennines through northern England, but for lowland southern Britain it is usually rain.  I do not think that even the great polar maritime zonal spell in January 1984 brought much in the way of snow to lowland southern Britain, even though it was an excellent wintry spell further north.

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12 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Perhaps a bit of action for you jules going by the ECM mean.. Nice little cold plunge pushing south into your neck of the woods. Do post some pics to us snow starved Britain's ?ECM mean says perhaps cool zonality, perhaps colder enough for snow at height further North at times... Other than that, I'm seriously gerrin bored.. For the love of God... Somebody please hit the Factory reset button on the NH profile. 

 

 

It is very much a nowcast situation with tomorrow re. snow potential, could be 10cm like EC or nothing as per GFS, then some nice frost to follow before some cold zonality hopefully

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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

00z runs promoting a snowy polar maritime flow for the NW 

?

Most likely will involve elevation..

 

Nearer the time this often gets pushed further North though.

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17 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I do not think that even the great polar maritime zonal spell in January 1984 brought much in the way of snow to lowland southern Britain, even though it was an excellent wintry spell further north.

I remember a spell of heavy wet snow giving a layer of slush from a cold westerly flow one evening that month living in Kent, it became ingrained in my mind even though I was young, as it was an unusual direction to get snow from. 

Anyway, less likely this time round. Long way off I know, but given an uninterrupted WNWly flow from NE Canada to southern Greenland, 00z EC shows how it could be quite snowy Tuesday next week in exposed western areas, Ireland/ N. Ireland, western Scotland, west Wales and NW England.

ECMWF_186_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png

 

 

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 Jan 1984 was very snowy for the North of the UK, with lowland snowfall at times and extreme conditions for the Highlands, even here we saw snow falling. 

I'd take that after what has been a pathetic winter so far. 

So could be an exciting end to the winter season, if the models are still going for it by end of the week. 

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4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

 Jan 1984 was very snowy for the North of the UK, with lowland snowfall at times and extreme conditions for the Highlands, even here we saw snow falling. 

I'd take that after what has been a pathetic winter so far. 

So could be an exciting end to the winter season, if the models are still going for it by end of the week. 

That month saw a spell of weather that in my opinion, would have cold lovers tearing their hair out, when any zonal spell develops in a UK winter, that only brings mild dross of tropical maritime air.  January 1984 shows what a zonal spell with virtually no northern blocking, can bring in the UK if the orientation of the zonal flow is on a favourable NW-SE track.

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27 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

 Jan 1984 was very snowy for the North of the UK, with lowland snowfall at times and extreme conditions for the Highlands, even here we saw snow falling. 

I'd take that after what has been a pathetic winter so far. 

So could be an exciting end to the winter season, if the models are still going for it by end of the week. 

Indeed - January 1984 was a classic. I lived in Bradford at the time and the snow was amazing. I think we'd all take that given what we've endured so far with 'winter'. Will be closely watching the models this week!

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4 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Indeed - January 1984 was a classic. I lived in Bradford at the time and the snow was amazing. I think we'd all take that given what we've endured so far with 'winter'. Will be closely watching the models this week!

I just had a look at some charts from 1984 and I just don't see it.

still the stormy weather will certainly be an interesting watch if a secondary low spins whilst crossing the country.

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1 hour ago, jules216 said:

It is very much a nowcast situation with tomorrow re. snow potential, could be 10cm like EC or nothing as per GFS, then some nice frost to follow before some cold zonality hopefully

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Struggling with the chart...

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1 minute ago, Beanz said:

Struggling with the chart...

near the top left corner is my location which I highlighted in green circle, EC is showing snow depth around 7cm until Wednesday morning,but it is very close and depends on the trajectory of a small low pressure area

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Could be fair to say most of the main 00Z operational models this morning - the ECMWF, GFS and GEM - go for for quite a powerful Westerly flow over the UK from around 168 hours, onwards. 

However, it generally seems to be more of the chillier kind with Polar Maritime air-masses invading more than the Tropical Maritime flows from the South West. In these setups, high ground Northern and Western UK are the No.1 spots from this setups for sleet or snow. But is possible since the models, especially the GFS, shows some very low heights accompanying these Polar Maritime (possibly odd bit of Arctic Maritime) flows...

0A671D14-8AEB-4495-AE14-C0CA8605F0C2.thumb.png.af5705d9c4f013724b86c60ed3400fbb.png6E3038A1-7ECF-4BE2-9549-9EF09494928C.thumb.png.b14f6b66545f1c103186deda5fd288f3.png

...showers could be wintry, even to fairly modest levels. Particularly with periods of -5*C and slightly colder 850 hPa temperatures, spreading East through the UK at times. Windy and blustery too thanks to the intensity of these big Lows. The strong winds could bring some of these showers, (wintry again on high ground and possibly to lower levels at times), further inland. Especially again thanks to the low 500mb heights making the flow unstable.

Some of these flows could always become less powerful and get shifted further North closer to 00 hours, though I think for a number of the cold and wintry fans, the outlook could probably be (loads) worse. 

Before that possibility, the models are unearthing a drier, more settled, period from mid week this week. The 00Z GFS from tomorrow showing the Atlantic High Pressure moving Eastwards over the UK. The cool, showery, North-Westerly flow getting cut off. 
1111A19E-78A9-438B-ABA5-4CB4B39B2262.thumb.png.696d5c47edc90c48d13f172b0020fb86.pngCC87A1D3-548D-4E80-A19E-E58E5C00DB72.thumb.png.32ebd15e16e3c4060ea5cbd2d03c3e47.png
 

The High Pressure then looks to get knocked further East into mainland Europe being under pressure from the strong Lows out West in the Atlantic. 

B03E0C33-BDC6-4828-9931-7D131B536F5F.thumb.png.902ffd0e03be3f897ec4aca551658be5.pngB507A12F-8C5E-48E5-A071-387CCE86D7C0.thumb.png.1dd14460dd6cdf12dcb63e17d6ead288.png
 

Atlantic busting back through towards the weekend with wet weather returning to the North West of the UK (though the timing of this could still change)

4F92F02F-CC40-445F-A683-81248548E615.thumb.png.5d6c3f658eea76fbcc314ff500548663.png

The most settled and driest conditions towards the South with the settled conditions likely to last the longest towards Eastern and South-Eastern UK. High Pressure influential enough to give Northern UK a break from some rain and showers, also. 

C3DC1845-3AA9-4934-BEF1-72AD27AC2221.thumb.png.836cd4c7eb9f40a6ceeb5892f74c0d33.png

Nights could be chilly too, perhaps with a chance of some mist or fog, as High Pressure picks up a slack flow from the continent. 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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10 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Cold zonal outlook looks the form horse with small low disturbances from a polar sauce,could give some 

white stuff even to the south.Intersting next week coming up best chance this winter for something wintery.

 

Mmmm..... Polar Sauce

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Long way out but a system like this has potential for storms, snow and flooding:

gfseuw-0-210.thumb.png.e2ab8c0c6ac9986544627824dd2ce1c5.pnggfseuw-2-210.thumb.png.e80b13702c519d74e37fc82dcac4f1c6.png

Certainly consistent output from GFS and Met looks to be saying high probability. Scotland could get a dumping.

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2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Long way out but a system like this has potential for storms, snow and flooding:

gfseuw-0-210.thumb.png.e2ab8c0c6ac9986544627824dd2ce1c5.pnggfseuw-2-210.thumb.png.e80b13702c519d74e37fc82dcac4f1c6.png

Certainly consistent output from GFS and Met looks to be saying high probability. Scotland could get a dumping.

210-515UK.GIF?03-6

Interesting output white or wet.

Get a Kite and a sledge!

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4 minutes ago, IDO said:

Long way out but a system like this has potential for storms, snow and flooding:

 

Certainly consistent output from GFS and Met looks to be saying high probability. Scotland could get a dumping.

It certainly could if 6z is right, in that case the contingency planners should be seriously thinking about the consequences.

image.thumb.png.d248455c2d0529e7fe5958f6114df8f7.pngimage.thumb.png.0cb8a499f638192294f6b9e325a152d8.png

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