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phil nw.

Model output discussion 02/02/20

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Suffice to say, all conjecture at this range. I’d also go along and say more 2019 than 2018 too, just because of how strong the PV/AO has been through winter. Just got a hunch it will collapse down to very late northern blocking through late spring, much like last year. 

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18z GFS not backing down from the more southerly tracking jet, westerlies and low heights hugging the UK in the medium range. Quite unlike ECM, looks quite stormy still continuing into next weekend, with cold Pm air in the mix, so further hill snow likely and perhaps lower elevations at times in Scotland. 

Edited by Nick F
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The GFS still bringing the jet further south than the ECM and most of the GEFS .

Earlier some quite cold air tucks in behind the front clearing se associated with the low pressure at around day 5 .

A chance of some back edge snow especially over higher ground . 

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Still a big cold pool to the North, this winter might be over but this year is still NOT yet - you never know.

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Just now, nick sussex said:

The GFS still bringing the jet further south than the ECM and most of the GEFS .

Earlier some quite cold air tucks in behind the front clearing se associated with the low pressure at around day 5 .

A chance of some back edge snow especially over higher ground . 

Lol  that sounded like a ramp in this dismissal winter  nick 

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Just now, weirpig said:

Lol  that sounded like a ramp in this dismissal winter  nick 

Very funny! 

I’m doing my best but it’s hard going . That PV needs to do one , it’s seriously getting on my nerves now ! 

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Not just the winds to worry about quiet alot of rain over the next 48 hours or so

ukprec-3.png

ukprec-7.png

ukprec-6.png

ukprec-5.png

ukprec-4.png

ukprec-10.png

ukprec-9.png

ukprec-8.png

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Today's operationals highlighting when amplification is not necessarily a good thing, when in the wrong place.

EC and GEM amplify the flow upstream on the back of the mid week lows, but because that low moving out into the NW Atlantic deepens big time, it heads NE to Iceland and not east to merge with its predecessor. So we end up with the mid-week low legging it quickly into SE Europe, opening up the door for the Azores high to extend in across Europe, like a relative you don't get on with who you thought you'd seen the back of after they last outstayed their welcome comes back to visit for a few weeks. 

Yes the PV continues to hug us on the GFS, but at least it offers contination of average to cold at times, with threat of some wintriness, particularly on the back of passing systems or northern flank of any southerly tracking lows. Surely better than mild southwesterlies offered by EC and GEM, though the ensembles back this outcome for now.

Edited by Nick F
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Yes the end of the gfs run is what we have been waiting all winter long. 

Could it just verify all the way down to 0 hours as we would be looking at very cold weather onwards from then

 

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Quite a big difference between t144 on gfs and ukmo for our part of the world even tho the nh profile is not dissimilar. I’ll take the ukmo please, strong winds and heavy rain is not my bag. Only one type of storm I like, a snow storm?
 

edit and ecm has different take from the other two. At t168 the difference is huge. Might not know what it’s going to be like in a weeks time but at least we know what June’s going to be like??

54AB4402-5E45-4607-8E50-733293A99663.png

29FBC4D8-7BEA-4008-987A-6127B9EFC72C.png

F92EB3FC-3307-4A08-B7B5-B1643C3DD161.png

469BE74E-9EA2-4115-BC34-374173446AB6.png

419CACE5-B99B-40A7-B069-3A32AF58EC4B.png

Edited by That ECM
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And just to really rub the salt in, just when we get the cold air across the uk (Tuesday) its pradominantly dry away from the far north...(Met also going for a sunny and dry tuesday)

 

 

PPVM89-2.gif

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5 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Yes the end of the gfs run is what we have been waiting all winter long. 

Could it just verify all the way down to 0 hours as we would be looking at very cold weather onwards from then

 

No chance of any cold charts verifying - remember it’s winter 2019-20 ?

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The GFS op keeps to the stormy westerly outlook with brief NW'ly flows at times. Counted eight storms during the 16 days! As we go through the run the mini-ridges become more noticeable.

D8-16> anim_ccu4.gif

Maybe something different as we move towards March? The GEFS have moved towards the consistent op westerly pattern though still some variation. The GEM has moved away from the ECM Atlantic trough so by D10:

gemnh-0-240.thumb.png.4dc02ebb968efd8fc021442041b90abb.png

Not dissimilar to the GFS op modus operandi. I think that the main question is how far south the jet will go, maybe a N/S split possible? ECM really struggling of late and not really paying any attention to post-D6, but it has moved away from the SW flow at D10 yesterday to a NW/Westerly zonal flow this morning!

ECE1-240.thumb.gif.91887a2276b1ccc3391844f31a3d6c66.gif

So a clear move towards the GFS and really all three models main difference is in the ridge at D7; ECM as it does, amplifies the most, GFS the least and GEM middle ground. Of course, it makes a big difference to the medium-term and the ECM changing on this run goes from mild to colder.

In the short-term rain and wind from the storm, snow to usual suspects next week. Most notable will be 4-days of consistent colder windchill from Monday:

anim_efz2.gif

Bitter seasonal feel with maybe some snizzle or wintry mix at times anywhere, west favoured, but too early for confidence in small features to show up. Inland the worse of the winds in the South/SW/SE quadrants, highest-risk for about 10h on Sunday:

36-602UK.thumb.gif.1fd77826bde641cbad92c37786d419ab.gif

Main rain Sunday, but the west looking very wet over the next 6-days:

144-777UK.thumb.gif.d9493de207bd635ad5e8ce21654594fe.gif

Batten down the hatches...

Edited by IDO
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Ecm builds big high  over Scandinavia which is interesting but as mentioned above, nothing really cold has ever verified this winter, but hey, spring is fast approaching so you never know! 

Edited by SLEETY
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After the really stormy spell EC trying to build pressure in the gap......

ECD1B78C-5569-431F-960D-E2DF02C76AC7.thumb.png.7d5db041e92de20f2db78484b9466a9f.png

4CAD349D-6C30-4B7B-8EDC-1FCAB8DCF8DC.thumb.png.a3dc4b4c046e8418a8860c77bc505ce8.png
 

Small chance of a block developing but going by the winter so far chances are slim. 

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5 minutes ago, chris55 said:

After the really stormy spell EC trying to build pressure in the gap......

ECD1B78C-5569-431F-960D-E2DF02C76AC7.thumb.png.7d5db041e92de20f2db78484b9466a9f.png

4CAD349D-6C30-4B7B-8EDC-1FCAB8DCF8DC.thumb.png.a3dc4b4c046e8418a8860c77bc505ce8.png
 

Small chance of a block developing but going by the winter so far chances are slim. 

Yes Chris, the high res run showed this earlier in the week and for it to be dropped like the speed of a stone from the heavens next run.  Unfortunately for us lovers of the promise of cold , the ECM Ens having northing to do with any blocking as the picture below continues to pump mild air into Euroland with some amazing upper 850mb temps in the mix , especially over Alpine countries by day 10. Maybe an extreme of the model outputs though.

C

gh500_20200208_00_240.jpg

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1 hour ago, IDO said:

The GFS op keeps to the stormy westerly outlook with brief NW'ly flows at times. Counted eight storms during the 16 days! As we go through the run the mini-ridges become more noticeable.

D8-16> anim_ccu4.gif

Maybe something different as we move towards March? The GEFS have moved towards the consistent op westerly pattern though still some variation. The GEM has moved away from the ECM Atlantic trough so by D10:

gemnh-0-240.thumb.png.4dc02ebb968efd8fc021442041b90abb.png

Not dissimilar to the GFS op modus operandi. I think that the main question is how far south the jet will go, maybe a N/S split possible? ECM really struggling of late and not really paying any attention to post-D6, but it has moved away from the SW flow at D10 yesterday to a NW/Westerly zonal flow this morning!

ECE1-240.thumb.gif.91887a2276b1ccc3391844f31a3d6c66.gif

So a clear move towards the GFS and really all three models main difference is in the ridge at D7; ECM as it does, amplifie

 

 

Batten down the hatches...

Mate I really think the assessment is miles off. How can the ECM move to the GFS when over 24 hours 00z to 00z they have become more amplified. Its actually the GFS that moved to the ECM plain as day.

00z GFS 168 Yesterday V 144 today- goes from a flat westerly southerly jet to a SW flow with a ridge

374E89E7-54F2-4B47-92E8-3F4772554DEF.thumb.png.d1f96b425277b7320184829162a586c0.pngD3E2C6B0-9AC7-420A-8DF2-33403F87B71D.thumb.png.0996a575866fbc766eab26ec9794bbfc.png

ECM 168 > 144

BCEBEAC2-A4F5-429C-AB26-896418FF3252.thumb.png.76f5cded763b398b78ca0ec898497b2e.png1BF8979E-9F7A-4584-A54D-39387940888F.thumb.png.e0bd341b57ea54a34c61f0551277c676.png

Both More amplified all be it temporarily.

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Mate I really think the assessment is miles off. How can the ECM move to the GFS when over 24 hours 00z to 00z they have become more amplified. Its actually the GFS that moved to the ECM plain as day.

00z GFS 168 Yesterday V 144 today- goes from a flat westerly southerly jet to a SW flow with a ridge

374E89E7-54F2-4B47-92E8-3F4772554DEF.thumb.png.d1f96b425277b7320184829162a586c0.pngD3E2C6B0-9AC7-420A-8DF2-33403F87B71D.thumb.png.0996a575866fbc766eab26ec9794bbfc.png

ECM 168 > 144

BCEBEAC2-A4F5-429C-AB26-896418FF3252.thumb.png.76f5cded763b398b78ca0ec898497b2e.png1BF8979E-9F7A-4584-A54D-39387940888F.thumb.png.e0bd341b57ea54a34c61f0551277c676.png

Both More amplified all be it temporarily.

 

 

 

It is the overall long term pattern that the trend this morning alters, not transient features associated with how each model deals with heights. The ECM, both around D10 and the extended were indicating euro heights the main driver for the UK, now it is moving towards the GFS route of a westerly flow post-D9. Yes, the ECM pushes a wedge of heights towards Scandi that gets absorbed in the Russian high, but overall it is back to a westerly flow at D10 rather than SW to NE ridge yesterday and GFS has been showing that zonal flow for days!

Of course, usual caveats, could all change by the 12z, but I suspect the ECM will tone down those D8-D9 heights yet again. 

Edited by IDO
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Not much support for the ECM op at day 6 apart from the control run , although its ensembles still have a lot of variation in terms of that small low which runs east se into the UK around day 5 .

Quite a surprise though to see it pull out this op run , normally when you’ve had an amplified solution which then gets flattened as in what the ECM did a few days back a re-amplification  never happens .

 

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8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Mate I really think the assessment is miles off. How can the ECM move to the GFS when over 24 hours 00z to 00z they have become more amplified. Its actually the GFS that moved to the ECM plain as day.

00z GFS 168 Yesterday V 144 today- goes from a flat westerly southerly jet to a SW flow with a ridge

374E89E7-54F2-4B47-92E8-3F4772554DEF.thumb.png.d1f96b425277b7320184829162a586c0.pngD3E2C6B0-9AC7-420A-8DF2-33403F87B71D.thumb.png.0996a575866fbc766eab26ec9794bbfc.png

ECM 168 > 144

BCEBEAC2-A4F5-429C-AB26-896418FF3252.thumb.png.76f5cded763b398b78ca0ec898497b2e.png1BF8979E-9F7A-4584-A54D-39387940888F.thumb.png.e0bd341b57ea54a34c61f0551277c676.png

Both More amplified all be it temporarily.

 

 

 

Ecm looks more amplified today!!!

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7 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ecm looks more amplified today!!!

At D10 you can check the spread for ECM and GFS:

EEM1-240.thumb.gif.bc34ba63998e364c6a43de9668bc3387.gifgens-22-1-240.thumb.png.0040b475d57808421c4a34268bcac8c8.png

We can see GFS has good support for the op within members but we can see massive divergence on the ECM. Translating that; believe the ECM at your peril as the suite is clearly struggling with modelling of that region. Good support obviously doesn't mean the GFS is right but at least it offers some consistency ATM. The ECM starts to diverge early and by D10 the spread makes it incoherent as a run for the extended.

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^^^ No-one is really looking at day 10. As ever the timelines you review are subject to massive change & when changes occur day 6-7 it makes day 10 pointless.

The models are all moving to the ECM ( a little surprising really ) - ICON 06z the same

If you compare the icon 06z jet for 120 with the 12z jet at 138 yesterday ( same timestamp ) you can now see the 06z curvature of the jet up towards Greenland now 

Its unlikely to amount to much but may increase wintry potential for Eastern Scotland down to Newcastle at day 6.

38DB6EA8-CB96-468B-82C4-6C8BE7067BB8.thumb.png.8f1b93a3997c85059e25e7ed9fff9cb4.pngD99FC77A-4F78-46CE-839F-52C0CAA6E42E.thumb.png.70ec3216a0172e5a2d540440689b3948.png

 

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