Model output discussion 02/02/20

[shaky]

Surely somethings gota give here!!gfs with deep lows going east with cold air and ecm with the amplification around 168 hours but leads to nothing!!maybe we goin for a middle ground in the end!!bit of amplification to send enough of a wedge around iceland then the lows from the gfs undercut and slide more than currently shown

[BlueHedgehog074]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Likely explains the forecasts locally.

And makes a mockery of low res GFS precip suggestions.

Looks good for the areas mentioned so good luck to the guys in NW scotland.

I would imagine like most coldies i just want winter 2019/20 to go away now,not that we have had a winter mind.

I will be happy to admit that if no sleet or snow showers fall to lower levels next week away from North-West Scotland, that I would have got it wrong. 

I suppose it does look marginal on the models anyway, and might just find it will be a mixture of rain, hail and graupel to low levels most of the time from the showers. 

[nick sussex]

The ECM op is right at the top of the pressure ensembles suggesting it has the jet too far north .

Problem though is a halfway solution between it and the GFS would just mean mild rain and wind .

The GFS is reluctant to hold the reformed PV for very long and it starts disrupting later .

We really need the GFS trend to verify because the one blob PV only leads to one thing ! 

[IDO]

Just now, shaky said:

Surely somethings gota give here!!gfs with deep lows going east with cold air and ecm with the amplification around 168 hours but leads to nothing!!maybe we goin for a middle ground in the end!!bit of amplification to send enough of a wedge around iceland then the lows from the gfs undercut and slide more than currently shown

Yes, with the continued underlying westerly atmospheric pattern then we are more prone to the ebb and flow of systems and their interactions, rather then when there is forcing from the tropics that guide us to what to expect. So it is very fluid ATM with small changes having knock on effects. FI is JFF but currently it should be treated with even more caution.

ECM -v- GFS, a brave person to call that, though at least the GFS solution post-D8 has greater odds of leading to cold again sooner rather than later. Though any HLB'ing may have to wait till the undercurrent of the westerly NH flow is broken, that will of course allow hits on the strat and we will then see the strat break up and that bottled cold seep south. Time is ticking though.

GFS at T300 FWIW: 

[North-Easterly Blast]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Basically there has been a +NAO from early Dec right through to now and no sign of it changing anytime soon.

To add insult to injury it now looks like uppers of -7 and negative dews are unlikely to deliver away from the higher hills mon/tue with meto/bbc now progging rain and sleet at 300m locally.

 

A +NAO and zonality delivered polar maritime air and widespread snowfall in January 1984, without significant northern blocking, and on a few other occasions to a lesser extent.  It is getting the orientation of a zonal flow favourable for a polar maritime flow, then it can be good for favoured parts of the country.

[Methuselah]

And what's this, I ask myself...a random chance of a snowflake?

    

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Not seeing the amplification to be honest - UKMO & GFS have been very flat with continued westerlies - I think thats the form horse...

Yep, Just don't see anything positive at the moment, hence my negative post total anomaly lately.

[mb018538]

Hmm.



These ECM clusters are starting to look flatter again - the more amplified-high runs of the last couple of days are shrinking. The GFS keeps churning out unsettled runs, and the mean SLP is a bit lower than recent days. Trend to more unsettled conditions dominating, or just a blip?

Edited February 7, 2020 by mb018538

[Tim Bland]

Happy valentines from the GFS ...my one true love  

[northwestsnow]

36 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

A +NAO and zonality delivered polar maritime air and widespread snowfall in January 1984, without significant northern blocking, and on a few other occasions to a lesser extent.  It is getting the orientation of a zonal flow favourable for a polar maritime flow, then it can be good for favoured parts of the country.

Yes jan 1984 was good, round these parts .

Doesn't look like it will be this time round unforrunately.

[IDO]

42 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Hmm.



These ECM clusters are starting to look flatter again - the more amplified-high runs of the last couple of days are shrinking. The GFS keeps churning out unsettled runs, and the mean SLP is a bit lower than recent days. Trend to more unsettled conditions dominating, or just a blip?

Looking at the GEFS; 12 - 10 in favour of the ECM route, but that is the most support the GFS op has had, though control in the other cluster. Looks like one of those instances where either model will flip to the other's solution in that eureka moment. The GEFS supporting the ECM have the mid-Canadian high like the ECM so I suspect the volatility remains in the wave breaking over the east Pacific (Hawaii).

TBH post-D7 there isn't much cold whichever way the models go according to the GEFS, the op being an outlier for that northerly, here:

Next week cool, though feeling cold, especially first half of the week. Then average or milder depending what pattern we follow.

[Methuselah]

Och well, the GEFS 06Z ensembles are clearly starting to show the effects of random numbers; the imminent weakening of the tPV, plus the unpredictability of the warming uppers, down south, means that the signal-to-noise ratio becomes overwhelmed even more quickly than usual...?

    

     

I think Stochastic Overload has a nice ring to it...Pretentious? Moi?

[jules216]

I know its not going to verify but wouldnt it be typical to see this kind of blocking in March

[Snowyowl9]

Monday cold air snow for hills comes in.

Have to take what we can this year and thats from the west.

 

[MP-R]

29 minutes ago, jules216 said:

I know its not going to verify but wouldnt it be typical to see this kind of blocking in March

I think the Earth would have to start rotating in the opposite direction for that to happen this year!

[Timmytour]

38 minutes ago, jules216 said:

I know its not going to verify but wouldnt it be typical to see this kind of blocking in March

We can but dream!

This February doesn't  strike me as being too dissimilar too February 1962....

Of course the March that followed that was an absolute corker!

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, jules216 said:

I know its not going to verify but wouldnt it be typical to see this kind of blocking in March

Stonker!

[shaky]

Cfs showing same as gfs!!lows diving south east through europe!!!so maybe gfs is not that much of an outlier!!surely something has to give this evening!!

[summer blizzard]

4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Cfs showing same as gfs!!lows diving south east through europe!!!so maybe gfs is not that much of an outlier!!surely something has to give this evening!!

Pretty sure CFS has data fed into it by the GFS. Plus the CFS is generally pretty poor.

Edited February 7, 2020 by summer blizzard

[nick sussex]

The GFS and GEFS are still forecasting the MJO to get into at least phase 6 and then edge towards 7.

Waiting for the other models to update . In terms of the MJO just been doing some further reading into that .

Some quite interesting research there found the biggest impact on areas outside of the tropics comes after phases 2,3,6 and 7.

In terms of the shorter term NCEP still pointing out lots of uncertainty over the USA and Canada . In particular shortwave activity in the eastern USA.

This will impact the pattern upstream in the UK . It’s unlikely though to effect the reformation of the PV , it’s more a case of the route taken to that rather than a change of destination .

One things for sure if it does reform we want that to be as temporary as possible ! 

Edited February 7, 2020 by nick sussex

[summer blizzard]

Still large differences in even the initial handling of tropical convection which are probably to blame for the massive divergence down the line.

By day 8 this is the operational divergence we have..

[Sky Full]

55 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I think the Earth would have to start rotating in the opposite direction for that to happen this year!

Great idea!  Where's Superman when you really need him?  In the meantime, I'm wondering if there will be any wind speed records broken on Sunday?  As usual, the models vary in their predictions but the peak of the storm seems to be timed for Sunday midday.....    Maximum wind gusts:

ECM     

GFS      

ICON    

60-70 mph gusts quite widely even inland and I wouldn't want to be on a ferry in the channel over the weekend.

 

 

Edited February 7, 2020 by Sky Full

[winterof79]

6 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Pretty sure CFS has data fed into it by the GFS. Plus the CFS is generally pretty poor.

I'm not seeing any lows diving s/e through Europe! 

Or am I missing something

 

 

 

Edited February 7, 2020 by winterof79

[shaky]

31 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Pretty sure CFS has data fed into it by the GFS. Plus the CFS is generally pretty poor.

Yeh im aware of that but just saying gfs might be along the right path here!!!i personally think its gona back down but lets see how the 12zs go!!

[Chesil View]

2 hours ago, jules216 said:

I know its not going to verify but wouldnt it be typical to see this kind of blocking in March

To be honest Jules216 that sort of set up wouldn’t surprise me at all come March or even April, ridiculously mild winters have a habit of having a sting in the tail once meteorological winter has finished.