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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    Seeing talk of heatwaves yet there is no heatwaves showing in the models. 

    Don't see any massive cold plunges either but theres been slight hints or there we may see something upstream which could favour a northerly plunge by week 3 of Feb but I would say those odds are slim at this stage. 

    Either way a deep low is on the way for Sunday and into Monday and a chance of some decent convective weather also, would love to be on the West Coast of Ireland seeing those beefy showers heading in from the Atlantic and feel the force of that wind. 

    Edited by Blessed Weather
    Personal comments removed.
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    Posted
  • Location: Woodley, Reading, Berkshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW SNOW SNOW
  • Location: Woodley, Reading, Berkshire

    All though I take it with a pinch of salt being a week away, it does look a pretty snowy chart.

    9B50C903-DC50-410F-A27C-99C7572B948E.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Surprised at the lack of comment on ECM and UKMO adding a nasty secondary low on the S flank of the major low this Sunday. 
     

    That really ups the ante for the UK, especially Scotland. It’s the kind of finer detail that can take until a few days range to pin down.

    With which in mind - I’m not resting easy on next week yet, severe wind-wise. Though it does look that the mean major low position has shifted markedly west - hence its looking increasingly mild again too. 

    GFS’ immense Euro high longer-term is likely down to it imitating a strong MJO phases 5-6, which promotes that sort of thing prior to a shift to HLB patterns of the MJO holds high amplitude right through phase 7, ideally 8 too.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    So 18z Icon is showing 100-150kph winds (55-95mph) winds across Ireland, North Wales and North West England for Sunday at 10:00hrs

    image.thumb.png.8d31d3dcbacd68d146362c361d871ad2.png

    16:00hrs - 150kph across southern Scotland with 100+kph widely across the rest of the UK.  Dangerous storm this one.

    image.thumb.png.9963484395f6fe6eaacfe27893ef3714.png

    Edited by Ice Day
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    Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

    There is a wee wind starter to keep an eye on before the main course arrives through Sunday 

    Saturday afternoon/evening/night could see gusts reaching 65mph +

    ED4225A2-AFFB-46CF-B5CD-D0772B1F8740.thumb.png.69c6389136821f5bb66cbdd2bf291afa.pngA8C38A0F-D44E-4890-91FE-67AC82456E29.thumb.png.16ea69ed1b56c9f8880a35e2c2c1caab.png49E46D99-151B-464D-97C6-4C77FB4495AD.thumb.png.659c09c3a500f157dbd9ed2ec41e8539.png
     

    England/Wales get the main wind action on this run! 

    32973D56-4542-43D3-A478-3D131095A96F.thumb.png.f724f777749a248f6c93cae81c0a94d9.pngD7C06FE9-5B37-4051-8519-813839C0F179.thumb.png.9de3c2fc94710ce15ac7d09983d1ea7d.pngD7852A79-0BA2-4C8A-83C4-EC7A574A7B0A.thumb.png.3cabae3f99c3ab7d79b2330feafc3551.pngF87EB4AB-0C48-4FB6-8704-A853E356FAD4.thumb.png.fed2fdc7eee396e937763b5af2c58671.png

    Edited by Mr Frost
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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Fantastic 18z if snow showers is your thing!!no storm next week on the 18z up to 156 hours so far!!sunday looking very stormy though!

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Similar overall from the GFS18 hrs run although it’s more amplified upstream with the Newfoundland low around day 6 into 7 .

    Still a chance we could see a bit more amplification around that timeframe which would downstream force the low to the nw to track more se . 

    Can we manage a more slider low . The day 6 into 7 gives a small chance to develop a better ridge ahead of it , it’s at that point where some energy wants to dig more s sw into the Atlantic.

    The end point is still likely to be similar given the strong signal to reform the PV but its a case of trying to squeeze as much out of this for coldies before then .

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    5 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

    Was expecting this forum to be bouncing this evening with what is being forecast on the models at present for next week ?

    Large parts of the country have potential so see snow fall of varying quantities along with fierce winds, rain and kitchen sinks

    09344196-674D-4B68-AE02-07F98D20C603.png

    34448194-83E8-4073-8AC4-F7C78EF16661.png

    E59037FA-6D2E-42D5-B5AA-5A64E87A88AD.png

    Was wondering the same thing mate!!expected more posts on the 18z!!there were posts galore just 24 hours ago when there was a dangerous storm forecast for next week but now that its gone everythings gone quiet!!personally i prefer what the charts are showing on the 18z rather than that horrendous storm!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    6 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Was wondering the same thing mate!!expected more posts on the 18z!!there were posts galore just 24 hours ago when there was a dangerous storm forecast for next week but now that its gone everythings gone quiet!!personally i prefer what the charts are showing on the 18z rather than that horrendous storm!!

    That's because a large number are from the south Eastern quarter and those charts illustrate how likely we are. Not to see a sausage let alone a Murr Sausage! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Central Beds
  • Location: Central Beds
    12 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

    Was expecting this forum to be bouncing this evening with what is being forecast on the models at present for next week ?

    Large parts of the country have potential so see snow fall of varying quantities along with fierce winds, rain and kitchen sinks

    09344196-674D-4B68-AE02-07F98D20C603.png

    34448194-83E8-4073-8AC4-F7C78EF16661.png

    E59037FA-6D2E-42D5-B5AA-5A64E87A88AD.png

    Probably because they’re a downgrade from the 12z and they’re still too far out to be believable, particularly given the number of false starts we’ve seen this winter.  

    I suspect we’re all a little bit secretly excited to see them mind ??

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Unfortunately on iPad so can’t do one of my paint jobs !

    However if look at the NH view of the ECM at day 7 .

    The important bit is the ridge between the low near Newfoundland and the one to the nw of the UK .

    If we can get that more amplified then the low to the nw will be forced to track more se and more amplification will also slow the upstream pattern .

    If you then look at the day 8 on the ECM you can then correct the main features , the deep looking trough to the west will be a bit sharper and further west , the low near the UK would have tracked further south . 

    I’m only highlighting this because it’s really a solution that’s within the possibilities of the current pattern and doesn’t need a big change .

    Buying a bit more time let’s say , because the PV is going to reform unless the models have got this totally wrong .

    Anyway let’s see if there’s any mileage in that in the morning . The ECM has hardly had its reputation enhanced over the winter with its better trends not lasting very long!

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    Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

    Looking a little warm out in fantasy island. Will it disappear or we will count this down to 0? I do recall last year’s Feb warmth being spotted in a similar timeframe. Who knows.E5472118-3F3F-471A-9A06-008CDFE33B83.thumb.jpeg.386f3c4a43e7291b1210660f2d67a55c.jpeg

    BE42F323-13F2-47E1-8782-4010C985606E.thumb.jpeg.6c23e415405ab6623f93d5f162be48b6.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    20 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Unfortunately on iPad so can’t do one of my paint jobs !

    However if look at the NH view of the ECM at day 7 .

    The important bit is the ridge between the low near Newfoundland and the one to the nw of the UK .

    If we can get that more amplified then the low to the nw will be forced to track more se and more amplification will also slow the upstream pattern .

    If you then look at the day 8 on the ECM you can then correct the main features , the deep looking trough to the west will be a bit sharper and further west , the low near the UK would have tracked further south . 

    I’m only highlighting this because it’s really a solution that’s within the possibilities of the current pattern and doesn’t need a big change .

    Buying a bit more time let’s say , because the PV is going to reform unless the models have got this totally wrong .

    Anyway let’s see if there’s any mileage in that in the morning . The ECM has hardly had its reputation enhanced over the winter with its better trends not lasting very long!

    It's a possibility Nick as some of the gefs ens are showing this at 192

    gensnh-8-1-192.thumb.png.034f64c2b35fcc01539e64f67a086e95.png

    this what we need to see in subsequent runs to slow the pattern down a bit

    the MJO is certainly going for an amplified pattern off the scale into phase 7 of which is good viewing but until the ecm comes on board then i am not budging off the fence in this moment in time

    1223841156_diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member(1).thumb.gif.835cd887870e486858a92a8219fe5b62.gifECMF_phase_51m_small.thumb.gif.1392a2f5b1d14176ea645c8a42e3b7c6.gif

    that all speculation at the moment so i am looking forward to early next week,i have not viewed my lamp post at all since i have moved here to my new house back in June :nonono:

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    17 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

    Looking a little warm out in fantasy island. Will it disappear or we will count this down to 0? I do recall last year’s Feb warmth being spotted in a similar timeframe. Who knows.

     

    I think you are correct there as I also recall it being spotted around this time!

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    18 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    It's a possibility Nick as some of the gefs ens are showing this at 192

    gensnh-8-1-192.thumb.png.034f64c2b35fcc01539e64f67a086e95.png

    this what we need to see in subsequent runs to slow the pattern down a bit

    the MJO is certainly going for an amplified pattern off the scale into phase 7 of which is good viewing but until the ecm comes on board then i am not budging off the fence in this moment in time

    1223841156_diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member(1).thumb.gif.835cd887870e486858a92a8219fe5b62.gifECMF_phase_51m_small.thumb.gif.1392a2f5b1d14176ea645c8a42e3b7c6.gif

    that all speculation at the moment so i am looking forward to early next week,i have not viewed my lamp post at all since i have moved here to my new house back in June :nonono:

     

    Happy lamppost viewing ! 

    The GEFS are throwing up a few more better solutions but I’ve seen this before on the 18hrs runs which don’t survive till the morning . We are still talking though of just extending the cold by a day or so .

    I can’t see the models being wrong with the reforming PV . At the moment we’re seeing a steep increase in the AO followed by a quick decline . So whether the models are handling that well time will tell.

    In terms of the MJO what’s apparently muddying the waters are Rossby waves which are causing the modelling problems .

    The expert at NCEP suggested the different wave breaking Rossby forecasts in the eastern Pacific  between the outputs are most likely to be the issue .

    At the moment they seem to think the ECM forecast is more likely.

    The last event however saw the GFS lead the way with the MJO signal at least in terms of moving more quickly through the unfavorable phases , it’s issue was when it hit phase 7.

     

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Talk about Topsy-turvy weather,just look at that,at least the cold is prolonged a day or two next week

                            18z tonight                              v's                           18z last night

    graphe3_1000_263_27___.thumb.png.71b6913fec69e9435604a74b9680dd68.png:oldrofl:         graphe3_1000_265_28___.thumb.png.c7c890ac2469619615ebf752d9916ae7.png

    get your camera's out next week for the snow before heading down to the beach?

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Happy lamppost viewing ! 

    The GEFS are throwing up a few more better solutions but I’ve seen this before on the 18hrs runs which don’t survive till the morning . We are still talking though of just extending the cold by a day or so .

    I can’t see the models being wrong with the reforming PV . At the moment we’re seeing a steep increase in the AO followed by a quick decline . So whether the models are handling that well time will tell.

    In terms of the MJO what’s apparently muddying the waters are Rossby waves which are causing the modelling problems .

    The expert at NCEP suggested the different wave breaking Rossby forecasts in the eastern Pacific  between the outputs are most likely to be the issue .

    At the moment they seem to think the ECM forecast is more likely.

    The last event however saw the GFS lead the way with the MJO signal at least in terms of moving more quickly through the unfavorable phases , it’s issue was when it hit phase 7.

     

    There is a lag time of 10-12 days though Nick and the models will not see this yet but like you say,it hit the buffers last time,lets hope the polar express doesn't hit the brakes this time

    lets just see what happens in terms of getting or squeezing a more amplified trough out west,it's still in the realms of fl so best to wait a few days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, wild or foggy/frosty autumns and cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    11 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

    Seeing talk of heatwaves yet there is no heatwaves showing in the models. 

    Don't see any massive cold plunges either but theres been slight hints or there we may see something upstream which could favour a northerly plunge by week 3 of Feb but I would say those odds are slim at this stage. 

    Either way a deep low is on the way for Sunday and into Monday and a chance of some decent convective weather also, would love to be on the West Coast of Ireland seeing those beefy showers heading in from the Atlantic and feel the force of that wind. 

     

    Equally I'm not sure where you're seeing a northerly. I think my heatwave (and I use the word slightly tongue in cheek anyway) is more likely than your northerly

    Edited by Blessed Weather
    Personal comments removed.
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 hour ago, LRD said:

     

    Equally I'm not sure where you're seeing a northerly. I think my heatwave (and I use the word slightly tongue in cheek anyway) is more likely than your northerly

    gens_panel_adh3.png Panel for that tplus suggest little in terms of cold wrt to temp 2m. Doesn’t suggest 20 degrees either I would suggest but mild not cold going by this. 

    Edited by Blessed Weather
    Comment in quote box edited.
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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    Now then what's this from ECM on Valentines a brief North to NEly?

    Screenshot_20200206-064544_Samsung Internet.jpg

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