Model output discussion 02/02/20

[MATTWOLVES 3]

59 minutes ago, jules216 said:

just for fun,but models have been shifting ever so slightly westwards with that next week plunge which puts my location in eastern Slovakia in shout with pehaps the coldest snap of winter so far

Perhaps a bit of action for you jules going by the ECM mean.. Nice little cold plunge pushing south into your neck of the woods. Do post some pics to us snow starved Britain's ECM mean says perhaps cool zonality, perhaps colder enough for snow at height further North at times... Other than that, I'm seriously gerrin bored.. For the love of God... Somebody please hit the Factory reset button on the NH profile. 

Edited February 2, 2020 by Mattwolves

[feb1991blizzard]

44 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

We have to be honest. Although I highly respect Stewart (Glacierpoint) his ideas of February don't realise. The first part of his forecast was excellent. 

To be fair he didn't say February was a nailed on cold month, he said it was the best chance of a cold month, and using analogues, i agreed with him at the time.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

On the back of things, the 12z ens ain't to bad... Even the mean is on the chilly side... I'm gerrin excited now..

[mulzy]

The poor winter output continues.  Too much polishing a turd happening at the moment.  

Ext EPS suggests a continuation of the positive AO/NAO combo.  Others may find wet, blustery conditions at 8C fascinating but it just doesn’t cut it for me!

Edited February 2, 2020 by mulzy

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The poor winter output continues.  Too much polishing a turd happening at the moment.  

Ext EPS suggests a continuation of the positive AO/NAO combo.  Others may find wet, blustery conditions at 8C fascinating but it just doesn’t cut it for me!

Aye...Where's that Acme Turd Polisher, ATP, when you need it!

[leedsnowfan]

BBC going with Stormy from next weekend....dont often do that....anyone got some firm(ish) views on how bad will be from Models....?

[Wilxy]

Well that would be very nasty if these charts come anything close to this!

[Don]

1 hour ago, mulzy said:

The poor winter output continues.  Too much polishing a turd happening at the moment.  

Ext EPS suggests a continuation of the positive AO/NAO combo.  Others may find wet, blustery conditions at 8C fascinating but it just doesn’t cut it for me!

People's standards are pretty low at the moment.  This isn't 2010! 

[Griff]

Speaking of low standards, here's some unlikely nonsense in FI

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Snow accumulation from 18z gfs all FI but bring it on. Look OK that chart for yorkshire all will change but only 216hours away lol

[Jordan S]

I'm just going to focus on next weekend in this update and in particular Sunday and early the following week. Various models and their ensembles have been consistent with bringing a deep low across the UK or just to the north with a jet stream modelled to become Very strong around 200mph by this time..  

GFS operational..

 GEFS mean..   

There is a marked upper air temperature contrast across the Atlantic modelled for the same time ofcourse.. 

This is a favourable environment for rapidly deepening low pressure systems such as this one shown by the Gfs and Ecm. 

  Gfs..

Ecm.. 

The position and depth are a little different ofcourse and that's to be expected given this is a week away but decent agreement between them and most of their ensembles for consecutive updates now on potentially a stormy spell of weather during the latter part of next weekend and perhaps another stormy spell into the early half of the following week, this low on the image below is picked up on many ensemble members aswell but position and intensity subject to change at this timeframe. 

Anyway Here's the overall picture of the following week.. 

Edited February 2, 2020 by jordan smith

[Mapantz]

I've been far too busy to look at any output properly, for a while. After having a casual flick through, there's a light resemblance to December 2013 showing up - particularly the second half of it.

[radiohead]

It's silly FI stuff that will no doubt change or disappear on the next run but look at those extreme winds in SW England and the major snowstorm over Ireland. This would be a major event if it ever happened.

Edited February 2, 2020 by radiohead

[PiscesStar]

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

It's still FI stuff that will no doubt change or disappear on the next run but look at those extreme winds in SW England and the major snowstorm over Ireland. This would be a major event if it ever happened.

And look at all that rain in the south and east.. 

No thanks 

[MP-R]

17 minutes ago, TomW said:

Well that would be very nasty if these charts come anything close to this!

Get that into the Channel and it could be a half decent, if short lived, snow event. Anything like that, as above posts have alluded too, would be unseasonably windy across the south. Wouldn't be surprised if it halved in intensity between now and then (would certainly hope so anyway!).

[Kentspur]

11 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

And look at all that rain in the south and east.. 

No thanks 

For once I'm liking this Northern PM business as I'll be in Yorkshire then❄

[Mapantz]

Further to my post above..

They'll be small lows / waves popping up from the parent low if the mid-range charts come to fruition. Certainly an interesting period of weather for those of us who are all-rounders.

[Cuban Zebra]

The signals seem to be pointing to a pattern change at last!! The PV is on the move, hopefully it’ll be favourable for us!!

[The4Seasons]

49 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

And look at all that rain in the south and east.. 

No thanks 

And check out those hurricane force winds in south west England. I don't fancy that turning up on my door step 

[SMU]

Weather models have updated their scale to +10

   

Saturdays ECM HRES AO was +8.1

Todays number

NAO +6

AO.   +7

These values are in a total league of their own 

1990 the mecca of +AO & a cold strat only reached +5.9. 

2020 is the new bench mark of extremes. Lets hope 2021 is at the other end of the extreme scale!

Edited February 3, 2020 by Steve Murr

[Polar Maritime]

Winter looks to arrive this weekend and into Wk2 with the potential for some very stormy weather under a very unstable/cold PM flow.

[Iceaxecrampon]

GFS 00Z 11FEB

BOOM!

Last chance then i'm giving up 

[northwestsnow]

00z runs promoting a snowy polar maritime flow for the NW 

Most likely will involve elevation..

 

Edited February 3, 2020 by northwestsnow

[SLEETY]

Well if any of these charts come off ,their will certainly be some extreme conditions for the Highlands of Scotland,even at their altitude ,it’s not common to see such severe,  constant wind-speed combined with blinding snow lasting for days and days.Could be an epic end to the ski-season up there.Anyone living above 200 m won’t miss out either.

Need the winds to swing true North for all lowland U.K. to hit the jackpot too

[James Maidstone]

It is worth remembering that there are exceptionally high spring tides next week, so any big storms coming from the Atlantic could be something to keep an eye on from that perspective.