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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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59 minutes ago, jules216 said:

just for fun,but models have been shifting ever so slightly westwards with that next week plunge which puts my location in eastern Slovakia in shout with pehaps the coldest snap of winter so far ?

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Perhaps a bit of action for you jules going by the ECM mean.. Nice little cold plunge pushing south into your neck of the woods. Do post some pics to us snow starved Britain's ?ECM mean says perhaps cool zonality, perhaps colder enough for snow at height further North at times... Other than that, I'm seriously gerrin bored.. For the love of God... Somebody please hit the Factory reset button on the NH profile. 

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Edited by Mattwolves
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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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44 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

We have to be honest. Although I highly respect Stewart (Glacierpoint) his ideas of February don't realise. The first part of his forecast was excellent. 

To be fair he didn't say February was a nailed on cold month, he said it was the best chance of a cold month, and using analogues, i agreed with him at the time.

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4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The poor winter output continues.  Too much polishing a turd happening at the moment.  

Ext EPS suggests a continuation of the positive AO/NAO combo.  Others may find wet, blustery conditions at 8C fascinating but it just doesn’t cut it for me!

Aye...Where's that Acme Turd Polisher, ATP, when you need it!?

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1 hour ago, mulzy said:

The poor winter output continues.  Too much polishing a turd happening at the moment.  

Ext EPS suggests a continuation of the positive AO/NAO combo.  Others may find wet, blustery conditions at 8C fascinating but it just doesn’t cut it for me!

People's standards are pretty low at the moment.  This isn't 2010! 

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I'm just going to focus on next weekend in this update and in particular Sunday and early the following week. Various models and their ensembles have been consistent with bringing a deep low across the UK or just to the north with a jet stream modelled to become Very strong around 200mph by this time..  

GFS operational.. ?

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 GEFS mean.. ?  

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There is a marked upper air temperature contrast across the Atlantic modelled for the same time ofcourse.. 

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This is a favourable environment for rapidly deepening low pressure systems such as this one shown by the Gfs and Ecm

  Gfs.. ?

1878387453_EUROPE_PRMSL_150(2).thumb.jpg.c48f2c5c472e31d03885bfee1f840925.jpg

Ecm.. 

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The position and depth are a little different ofcourse and that's to be expected given this is a week away but decent agreement between them and most of their ensembles for consecutive updates now on potentially a stormy spell of weather during the latter part of next weekend and perhaps another stormy spell into the early half of the following week, this low on the image below is picked up on many ensemble members aswell but position and intensity subject to change at this timeframe. ?

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Anyway Here's the overall picture of the following week.. 

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Edited by jordan smith
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I've been far too busy to look at any output properly, for a while. After having a casual flick through, there's a light resemblance to December 2013 showing up - particularly the second half of it.

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It's silly FI stuff that will no doubt change or disappear on the next run but look at those extreme winds in SW England and the major snowstorm over Ireland. This would be a major event if it ever happened.

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Edited by radiohead
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1 minute ago, radiohead said:

It's still FI stuff that will no doubt change or disappear on the next run but look at those extreme winds in SW England and the major snowstorm over Ireland. This would be a major event if it ever happened.

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And look at all that rain in the south and east.. 

No thanks 

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17 minutes ago, TomW said:

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Well that would be very nasty if these charts come anything close to this!

Get that into the Channel and it could be a half decent, if short lived, snow event. Anything like that, as above posts have alluded too, would be unseasonably windy across the south. Wouldn't be surprised if it halved in intensity between now and then (would certainly hope so anyway!).

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11 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

And look at all that rain in the south and east.. 

No thanks 

For once I'm liking this Northern PM business as I'll be in Yorkshire then?

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Well if any of these charts come off ,their will certainly be some extreme conditions for the Highlands of Scotland,even at their altitude ,it’s not common to see such severe,  constant wind-speed combined with blinding snow lasting for days and days.Could be an epic end to the ski-season up there.Anyone living above 200 m won’t miss out either.

Need the winds to swing true North for all lowland U.K. to hit the jackpot too

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