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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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1 minute ago, LRD said:
ensemble-probability-forecast-of-rainfal
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

Model probabilistic guidance for temperature and rainfall up to six months ahead. Updated monthly.

Met Office going for dry for the next 3 months

Summer's too far away yet but their 4-6 month look looks normal/dry for April/May/June

We'll see next update but I fully expect it to start showing heights in the N Atlantic/ to our N.

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We'll see next update but I fully expect it to start showing heights in the N Atlantic/ to our N.

That June chart you posted from CFS isn't that far away from a long southerly draw, though. That low anomaly only has to be slightly (in global terms) to the west and bingo! Heatwave! Especially with a high anomaly hinted at just to our east

Edited by LRD
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Just now, LRD said:

That June chart you posted from CFS isn't that far away from a long southerly draw, though. That low anomaly only has to be slightly (in global terms) to the west and bingo! Heatwave!

Wet though because a mean chart like that would mean the upper trough would make inroads into the UKfrom time to time moving over some serios heat giving some big thundery convections

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1 hour ago, shaky said:

Funny thing is theres such strong support for a mild spell after next week that it will come true!!but if it was the other way around and it was mild next week and then the ensembles were showing rock solid support for cold 9 times out of 10 it will go tits up!!such a Tut take!!!

Which begs the question surely there should be some tweaks and modifications made to the way these models handle their data. In other words a milder bias so that they are less likely to pick up on phantom cold signals. This is turn would reduce the number of cold patterns or scenarios being presented when the reality is much more likely to manifest as milder as has so often been the case..... 

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1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Now what’s the betting this will verify. +13 uppers into the south . This winter has been a joke . 

C380A453-D357-4444-AE79-76818EB66D0B.png

170BC310-9D88-4950-8418-5F37FAD0775C.png

Lala land thankfully but if it comes off we into early summer or late spring. Winters never started hear we either stayed in Autumn or skipped straight to spring. At least we should have some interesting weather this weekend though.

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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

No deep low on ecm!where there was a 990mb deep low just of the eastern states yesterday on the 144 hour chart has now been replaced with a high at 1030mb!!

Not necessarily a deep low but there is definitely a low just off of Newfoundland on the ECM 144? I think it might have Scotland's name on it!

image.thumb.png.fcdb1ad01c5784b6dbae319417f54018.png

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2 minutes ago, LRD said:

Not necessarily a deep low but there is definitely a low just off of Newfoundland on the ECM 144? I think it might have Scotland's name on it!

image.thumb.png.fcdb1ad01c5784b6dbae319417f54018.png

Compared the 144 hour chart to todays 120 hours chart and its quiet a big difference across the state!!

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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Compared the 144 hour chart to todays 120 hours chart and its quiet a big difference across the state!!

Ah, yes, understood

ECM 168. I reckon that low will turn NE from there. Just look at the sheer scale of the tropical high pressure belt between the Med, Spain and the US. Extreme in its own tedious way

image.thumb.png.16149a7d01021db3c783ac47a23d06ae.png

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5 minutes ago, LRD said:

Ah, yes, understood

ECM 168. I reckon that low will turn NE from there. Just look at the sheer scale of the tropical high pressure belt between the Med, Spain and the US. Extreme in its own tedious way

image.thumb.png.16149a7d01021db3c783ac47a23d06ae.png

Or maybe not...

image.thumb.png.12edee149da32ae8915ed8877a7c898f.png

A wet and windy old period coming up. Interesting weather in its own right and in the absence of cold

Edited by LRD
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8 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Sunday really does look wild on the latest ECM:

Scotland:

008C1DD8-E630-473E-AEE4-713B6FC9989B.thumb.png.63ee41602a9559890f9ade6c10589009.png

England, Ireland, NI and Wales:

1A3F811E-9FFE-4C96-BDAB-F281AE79E76B.thumb.png.18496d5f7785fba543408f0c1f173be5.png
 

Heavy rain/sleet/snow showers piling in for Monday and Tuesday! 

3203A665-78B1-4ACD-82E7-B7CA7B5F0942.thumb.png.f04eb7f302f0e56f8cc5b358e6d34463.pngB028B5F6-5071-478D-80CE-C64DD5F4E73A.thumb.png.1c2e3a04b8d8052a1560d117a01f00c7.png
 

Bring on some exciting weather at last! ?

I'm struggling with  that matrix  is that 70mph +  across the midlands?

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Looks like the models are coming to grips with the upstream flow and agree on the (delayed) storm; at T168 both models now similar in track and timings though issues re phasing:

ECE1-168.thumb.gif.7ccd9cdc1e00c66bfec08b49140bd0f3.gifgfseu-0-168.thumb.png.242ab92dec4c5882d5e9a8e981028cf6.png:

So by D8 when it hits the UK:

ECE1-192.thumb.gif.f290ad50bffbe863b1e5625da4abb91c.gifgfseu-0-192.thumb.png.2eda5324656a643411945b84e3d511ad.png

Doubt either are correct at this range; to be continued...

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2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

I'm struggling with  that matrix  is that 70mph +  across the midlands?

Indeed! 70/75mph gusts - wild stuff through that area if these charts become reality.

Edited by Mr Frost
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Further evidence from the 12z runs for a possible 'heatwave' mid/late Feb. ECM shows a strong pressure build from the SW. You can see a tropical draw easily forming out of that another 48 hours down the line

image.thumb.png.6ad5da210bdab72680bcdc71b40a06f2.png

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2 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

Now what’s the betting this will verify. +13 uppers into the south . This winter has been a joke . 

C380A453-D357-4444-AE79-76818EB66D0B.png

170BC310-9D88-4950-8418-5F37FAD0775C.png

Wouldn’t be surprised if it does verify, but I seriously hope it doesn’t!  Would we exceed the temps recorded last February with that set up?

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3 minutes ago, LRD said:

Further evidence from the 12z runs for a possible 'heatwave' mid/late Feb. ECM shows a strong pressure build from the SW. You can see a tropical draw easily forming out of that another 48 hours down the line

image.thumb.png.6ad5da210bdab72680bcdc71b40a06f2.png

Yes, the GEFS have been signposting this since the pre-weekend and it was only not stronger due to some of the members not handling the modelling of the Pacific wave breaking. The op and many members now coming together and this pattern change now more obvious:

anim_kkg9.gif

That is a strong mean anomaly. Too early to work out surface temps, but warm uppers definitely in the mix. A blocked pattern with an Atlantic trough so killing off some days of what winter we have left. Usually good verification on this setup so expecting 5-days plus ATM.

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The ECM pretty consistent with this mornings run .

Slightly better upstream at day 7 than the GFS .

The only thing upstream that could perhaps develop more favourably is the amplitude of the low near Newfoundland and how that phases with the chunk of PV .

If and it’s a big if . If we see more amplitude at that point the downstream impact on the low nw of Ireland would be to alter its track and develop a stronger ridge to the west of it .

This could help extend the cold. We might still end up at the same point later but it’s really about squeezing out as much interest before the PV takes over once again !

So Newfoundland area day 7 into 8 is something to keep an eye on . The more energy digs s/sw the better the downstream set up.

Apart from that area I can’t see much else at present which might improve things even temporarily and is within the scope of the overall pattern.

Edited by nick sussex
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12 minutes ago, Don said:

Wouldn’t be surprised if it does verify, but I seriously hope it doesn’t!  Would we exceed the temps recorded last February with that set up?

Don't be surprised to see it verify. Nothing to do with the fact that it's showing unseasonable warmth and 'that would be just typical for it to verify' but because it's the obvious trend. It would be totally crap but still incredible if the last week or so of February gave us a 'heatwave' for the 2nd year running. Utterly incredible and, again, extreme in its own way

Edited by LRD
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1 minute ago, LRD said:

Don't be surprised to see it verify. Nothing to do with the fact that it's showing unseasonable warmth and 'that would be just typical for it to verify' but because it's the obvious trend. It would be utterly crap but still incredible if the last week or so of February gave us a 'heatwave' for the 2nd year running. Utterly incredible and, again, extreme in its own way

I quite agree and it would certainly be alarming if it were to occur again so soon!  What were the uppers during the February ‘heatwave’ last year?

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Should we not be discussing next week rather than what might happen after? As we do have quite a bit going on early next week for a change 

so looks like some quite wild weather Sunday then the possibility of snow for some, maybe Cheshire gap streamers? Hopefully surprises for many

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