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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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1 hour ago, ancientsolar said:

those whiter areas over the Welsh hills and mountains .. and NW England.. + Swathes of Souther Scotland ,. 

I remember a forecaster once mentioning when wind is forced through the valleys and hills .. it can speed up .. the hills acting like a funnel .. or us trying to blow air through a straw

This is very true!

Storm Ciara’s path is looking awfully similar to one a few years ago which hit Scotland direct west to east, with the winds funnelling through the lowlands peaking 90mph+ widely, with a top gust of 105mph-ish not far from me. 

Definitely exciting but also worrying...

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After this colder snap with that PM flow the models reform the PV and stick the blob of doom to the nw which is just about the worst place for it .

This then throws up some TM air ne ahead of it .

Unfortunately there seems a strong signal for that across the outputs . 

Let’s hope that earlier PM flow can throw up a few surprises because the outlook after that is pretty awful for cold .

 

 

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5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

After this colder snap with that PM flow the models reform the PV and stick the blob of doom to the nw which is just about the worst place for it .

This then throws up some TM air ne ahead of it .

Unfortunately there seems a strong signal for that across the outputs . 

Let’s hope that earlier PM flow can throw up a few surprises because the outlook after that is pretty awful for cold .

 

 

Funny thing is theres such strong support for a mild spell after next week that it will come true!!but if it was the other way around and it was mild next week and then the ensembles were showing rock solid support for cold 9 times out of 10 it will go tits up!!such a Tut take!!!

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Funny thing is theres such strong support for a mild spell after next week that it will come true!!but if it was the other way around and it was mild next week and then the ensembles were showing rock solid support for cold 9 times out of 10 it will go tits up!!such a Tut take!!!

I would sacrifice the rest of Winter for a few potentially snowy days next week. Last flake was two years ago.

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Quite often charts get mistakenly identified as showing a 'Bartlett High'

Identifying this vileness as a Bartlett wouldn't be a mistake

image.thumb.png.94350ae6a3907bcda75c4f643a531fa6.png

If winter finishes like this, I will put this season up there (or down there) with 1988-89 as the joint worst winter in my memory

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Just now, LRD said:

Quite often charts get mistakenly identified as showing a 'Bartlett High'

Identifying this vileness as a Bartlett wouldn't be a mistake

image.thumb.png.94350ae6a3907bcda75c4f643a531fa6.png

If winter finishes like this, I will put this season up there (or down there) with 1988-89 as the joint worst winter in my memory

And get to the summer months the low and high will swap places??

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10 minutes ago, joggs said:

And get to the summer months the low and high will swap places??

Can't complain about recent summers down here in the tropical south. That's the flip/more positive side of the Azores High being increasingly dominant and bloated - although there's even a downside to that as it tends to kill of thunderstorm activity in the summer

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10 minutes ago, LRD said:

GEM continues with the longer term trend of utter guff

image.thumb.png.ccf665c51037031a17ee5211655783d3.png

As bad as it gets. It really is turgid, grim stuff

Don’t panic,spring starts in just over 3 weeks,and watch the charts begin to start looking the complete opposite as we enter March.You can see how it will look by turning your screen upside down?

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4 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

This looks tasty...tasty, tasty...very, very tasty!:shok:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Be alot of cloud around and rain in Western areas, not exactly spring like conditions.

All that said its too far out and always subject to change. The models do want to try and break up the Arctic PV via a Pacific ridge but it does not look convincing and nor does it look like affecting our weather patterns at this stage. 

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1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Don’t panic,spring starts in just over 3 weeks,and watch the charts begin to start looking the complete opposite as we enter March.You can see how it will look by turning your screen upside down?

I don't mind a cold March. If we get cold in April, though, I really will be grumpy

I'm not sure where to find those CFS forecasts. Not that they're necessarily worth much but if they're there, we may as well use them

 

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I know the MJO has turned into the Star Wars prequels . Over hyped and failed to deliver , that’s  my opinion maybe some others liked them but anyway .

Theres a huge divergence in forecasts there . The GEFS run this into phase 7 at high amplitude . The rest are not interested .

The last MJO event was muted out by other factors so even if the GEFS is correct there aren’t guarantees that it will help change the pattern but at this point there’s not much else happening re way of emergency crumbs !

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3 minutes ago, LRD said:

I don't mind a cold March. If we get cold in April, though, I really will be grumpy

I'm not sure where to find those CFS forecasts. Not that they're necessarily worth much but if they're there, we may as well use them

 

This is the CFS averaged anomaly for June...pretty typical low solar summer pattern

Screenshot_20200205-174624_Chrome.thumb.jpg.32d4f961c67e60f9411bfa6e2f1905d1.jpg

From the NOAA site.

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

This is the CFS averaged anomaly for June...pretty typical low solar summer pattern

Screenshot_20200205-174624_Chrome.thumb.jpg.32d4f961c67e60f9411bfa6e2f1905d1.jpg

From the NOAA site.

This is exactly the kind of pattern i dread TBH.

Massive northern blocking and a southerly tracking jet.

I hope it is wrong !!

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10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

This is exactly the kind of pattern i dread TBH.

Massive northern blocking and a southerly tracking jet.

I hope it is wrong !!

ensemble-probability-forecast-of-rainfal
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

Model probabilistic guidance for temperature and rainfall up to six months ahead. Updated monthly.

Met Office going for dry for the next 3 months

Summer's too far away yet but their 4-6 month look looks normal/dry for April/May/June

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