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Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    Using the ECM as an example, will be keeping a keen eye on future runs for any deviation of this LP which is the thorn in our side Sunday/Monday.

     

    ECH1-72.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

    Saturday evening overnight could be very windy for northwestern areas in particular but Stormy weather for many is looking likely for Sunday a powerful jetstream in excess of 200mph will likely develop across the Atlantic helping to really deepen this system as the centre moves close to the north of the country.. 

    wind300kt_20200205_06_108.thumb.jpg.13448c6691fa1d8053aa694e1ca61fd6.jpg

    Many places likely to see 50-60mph with the potential for 70-80mph in a few places exposed and coastal areas mainly all this accompanied by heavy rain moving across the country this could be sqaully too. 

    Ecmwf.. 

    gustmph_20200205_00_108.thumb.jpg.a6dbf3bc793c4fd4165060ef332d4d2c.jpg

    gustmph_20200205_00_114.thumb.jpg.608c1b1b85a12765f50539854f61d40d.jpg

    Gfs.. 

    Upper air temperatures.. 

    EUROPE_PRMSL_TMP850_102.thumb.jpg.0a887ce511d40fed87dc001cb6c3412c.jpg

    Wind gusts.. 

    EUROPE_PRMSL_GUST_90.thumb.jpg.70c398b0cefce6d6e62ce45cf36a4d70.jpg

    1689847997_EUROPE_PRMSL_GUST_102(1).thumb.jpg.741410f7c7b713e34acf48fe24689088.jpg

    132755138_EUROPE_PRMSL_GUST_108(2).thumb.jpg.4e095481ec0ec95aad18ca9255fedae6.jpg

    The wave depression that's modelled by this mornings Gfs and Ecm for Monday/Tuesday is not the storm that they've shown which could bring a stormy midweek period the low pressure system is there but the difference is its shown moving across the Atlantic towards us by Wednesday/Thursday instead of tuesday/Wednesday. 

    Yesterday midday Ecm.. ?

    overview_20200204_12_144.thumb.jpg.f0eab028a2bb06c8fc26594231b299d3.jpg

    This mornings update for same time.. 

    overview_20200205_00_132.thumb.jpg.4d9d025210620e2198be89abf3b48dd7.jpg

    This is the system.. 

    gustmph_20200205_00_168.thumb.jpg.96a91068fa21ace95f31feb72659278c.jpg

    gustmph_20200205_00_186.thumb.jpg.cbaa3fb4a70a9dff1efd9b55b64160e9.jpg

    Other models make this wave feature on Monday/Tuesday into the more significant low but uncertainty in this time frame. 

    The potential is there for a storm but its something to keep an eye on but that's all atm.  Sunday is one to watch though as it could bring some damage and disruption. 

    Edited by jordan smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    34 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

    Saturday evening overnight could be very windy for northwestern areas in particular but Stormy weather for many is looking likely for Sunday a powerful jetstream in excess of 200mph will likely develop across the Atlantic helping to really deepen this system as the centre moves close to the north of the country.. 

    wind300kt_20200205_06_108.thumb.jpg.13448c6691fa1d8053aa694e1ca61fd6.jpg

    Many places likely to see 50-60mph with the potential for 70-80mph in a few places exposed and coastal areas mainly all this accompanied by heavy rain moving across the country this could be sqaully too. 

    Ecmwf.. 

    gustmph_20200205_00_108.thumb.jpg.a6dbf3bc793c4fd4165060ef332d4d2c.jpg

    gustmph_20200205_00_114.thumb.jpg.608c1b1b85a12765f50539854f61d40d.jpg

    Gfs.. 

    Upper air temperatures.. 

    EUROPE_PRMSL_TMP850_102.thumb.jpg.0a887ce511d40fed87dc001cb6c3412c.jpg

    Wind gusts.. 

    EUROPE_PRMSL_GUST_90.thumb.jpg.70c398b0cefce6d6e62ce45cf36a4d70.jpg

    1689847997_EUROPE_PRMSL_GUST_102(1).thumb.jpg.741410f7c7b713e34acf48fe24689088.jpg

    132755138_EUROPE_PRMSL_GUST_108(2).thumb.jpg.4e095481ec0ec95aad18ca9255fedae6.jpg

    The wave depression that's modelled by this mornings Gfs and Ecm for Monday/Tuesday is not the storm that they've shown which could bring a stormy midweek period the low pressure system is there but the difference is its shown moving across the Atlantic towards us by Wednesday/Thursday instead of tuesday/Wednesday. 

    Yesterday midday Ecm.. ?

    overview_20200204_12_144.thumb.jpg.f0eab028a2bb06c8fc26594231b299d3.jpg

    This mornings update for same time.. 

    overview_20200205_00_132.thumb.jpg.4d9d025210620e2198be89abf3b48dd7.jpg

    This is the system.. 

    gustmph_20200205_00_168.thumb.jpg.96a91068fa21ace95f31feb72659278c.jpg

    gustmph_20200205_00_186.thumb.jpg.cbaa3fb4a70a9dff1efd9b55b64160e9.jpg

    Other models make this wave feature on Monday/Tuesday into the more significant low but uncertainty with this time frame and which low will be the main feature. 

    The potential is there for a storm but its something to keep an eye on but that's all atm.  Sunday is one to watch though as it could bring some damage and disruption. 

    Surprised by the Ecm windspeeds   i didnt realise they were that Bullish.  thats showing 80mph  inland    A major storm for those parts 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    image.thumb.png.c3a12f3214a1ae1e01958e3b49a25dc5.pngIcon  upgrades ( if thats the right word)  for Sunday   Brutal in some parts

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

    Worryingly stronger and upgraded for Sunday. This is absolutely brutal. 80 to 90mph for many inland areas of the midlands and north. 80 across the south, in places like London.

    icon-0-96-1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Second Low  Much stronger  on this run  

    image.thumb.png.23739a4dfa9337827bffa81ec9740f49.png

    Edited by weirpig
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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

    All could be scary but also quite exciting I’d say. As long as you don’t have your roof blown off of course, I’d imagine it will become less severe as we get closer to the day

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    And heights in the South waiting to build a North again it’s looking like,once the stormy weather has finished.

    Another mild month to come looking at things,but some snow for some places next week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
    Just now, weirpig said:

    image.thumb.png.02b55eded38ed668bf599011c6ce1f6d.png

    Just the 70-75mph for inland areas then ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

    Ironically this strong cyclonic event next week with nearly record braking +AO can provide more snow chances for us in Europe that any other previous synoptics this winter so far providing it can stay on the most southerly trajectory possible, well at least transient snow

    Edited by jules216
    spell
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    Posted
  • Location: Oldbury
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice, thunderstorms
  • Location: Oldbury
    6 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

    Just the 70-75mph for inland areas then ?

    Damm here in Birmingham that would cause carnage as much as I love extreme weather that could be very destructive. Still expect it to downgrade by Friday.

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
    3 minutes ago, radiohead said:

    12Z ICON does indeed ramp up the weekend low a few mb deeper (949mb) and as a result there is a little increase in max gusts on this run.

    iconeu_uk1-52-102-0_igo6.png

    those whiter areas over the Welsh hills and mountains .. and NW England.. + Swathes of Souther Scotland ,. 

    I remember a forecaster once mentioning when wind is forced through the valleys and hills .. it can speed up .. the hills acting like a funnel .. or us trying to blow air through a straw

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Barr sunday that storm that was forecast for next week is pretty much done and dusted!!!fizzled out to nearly nothing!!!but helps keep the colder flow from the northwest for slightly longer!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    Just now, shaky said:

    Barr sunday that storm that was forecast for next week is pretty much done and dusted!!!fizzled out to nearly nothing!!!but helps keep the colder flow from the northwest for slightly longer!!

    Suits me just fine, no troublesome warm sectors as a result.

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    Just now, shaky said:

    Barr sunday that storm that was forecast for next week is pretty much done and dusted!!!fizzled out to nearly nothing!!!but helps keep the colder flow from the northwest for slightly longer!!

    Set up still gives a chance of another server storm.

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    Set up still gives a chance of another server storm.

    Yep still something could develop but with the way things have swung in the last 24 hours doubt it!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland
    4 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Barr sunday that storm that was forecast for next week is pretty much done and dusted!!!fizzled out to nearly nothing!!!but helps keep the colder flow from the northwest for slightly longer!!

    On this run it intereacts with another area of low pressure south of Greenland while crossing the Atlantic. Could change again on the next run. That is not close to being resolved yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Oldbury
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice, thunderstorms
  • Location: Oldbury

    I wouldn't kick the GFS out of bed tonight. Just one of many potential snow charts. Plz let if verify for once.

    SmartSelect_20200205-163129_Firefox.thumb.jpg.cb0c8312c8bb04122129f5ceae10fe6b.jpg

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
    1 hour ago, ancientsolar said:

    those whiter areas over the Welsh hills and mountains .. and NW England.. + Swathes of Souther Scotland ,. 

    I remember a forecaster once mentioning when wind is forced through the valleys and hills .. it can speed up .. the hills acting like a funnel .. or us trying to blow air through a straw

    This is very true!

    Storm Ciara’s path is looking awfully similar to one a few years ago which hit Scotland direct west to east, with the winds funnelling through the lowlands peaking 90mph+ widely, with a top gust of 105mph-ish not far from me. 

    Definitely exciting but also worrying...

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