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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I wouldn't take much notice of a single perturbation, it's beyond what I would call a worst case scenario.

I agree. But just to see it in the ensembles is quite something.

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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3 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

I would imagine genuine blizzard conditions for Northern parts of the UK (especially with elevation) to boot?

Hard to tell. Depends how much Tm air it scoops up ahead of itself.

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Typical fantasy mega storms showing up on the gfs models, when have we not seen that before only for the lows to be massively downgraded nearer the time.

These charts are just simply unrealistic, as they are showing repeats of the burns day storm and 1987, which are only suppose to be three century events.

The ECM model already isn't buying into it.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

Typical fantasy mega storms showing up on the gfs models, when have we not seen that before only for the lows to be massively downgraded nearer the time.

These charts are just simply unrealistic, as they are showing repeats of the burns day storm and 1987, which are only suppose to be three century events.

The ECM model already isn't buying into it.

 

 

Actually, the ECM 12Z managed 100 mph gusts for the west coast of Ireland on the same day, so not totally different. 

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3 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

Typical fantasy mega storms showing up on the gfs models, when have we not seen that before only for the lows to be massively downgraded nearer the time.

These charts are just simply unrealistic, as they are showing repeats of the burns day storm and 1987, which are only suppose to be three century events.

The ECM model already isn't buying into it.

 

 

I think to dismiss the charts as being unrealistic is a bit short sighted.

I’m pretty sure the recent record lows in Russia and highs in Australia were seen as such when forecast, this year seems to be of extremes and looking at some of the charts we may be seeing one!!!!

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6 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

Typical fantasy mega storms showing up on the gfs models, when have we not seen that before only for the lows to be massively downgraded nearer the time.

These charts are just simply unrealistic, as they are showing repeats of the burns day storm and 1987, which are only suppose to be three century events.

The ECM model already isn't buying into it.

 

 

Yes I'm sure it will be downgraded   however  3 century events ?   1976  1987  and 1990   were three similar storms in 14 years   so  it most certainly is possible  if unlikely 

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3 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

Typical fantasy mega storms showing up on the gfs models, when have we not seen that before only for the lows to be massively downgraded nearer the time.

These charts are just simply unrealistic, as they are showing repeats of the burns day storm and 1987, which are only suppose to be three century events.

The ECM model already isn't buying into it.

 

 

Some of the ensemble members are far too extreme looking. But it is worth nothing though that both 18Z GFS and 12Z ECM are both showing a 960mb low crossing Ireland/UK next Wednesday. The position, shape, orientation of the low makes all the difference with regards to where a swathe of severe winds would or wouldn't be. There is a lot still to be nailed down because it will look a bit different on the 0Z runs in the morning I'm sure, but the potential is there for something significant.

ECU1-192_oig9.GIF174-21UK_iwt5.GIF

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1 hour ago, wimblettben said:

Typical fantasy mega storms showing up on the gfs models, when have we not seen that before only for the lows to be massively downgraded nearer the time.

These charts are just simply unrealistic, as they are showing repeats of the burns day storm and 1987, which are only suppose to be three century events.

The ECM model already isn't buying into it.

 

 

ECM model is buying into the secondary low though, as ever in these set ups, you could end up with a proper deep cyclongenis weather bomb type of low developing or something alot more shallower and nothing really that exciting. 

All that said, let's not forget how strong the winds could get from the main Atlantic low itself, severe gales still looks likely too me. 

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GFS Oz altho stormy looks to have moderated from last night.i suspect Scotland taking a hammering with snow esp Highland areas

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GFS a massive downgrade snow wise infact it removes the second low and result is everything being way further north. Scotland are still looking good for a right pasting. Further south we badly need it to correct southward or I fear it will be wet rather than white. Cant believe I got excited again should know better lol.

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34 minutes ago, snowstorm27x said:

GFS a massive downgrade snow wise infact it removes the second low and result is everything being way further north. Scotland are still looking good for a right pasting. Further south we badly need it to correct southward or I fear it will be wet rather than white. Cant believe I got excited again should know better lol.

Be interesting to see the 06z run.... Yes, have to agree the snow risk looks decidedly less for southern areas.... No surprises there..... Annoying after the corrections south we were seeing on previous runs. Let's see if it Reverts back on the next run before throwing the towel in... 

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17 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

Be interesting to see the 06z run.... Yes, have to agree the snow risk looks decidedly less for southern areas.... No surprises there..... Annoying after the corrections south we were seeing on previous runs. Let's see if it Reverts back on the next run before throwing the towel in... 

Yh agree I cant believe the second low has completely gone. Monday still holds a little interest but any further North and we all miss out as the uppers get mixed in with the dreaded warm sectors. But yh let's see if the 06z follow suit I hope not.

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No storm on 00z gfs and 00z ukmo!!you can see ecm trying to do the same thing but just manages to still develop it at 168 hours but further west and north compared to yesterday runs!!gota say looks liks ecm could be the outlier here but am gona wait till the 12zs just to be sure!

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10 minutes ago, shaky said:

No storm on 00z gfs and 00z ukmo!!you can see ecm trying to do the same thing but just manages to still develop it at 168 hours but further west and north compared to yesterday runs!!gota say looks liks ecm could be the outlier here but am gona wait till the 12zs just to be sure!

Yh I think we put this to bed now expect next ECM run to remove the storm also it only just scraped over the line and barely formed here. If I was a betting man I would say Manchester North has a chance of snow. Midlands and southerners good old rain and a bit windy. Seems the models jumped the gun on those dardboard lows. Await 06z for final nail for this event to join the many false Dawn's. ??

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12 minutes ago, snowstorm27x said:

Yh I think we put this to bed now expect next ECM run to remove the storm also it only just scraped over the line and barely formed here. If I was a betting man I would say Manchester North has a chance of snow. Midlands and southerners good old rain and a bit windy. Seems the models jumped the gun on those dardboard lows. Await 06z for final nail for this event to join the many false Dawn's. ??

Hmmm looking at the ensembles we still hit -7 850 temps on nearly 3 days so still cold enough for snow for us here in the central midlands!!it the matter of getting the damn precipitation thats the problem!!

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Still lots of uncertainty regarding exact Wind/storm stacks over the weekend into next week, Here's NetWx take.  Don't expect ant 'final coffin nails' to be hammered in for another few days yet..

507189356_viewimage-2020-02-05T070913_532.thumb.png.e4d1cd406b1a5e0f039cede4c8413045.png924665870_viewimage-2020-02-05T070937_436.thumb.png.12527c48c2d5d3c1c1f889c94ca0c98a.png691974129_viewimage-2020-02-05T070956_955.thumb.png.23d7aca66c75514c2a8a353b04e56bdb.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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I think one can clearly see the distinct possibility of these Atlantic lows having the knock on effect of eventually bringing an early taste of spring, perhaps even something akin to the latter stages of last Feb, days 9 and 10 of the overnight Ecm run being a typical example. Just look at that renewed surge of heights from the south ahead of that mid Atlantic storm which is diverted away to the northwest as a result. Yes, the Ecm traditionally has a bias towards over amplifying in the latter stages but this scenario cannot be ruled out either. So in summary, very unsettled, potentially disturbed from Sat to Wed inclusive followed by a gradual  settling down thereafter with temps by then average or dare I say above. 

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Let us hope some get snow the coming week as the outlook post-D10 looks decidedly mild and Spring-like. GEFS firming up further on some warmth in FI, the op a cheerleader for that trend:

op upper temp anomalies D10>D16 anim_otm0.gif

mean upper temp anomalies D10>D16 anim_uvc3.gif

The op keeps it cooler compared to the mean till later, then warmer, and we can see the D10 ECM closer to the GFS mean in that regard.

As for the storm next week, still too early as upstream still needs resolving (maybe 12z will nail it) and looking at the ensembles there are about 20 different solutions as to timing, location and strength. The majority >75% still showing for around D7-8:

Storm>gens_panel_pzf4.png  My locale>graphe9_1000_301_157___.thumb.png.ce8a49e75d1d0381d9f125417c223624.png

For my location the mean uppers barely get to -5c for a fleeting visit so ASL snow chances low, maybe the Downs but transient.

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13 minutes ago, Purga said:

Mild all the way into FI after the cool and windy blip.

image.thumb.png.059e5bdaf67c92706a9ca3a3f4bf90fa.pngimage.thumb.png.b1314fa2d49685848d09c5fab624de83.png

Depressing. Come on vortex. Do. The splits and give us all something to cheer and laugh about.... 

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Fairly consistent outlook last several days beyond early next week's brief cold snap.

The stratosphere appears well-mirrored in the troposphere over this side of the northern hemisphere, start of next week the strat PV elongated with one side across the NE Atlantic and other side over Siberia, similar in the troposphere looking at 500mb, strong W/NW flow deep through the atmosphere over the far N Atlantic.

However, by day 10 the SPV tightens it's circulation and becomes more rounded while the core drifts back towards Greenland, probably because the strat warming over N America subsides, this mirrored in the troposphere, with a more rounded TPV in the means back over Greenland, strengthening ridging over Europe and a milder SWly flow across the UK. Extended EPS showing this signal for a while now up until day 15.

Monday EC 10mb and EPS 500mb mean 00z

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-1292800.thumb.png.c113df78a8e34acec0e87b6c1ba7dda9.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500-1292800.thumb.png.bd385a3c96626ccaf5f16122a0484f06.png

Day 10 EC 10mb and EPS 500mb mean

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-1724800.thumb.png.c1299c156e9207b8714ba3bcbdb924ed.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500-1724800.thumb.png.c46886ac718f7b860c58b8f32a260802.png

 

 

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