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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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I know it's the 18z but I would not be surprised if this is close to the final version, looks plausible to me. Cold enough for snow as the low moves off.

 

gfseu-0-174.png

gfseu-0-180.png

gfseu-1-180.png

gfseu-2-180.png

Edited by snowray
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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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The good news is this seems to hit overnight, for the worst conditions anyway.  Obviously still subject to change at this range.  Incredible gusts being shown, with 100mph winds across the south of England, Ireland and Wales

image.thumb.png.55513ff4efc48bf9eb5ee641b508a4fd.png

 

 

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Dangerous storm on the gfs  history maker   off the scale windspeeds  could be close to 180_200kmph   surely cant verify   then blizzard conditions at 180hrs  

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4 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Just another 100 miles further south and it's blizzards across a large swathe of England. 

image.thumb.png.2fff65c61ca272b7a24652d318fb3e67.png

 

I agree > incidentally there was 1 model that did show this earlier - the JMA

DED71D3C-0755-42EF-A9CA-99C6A3584109.thumb.png.9aa8bdda3fd2693a2508aca62d66c13a.png

Incidentally the GFS is showing the largest wind zone in the southern zone which means on the northern side of the low could see a significant snow event as long as there isnt to much WAA ahead of it.

Elevation >250M would be pummelled on this run.

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Meanwhile, Scotland is busy trying to dig itself out...

Monday morning 01:00hrs

image.thumb.png.7f070fd0ac166ebbac7c011a2d71a3d0.png

Tuesday 01:00hrs

image.thumb.png.f29a1d97f63ed66010e61a25f6db86b2.png

Wednesday 01:00hrs

image.thumb.png.af4682f57db5ca81826964e46e501d3b.png

Thursday 01:00hrs

image.thumb.png.4e6d88d221824ddfba2bda3b3690f805.png

Obviously these are not to be taken too literally, but I think it's likely that those north of the border are going to have a weather week to remember (as may the rest of the country?!)

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2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Meanwhile, Scotland is busy trying to dig itself out...

Monday morning 01:00hrs

image.thumb.png.7f070fd0ac166ebbac7c011a2d71a3d0.png

Tuesday 01:00hrs

image.thumb.png.f29a1d97f63ed66010e61a25f6db86b2.png

Wednesday 01:00hrs

image.thumb.png.af4682f57db5ca81826964e46e501d3b.png

Thursday 01:00hrs

image.thumb.png.4e6d88d221824ddfba2bda3b3690f805.png

Obviously these are not to be taken too literally, but I think it's likely that those north of the border are going to have a weather week to remember (as may the rest of the country?!)

Good time to visit the highlands for some wild weather and deep snowfall, even the south gets in on the act with some settling snow on the 18z.

gfs-16-204.png

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32 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Just another 100 miles further south and it's blizzards across a large swathe of England. 

image.thumb.png.2fff65c61ca272b7a24652d318fb3e67.png

 

Sorry but have you forgot Wales exists! ? 

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Control  showing the same carnage   the low slightly more to the north than the op although good continuity 

gens-0-1-174.png

Edited by weirpig
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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Ive skimmed the ENS.

This would be utterly crazy a 920MB storm hitting ireland with that wind field....

A7F8610B-82E1-4279-B643-01BD77E06F3D.thumb.jpeg.5466d56a9febe4a812063d734e732c0e.jpeg

Yes  and the chart after  spot the uk 

gens-2-1-180.png

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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Ive skimmed the ENS.

This would be utterly crazy a 920MB storm hitting ireland with that wind field....

A7F8610B-82E1-4279-B643-01BD77E06F3D.thumb.jpeg.5466d56a9febe4a812063d734e732c0e.jpeg

Im a noob here - and just learning TBH - but that deep a depression hitting the west coast of Ireland, in a westerly, would likely bring storm surges not seen since the 1960's - in particular the lower lying regions in Galway would see utter devastation. 

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920mb pressure, whats that....Cat 4 hurricane?

Charts are madness this would be destructive and impressive.

Just waiting for the downgrades and for it to all go flat as a pancake!

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I'm a slight novice at this and, looking at those lows whilst mentally working out how to move my house away from the beach to behind something sheltered, I am intrigued by the fact the GFS and Icon overstate windspeeds. If this is the case then do any models knowingly understate it? X

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2 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

920mb pressure, whats that....Cat 4 hurricane?

Charts are madness this would be destructive and impressive.

Just waiting for the downgrades and for it to all go flat as a pancake!

I'd imagine the equivalent hurricane category to the chart Steve posted would be high end 3 or 4.

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