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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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Just now, shaky said:

Such a beauty to look at!!its a plume of cold air travelling around the high from scandi and a direct hit for us!looking for upgrades on 12z!!

Would prefer lower heights tbh.

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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Gfs 06z 

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Will this bring Mr Murr back.

image.thumb.png.8933875eede6f120d6116c3947257e85.png

Certainly an upgrade for this cold plunge on the 06z, I wonder if UKMO and ECM will come back on board later on?

-12c uppers clipping East Anglia!:shok:

132-7UK.thumb.gif.34124b2026ce95dab5c72adb97bda8cc.gif

Nothing marginal there.

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Edited by snowray
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2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

“As the days grow longer the cold grows stronger” certainly true of the ECM this morning.

 

 

Imagine if it were actually winter!

The temperatures at ground level look similar to a polar northwesterly in January. Just shows what lengths we have to go to to get cold this late in March.

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ECM clusters:

image.thumb.png.8c3edf104662ca89880580a417a3275e.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020032400_192.image.thumb.png.fbbbefea278a5c5967f532c166cac68e.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020032400_300.image.thumb.png.5c011706462b7ce19f6e7cf56e01401d.png

Looking blocked up until around day 10. By day 12-15 the ensembles are starting to sniff out a bit more low pressure influence, but this is far and away at the moment. For what it's worth, tthe GFS ensembles are similar with the mean SLP dropping to 1010mb around the same time-frame. One to watch.

image.thumb.png.36821ac8e28abdcb5f7898584b9da63f.png

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3 hours ago, shaky said:

Just took a look at ukmo and its pushed everything south and east!!even the ecm has slightly!!as you say for me the only hope is gfs sticks to its guns!!i guess the good thing is it will be much drier!!

That concerns me slightly, especially with it being the UKMO backing off.

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1 minute ago, Don said:

That concerns me slightly, especially with it being the UKMO backing off.

But then again the ukmo was further east on yesterdays 00z run but then backed west slightly on the 12z so lets hope its does the same today!!

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