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phil nw.

Model output discussion 02/02/20

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Storm still on the ecm  a tad further north than the icon    some wild weather on offer for some 

Edited by weirpig
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Ecm at 216hrs...looks like some rather cold uppers in the mix.. Come on ECM you know you wanna.. ?

By day 10 it's milder again, with another potential deep low pressure knocking at the door, plenty of cold pooling even in the mid Atlantic.. Perhaps that next feature can give us another run at some colder pm air, subject to positioning of course.. At least the Conditions look a little more Interesting. 

ECM1-216.gif

ECM0-216.gif

tenor.gif

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-240.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM is much flatter at day 9 than this morning .

Another more hopeful 00hrs run has already hit the buffers .  Not a single more positive output for coldies from the ECM at day 9 or 10 has survived this winter .

 

Yep  but will it look like that anyway at  day 9    the upcoming weather for the next 10 days is conductive of  lows spawning  from anywhere  and they may even do at  a few days notice  that in itself will change any pattern we see at day 9   one thing is for sure a very interesting week or so of weather coming up   

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I hope the gfs is right regards in terms of that stormy low and colder 850s!!!cmon gfs keep it going trump the ecm for once!!!i got a bad feeling though that the deep low will be back on the 18z!!ecm is kinda boring the 850s are slightly milder than gfs and then takes the storm so far north that it just becomes really wind everywhere and i dont think its on the level of that gfs 06z from earlier in terms of wind!!zzzzzzz!!!

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Relentless 

14EB4B42-4B83-4C04-A042-0885BD1F2952.thumb.png.670e5ba97effdadb7dfc864d83ed0366.png

 

The TOTAL lack of an easterly flow this winter has been notable. 

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I think what the outputs show is the GFS dartboard deep low potential is a real one but we could easily see something much more shallower. Nevertheless some severe gales is still forecast for next week even if the very deep low does not come off. 

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Poor output continues.  We may have to chuck  in the towel for February even at this early stage as the ext EPS continue their horrific indications.

The ECM det is more in line with ensemble guidance so the hints of Atlantic amplification were always a long shot.

Edited by mulzy
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1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Make the most of any PM flows because by day 10 there’s more chance of me joining the Moonies than any cold from there !

Unfortunately Weir putting aside any developing shortwaves the broad pattern looks well agreed on .

We won’t be able to develop much upstream amplitude with where the PV is located. 

Anyway for fear of being brandished a misery I’m going to stop moaning ! Let’s see what the ECM ensembles have to say later .

I’ll be back to moan then ! 

Don’t worry about coming back to moan Nick are do it for you ?
 

ECM day 10 mean bloody horrible (if you want winter to turn up that is ) ?

7D25C74A-ACDE-4216-A844-F24677523170.png

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28 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Poor output continues.  We may have to chuck  in the towel for February even at this early stage as the ext EPS continue their horrific indications.

The ECM det is more in line with ensemble guidance so the hints of Atlantic amplification were always a long shot.

Some blocking over the pole so that is a large change to now does look AO will go neutral maybe even negative for a time, much will depend on whether jet is deflected south enough, otherwise it would be very mild SW’ly. But looks unsettled either way. Cold rain or warm rain? 

Edited by Daniel*

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Well folks this winter has been ruddy hard work... The extended ens point to no major cold outbreak at all! The Exeter update is about as crud as you can get for cold. Even a die hard coldie like me is now about to admit defeat for this season.... Prematurely??... Possibly!! Any saving graces at all??? Perhaps by March a pattern change may emerge, could be for the better, could be for the worse.. Wouldn't be suprise to see heights set up shop over scandy come then... So make sure to highlight March 18th for some better sypnotics in your diary... Its coming folks.... Just alot later than normal...?, other than that, we only have just a few more months till the next Winter rolls around, talk about wishing ya lives away.. ?

cfsnh-0-1038.png

cfsnh-2-1038.png

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Icon moves towards gfs at 120 hours!!clearly see the low over the states on the 12z at 126 hours has pretty much gone at 120 hours on the 18z!

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18Z ICON looking stormy on Sunday. 943mb low. Gusts up to 160 kph in parts of Ireland and Scotland. Widespread inland gusts over 100 kph.

 

iconeu_uk1-2-117-0_tny8.pngiconeu_uk1-52-120-0_qxv4.png

Blizzards for high ground in Scotland

iconeu_uk1-45-120-0_xjv8.png

Edited by radiohead
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3 minutes ago, radiohead said:

18Z ICON looking stormy on Sunday. 943mb low. Gusts up to 160 kph in parts of Ireland and Scotland. Widespread inland gusts over 100 kph.

 

iconeu_uk1-2-117-0_tny8.pngiconeu_uk1-52-120-0_qxv4.png

In regards to the storm after that i got a feeling 18z gfs will bring it back!if not then i reckon we have got ourselves a new trend here and maybe expect ecm to downgrade that low tomorrow morning!!

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Lunchtime Monday looks a bit lively:

image.thumb.png.9895786f8cc615e60fdaad36ea261007.pngimage.thumb.png.75017e3a18db88270e8ac2ff99503ba6.png

Plenty of snow around as well (if the GFS charts are to be believed?)

image.thumb.png.5e486d868a28f0f39c2ac41f2544eb41.png

The Wednesday storm looks like it's back as well!?

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Storm back on the GFS and slightly further south it appears.
image.thumb.png.153babf074ceafc3626fc8942257a854.pngimage.thumb.png.f5aaee912fc71e91afb2cb89ab8a651e.pngimage.thumb.png.5895fa8d28f20eb7bc8b9ca142d21c6d.png

Edited by PerfectStorm
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Back again on the 18z running along the powerful jet:

gfseu-0-144.thumb.png.8f770bb7d0b8c65c6ec3a485007a9e49.pnggfseu-5-144.thumb.png.6bc0b19eea10ce50edf530c5feac6057.pnggfseu-2-144.thumb.png.9e0e517dddfd68463401b8cdf71d380b.png

Soaking up moisture and revving up, quite a storm.

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Aaaand on cue 18z brings back a major storm!!snow showers before hand and probably after the storm has passed aswell!!

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3 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Storm back on the GFS and slightly further south it appears.
image.thumb.png.153babf074ceafc3626fc8942257a854.pngimage.thumb.png.f5aaee912fc71e91afb2cb89ab8a651e.pngimage.thumb.png.5895fa8d28f20eb7bc8b9ca142d21c6d.png

Yep, definitely further south.... and an absolute brute! At 174....

image.thumb.png.25015a3ad54955ed9c84e5095a159893.pngimage.thumb.png.f038ebfd532ee6fd74330238ff8ce17e.png 

 

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...a weeks time:

gfseuw-14-168.thumb.png.68e1c2cd04139968b4e2adffe5496dc0.pnggfseuw-14-174.thumb.png.b445f2beff4f1bc39278cff50d821110.png

*Subject to change.

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Just another 100 miles further south and it's blizzards across a large swathe of England. 

image.thumb.png.2fff65c61ca272b7a24652d318fb3e67.png

 

Edited by PerfectStorm
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