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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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1 hour ago, JON SNOW said:

Gobsmacking charts from the ECM 12z operational..516 dam at the end of March would be sensational!?

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 Very snowsational indeed! (sorry, lol) ?

May not be the ideal setup for the virus that’s going around. But as one or two say, these sort of charts make quite a nice distraction to what’s happening at the moment. 

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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The current output from the UKMO reminds me of 15 years ago Feb 27th.

I lived in Eltham then > The temp at 2pm was just below -1c

-13c Uppers & a biting N.Easterly but settled. Snow flurries in Kent.

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GFS ens mean even colder for London on the 18z at around -8c, further north it's closer to -9c/ -10c. The op is actually one of the mildest runs.

 

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18z control run, bitterly cold if it was to verify, maybe close to an ice day in places with snow and a harsh frost to follow. Think I'll leave planting any veg in the garden a while longer.

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Not an easy time for us at the moment I know, and the last thing the country needs is this sort of cold weather when things should be warming up, but the weather will do what it wants of course. Just a month or so ago if charts like these had turned up the thread would have been humming, but it's all a bit too late now and people have more important things on their minds with the current situation.

Take good care of yourselves everyone, it's likely going to get worse with this dreaded virus before it gets better but at least we can still come on here and that helps to keep our minds off it for a while anyway.

Edited by snowray
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Even the ever reliable CFS has gone full beast mode with frequent minus 10-11c upper air temps even through the first week of April!

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Can I point out that cold weather will stop the transfer of the virus quite significantly.

Hopefully the hospitals will not have so many flu cases as well so an incoming cold snap should be a good thing

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29th March is the peak of the coldest uppers according to latest 0z Icon run before a mixing out with less of a N of East component to the wind after 

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Edited by Kentspur
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3 hours ago, snowsummer said:

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with the weather and leave all else out of it? Its going to be a long 12 weeks as it is

Quite right! I’m sick to death of peoples sanctimonious rubbish about flipping Covid. Nowt to do with me, nowt to do with the sodding weather. . 

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Runs this morning not quite as cold as last night, but still probably some of the coldest of the winter/early spring as a whole.

GFS and ECM mean is down to around -6 to -8c:

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Still a chance of snow down to lower levels for a time in a week or so.

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7 hours ago, Rocheydub said:

a wee question 

is flight data an issue here?

Hello Rocheydub,

I doubt it judging by the number of aircraft still flying.

Please click onto the link below to give you an idea.

fr24_logo_twitter.png
WWW.FLIGHTRADAR24.COM

The world’s most popular flight tracker. Track planes in real-time on our flight tracker map and get up-to-date flight status & airport information.

If you wish to see other areas worldwide click on an aircraft and then click on either the departure or arrival location to see the amount of traffic in that area.

It is fascinating to observe the diverse destinations.

Kind Regards

Dave

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1 hour ago, The PIT said:

Classic winter charts now we are in spring which is fairly typical.

Yeah not a surprise anymore.

Happens a lot recently,some very cold air from the weekend onwards.

At least if we get snow it will rapidly melt in the daytime now,and not cause too much trouble to add to all the problems.

 

Obviously if things were normal you would want inches of the stuff to fall at night so it would take much longer to melt.

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The cold snap does not look all that severe on this mornings 06z run, we have HP then establishing itself over the country so things warming up somewhat in early April, should be some pleasant sunny days at least with temps into the low teens I would expect in many areas.

 

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A wee bit of everything in today's GFS 06Z:

Next weekend looks ghastly: h500slp.pngh850t850eu.png

But it then gets better:            h500slp.pngh850t850eu.png

The end? Who knows!            h500slp.pngh850t850eu.png

And now it's time I moseyed on down to Iceland, in the vain hope that the marauding hordes of brain-eating zombies have left me any food for tomorrow!?

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If this cold spell/snap comes off, there still the question of its duration and looking at the 6z GEFS it’s all on the table . Some quite cold looking runs in there for the end of March . ?

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Very cold ukmo 12 run minus 12hpa for some areas,why is this never in the winter months,so frustrating.

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5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Very cold ukmo 12 run minus 12hpa for some areas,why is this never in the winter months,so frustrating.

I know, don't it make you sick!:bad:

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