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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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Just what the Country doesn't want at the moment our NHS are under enough pressure without all the issues a cold snap could bring.

C.S

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2 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Just what the Country doesn't want at the moment our NHS are under enough pressure without all the issues a cold snap could bring.

C.S

Indeed. In fact Italy getting a cold blast when things should be warming up down there, and then Its our turn and much of northern Europe. Not good.

 

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Fascinating watch the temp drop today over here. Started at 1c at 0500 and was down to -9c at 1700hrs. Forecast cold advection spot on at 850mb level ( that's about the height of the village at 5000feet absl) Forecast  chart tomorrow even colder.

C

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16 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Just what the Country doesn't want at the moment our NHS are under enough pressure without all the issues a cold snap could bring.

C.S

True, but on the other hand less people are likely to want to go out?

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eeWNIt8.png

As has been mentioned already, a few runs touching around the -10 850s mark now. 

 

The Op was quite a mild outlier in the mid to long term too. Looking like a chilly/cold snap is firming up now.

Edited by NewEra21
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52 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Just what the Country doesn't want at the moment our NHS are under enough pressure without all the issues a cold snap could bring.

C.S

Yes, this is dreadful model watching at a time we really really don’t need it.  Great had it been December/January - but please not now with all that’s going on ?

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Cold ECM from day 5. Rain band turning snow as it slips south next weekend followed by a raw NE flow and snow showers 

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Gobsmacking charts from the ECM 12z operational..516 dam at the end of March would be sensational!?

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Evening All ?

Fascinating to see tonight's ECM 12Z OP follow last night's GEM 12Z setting up a large HP between Iceland and Greenland and sending a very chilly NE'ly flow across the British Isles. JMA also supportive of the evolution.

GFS still struggling with this more unusual evolution - the mid Atlantic HP goes NE and to the north of the British Isles but the E'ly flow is maintained by the trough over Europe with LP close to southern parts. There's a breakdown of sorts in far Fi

In the shorter term the OP looks to have plenty of support in the Ensemble as the Mean suggests:

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It looks fine but chilly to the north and west and thoroughly unpleasant to the south and east - -12 850s approaching next Monday suggesting below average temperatures in contrast to this time last year.. 

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You have to laugh really,  now we are in Spring the models are showing the best set of atmospheric synoptics we have had all Winter!!!

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12 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

You have to laugh really,  now we are in Spring the models are showing the best set of atmospheric synoptics we have had all Winter!!!

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Yes these type of synoptics are far more likely from now on until June than any other stage of the year, chances of northerly and easterly airstreams increase markedly at this time of year, also coincides with the drier part of the year for the NW, another sign northerlies and easterlies can have a more dominant influence.

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7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes these type of synoptics are far more likely from now on until June than any other stage of the year, chances of northerly and easterly airstreams increase markedly at this time of year, also coincides with the drier part of the year for the NW, another sign northerlies and easterlies can have a more dominant influence.

The question for me is whether the duration and strength of the PV this year has made them more rather than less likely.

The current warming is substantial and that may be what is weakening the PV to allow blocking to occur.

 

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

?

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So to my surprise the GFS and UKMO moved to the ECM tonight! 

Stunning winter charts - if you still want winter. 

Could be snowfall almost anywhere this time next week if current charts verify. 

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Ok, ECM is not an outlier, in fact probably the coldest set of ens from the ECM that I have seen this year. Still quite a spread there though.

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Edited by snowray
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