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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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There is def a cold cluster on the gefs ens around the 27th/28th and 29th

graphe3_1000_264_30___.thumb.png.6f22d4e157eb9602a56b28edd9a95e04.png

mean 500 and 850's at 192

gensnh-21-1-192.thumb.png.e68e2698c80bb6405323b2281c8b58f5.pnggensnh-21-0-192.thumb.png.d2797ba41f6bfe36d0c7035d21ac86a6.png

it would of been nice to have this in winter instead of now with all what's going on,we might see snow falling out of our windows if a lock-down is enforced

i am still with you all guys,stay safe out there

              "STAY CALM"

"WE WILL GET THROUGH THIS"

night.

 

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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35 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Also, the GFS is still suggesting a cold plunge on days 7 and 8.

Brrrrrr! :cold: 

 

 

 

To be fair, we are due a cold plunge.  Been a while since we had one!

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6 hours ago, Don said:

To be fair, we are due a cold plunge.  Been a while since we had one!

Agreed, and on yesterday's evidence it might be required to keep people from treating the current threat as an opportunity for a day out... Sorry to politicise. 

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11 hours ago, johnholmes said:

Wow that is some change on the NOAA charts from what I posted yesterday, not sure if this will link in

image.thumb.png.ab112cd650a0c4d662b7d2174dc18f9a.png

Good it has. You can see the large difference on the 6-10 on my post  compared to the one in the post above from Allseasons-si. If this change is kept for 2-3 days, and with the 8-14 showing similar it looks a reasonable bet then a marked change in pattern.

Yes, and imho it heightens the chances of that dead weather off the north sea... low grey stratus ... oh joy ?

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Snow showers for N and NE Britain.

image.thumb.png.38c4aaa4c49d6013a1a47bdcad0c67a0.png

There goes my March CET guess out the window, looking like low 6's now not 7.3.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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42 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GEM still going for a proper Cold spell with a little snow for most 

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Remarkable how the GEM has stuck to it's guns with this, could end up quite snowy and not just in the far north.

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Some cold synoptics on offer this morning for the end of the month. In the near term, staying generally fine and settled and a bit milder away from the far NW, which unfortunately will be plagued by persistant quite heavy rain and strong winds off the atlantic. As we move into the middle of next week, the frontal system plaguing the far NW will begin to edge slowly SE through Scotland, turning conditions more cloudy for many with a more atlantic moist feed ahead of it. By the end of the week, we will have heights building strongly through mid atlantic and more importantly towards Greenland this will enable the front to swing south through the whole country with a cold polar feed behind it. Next weekend based on this morning's run looks cold with possible wintry showers not just on high ground and some sharp frosts. ECM prolongs the cold feed with a trough feature moving down and heights building in behind with a bitter cold NE/E wind feed.

Arctic airstreams - by end March can still pack a cold wintry punch.. quite a turnaround in affairs this second half of March is proving to be..

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We're well and truly into the time of the year of quickly changing conditions, especially when winds are from between 0 degrees and 180 degrees.

archives-2003-4-4-0-0.png archives-2003-4-10-0-0.png archives-2003-4-15-12-0.png archives-2003-4-20-0-0.png

It wouldn't surprise me if we saw flips between cold and warm if what is shown in the models for the next week or two become the norm. Look no further than April 2003 that switched between cold northeasterly, very warm southeasterly, and chilly easterly.

 

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GFS

The latest GFS run shows settled weather dominating the British Isles up to day 5. After day 5, colder and perhaps more unsettled weather will start to dominate by a cold plunge. The cold plunge stretches as far down as Morocco.

h500slp.thumb.png.2c984dfeb49e01a73bbf82e202d5f6a9.png  865188948_h500slp(1).thumb.png.a9ba78a9d0cab9837687c9b87a132f7a.png  1641658132_h500slp(2).thumb.png.0cb492b7005dd7f27d852f0b598391d9.png  1974097569_h500slp(3).thumb.png.0873ba8755a8168409cfcc3624c098d5.png

During the cold plunge, I decided to have a look if there is a chance of any snow falling. By looking at it, there definitely is a chance, although it all looks to be falling on higher ground at the moment. This is the most widespread I could find:

prectypeuktopo.thumb.png.90eac9e1f3b35da7f4b313acb767acad.png

Then, on day 9, settled weather slowly and gradually starts to take charge again. It shows the high taking charge up to day 16!

534602341_h500slp(4).thumb.png.5a796c71d0c5c7bf66ad27a0405f1a34.png  22465325_h500slp(5).thumb.png.b3a934b4c3d4fa16e5958177de5d1780.png  1303088030_h500slp(6).thumb.png.40119df87ed6c9a64cea38869113f57a.png  1908357105_h500slp(7).thumb.png.b5d63e80c0e49f97766274c4f83123aa.png

 

ECMWF

The ECMWF has a near-similar approach. It has the high over the UK up until day 4. It suggests the cold plunge to take place a little bit earlier.

ecm500_024.thumb.png.3cdf8a5e6bb6352b8e0106f4eafd4c10.png  ecm500_096.thumb.png.e579e079400125e9363f599d8c4dea6b.png  ecm500_168.thumb.png.2c4713793350cdc99119bbee70a5f043.png  ecm500_240.thumb.png.9e79c74b88c18e016b9c8e867a8e5257.png

GEM

The GEM has the high dominating Europe up to day 6, so it suggests that it will dominate for a little bit longer then the GFS and the ECMWF suggest.

gem.thumb.png.6effe2b79579421b49f3b2974074a06a.png  gem0.thumb.png.66f27ab48ea6d02f0427cb49424349ce.png  gem1.thumb.png.07fb371b879627329a2861aa04e3af23.png  gem2.thumb.png.b49fc1a87d8161019f48b52740719337.png

And then on day 6 onwards, the plunge of cold air starts to dig in up to day 10.

gem3.thumb.png.9b2a9239bcd6479ef255e52db6563572.png  gem4.thumb.png.b6bc223d8e58081a9eff1c4871874f7a.png  gem5.thumb.png.1d223b3eda079c379bac59cea4c7642b.png  gem6.thumb.png.32808908478e1a75c86643d288f76b86.png

As I did with the GFS, I decided to see if there could be any snowfall during the cold plunge. I found these!

gem7.thumb.png.678222aa2c9a6a26f6dd36763d2eb930.png  gem8.thumb.png.9db55dd43090a91e5770507e65236465.png  gem9.thumb.png.82c6f32915405377674544ea6cabcc47.png

(Tried a new style of posting today - don't ask why! ?)

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Latest GFS 12z also shows settling snowfall as far South as London and Kent. What happens now if this comes off? Theres not much left to panic buy?

Screenshot_20200322-161255_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20200322-161313_Samsung Internet.jpg

20200322_161031.jpg

20200322_161017.jpg

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12 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Latest GFS 12z also shows settling snowfall as far South as London and Kent. What happens now if this comes off? Theres not much left to panic buy?

Screenshot_20200322-161255_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20200322-161313_Samsung Internet.jpg

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Indeed it is @Kentspur!

Perhaps our last snowfall event of winter this year? Some places that haven't received snow yet (e.g. the majority of the country) could have a chance if it verifies!

prectypeuktopo.thumb.png.8528378683b10cfb45b23d32580c3838.png  907106248_prectypeuktopo(1).thumb.png.50c6048f21821fbb12cbdcb9968c0f49.png  2123037983_prectypeuktopo(2).thumb.png.2d23b7fd020efcc4adde22e135c53c82.png

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15 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Latest GFS 12z also shows settling snowfall as far South as London and Kent. What happens now if this comes off? Theres not much left to panic buy?

Screenshot_20200322-161255_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20200322-161313_Samsung Internet.jpg

20200322_161031.jpg

20200322_161017.jpg

?

What's the chances now!!! 

Edited by Griff
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Ukmo 12z!!!not only got cold continental air coming in from.the east but at 144 hours look at that blocking to the northwest with incoming cold air from the north east!!looks better than gfs dare i say!!

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2 minutes ago, snowray said:

More madness from the GEM, and yes, that's -12c uppers into Southern England!?

 

 

gemeu-0-156.png

gemeu-1-162.png

It almost seems as if the weather is mocking us! 

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3 minutes ago, snowray said:

More madness from the GEM, and yes, that's -12c uppers into Southern England!?

 

 

gemeu-0-156.png

gemeu-1-162.png

Scary thing is ukmo looks remarkably similar at 144 hours!gfs could be playing catch up still in regards to the blocking to the north west!!

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2 minutes ago, Griff said:

It almost seems as if the weather is mocking us! 

 

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Scary thing is ukmo looks remarkably similar at 144 hours!gfs could be playing catch up still in regards to the blocking to the north west!!

Yes its them weather gods that have got it in for us again, Winter about to bite for the first time, for many of us anyway, at the end of March.

I keep saying what could possibly go wrong, but this time it looks pretty well odds on that something very cold for the time of the year will turn up by the end of the week. ECM will be the banker later on of course.

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GFS ens looking pretty chilly there even for London and snow symbols to boot!:cold:

 

graphe_ens3.gif

Edited by snowray
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8 minutes ago, snowray said:

GFS ens looking pretty chilly there even for London and snow symbols to boot!:cold:

 

graphe_ens3.gif

Snow in spring, whatever next.

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10 minutes ago, snowray said:

GFS ens looking pretty chilly there even for London and snow symbols to boot!:cold:

 

graphe_ens3.gif

And the extended....

graphe3_1000_265_28___.thumb.png.e6273bf08095c8a011e0cf3731e90ec5.png

and the cold looks extended too compared to last nights.

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