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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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Hey all. Hope you are all doing well.

The latest GFS run shows a bit of a cold plunge at the start of April, perhaps followed by what could be some warmer and more settled weather, as seen hiding out in the Atlantic!

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The ECMWF is also showing something interesting at the end of March!

ecm500_216.thumb.png.514450c6ac97b7c0c6856d4b492b4a1d.png

ecm500_240.thumb.png.6b0d1c104328c90ed57f30265f23763e.png

Edited by Zak M
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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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15 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Me like ECM 0z operational cold upgrade!??

0EE2B697-9191-45E3-9EC4-127BE082DEB4.thumb.png.0a46d8b2e5df6a7d5e5d741fc65e9f03.png7BDEF61C-FEB0-4CDA-928E-3FD5BB01BC5D.thumb.png.12a2f8a2c38b204e8028594cb5c626ae.pngFA54376F-04EC-4B3C-A9F9-7F56C7CD92C8.thumb.png.ba15beedf1eec40bc9a0f4f86836b0f8.pngA9ED1613-8F68-4731-AC72-9FAE4B67BA8F.thumb.png.336da5a974767125f2a5a1b6f22483ef.png

Hi Karl, hope you and your dad are coping OK in these difficult times. Yes the ECM is putting us into a cold situation moving forward. Infact the operational is going ballistic with nearly - 10 uppers!! Even the mean remains on the cold side. Will it do us any favours with current affairs? I'm not sure, but I certainly feel like I need to divert my attention away from this pandemic, as I feel like I'm slowly drowning under the sheer weight of it. But hey ho, this is weather, and it will do what it wants to do, regardless. But Yeh, some cold weather on the way according to some model output.. Stay safe all. 

graphe0_00_266_106___.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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From my point of view 2 feet of snow would be great to stop people coming down to Cornwall holidaying and spread corona about to a county with about 12 itu beds. 

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25 minutes ago, mbrothers said:

From my point of view 2 feet of snow would be great to stop people coming down to Cornwall holidaying and spread corona about to a county with about 12 itu beds. 

I think there is more chance of Corona disappearing completely in the next few weeks than there is of 2ft of snow in Cornwall! I think the best coldies can hope for is a few flakes. Personally I’d be happy for a dusting & some more weather like today to get out and enjoy some fresh air 

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34 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Today's GFS 12Z operational still suggestive of possible warm-up commencing around Day 8::yahoo:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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I'll leave it to Papillon to decide what's best to do with the GEM!:oldlaugh:

Very easy on the eye those charts for early April, what could possibly go wrong? 12z ens a bit all over the place in FI so no real trend, but do confirm that it will remain dry and that a colder spell of weather is looking likely later next week.

 

 

 

graphe_ens3.gif

Edited by snowray
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Here we go ECM is running with the GEM and this is for D7 not exactly la la land!?

 

ECE1-168.png

ECE0-168.png

:help: Wheres Steve M when you need him??

Edited by snowray
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19 minutes ago, snowray said:

Here we go ECM is running with the GEM and this is for D7 not exactly la la land!?

 

ECE1-168.png

ECE0-168.png

:help: Wheres Steve M when you need him??

Really is the GEM going to pull this one off this time, and not appear a complete @rse?

 

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1 minute ago, Dorsetbred said:

Really is the GEM going to pull this one off this time, and not appear a complete @rse?

 

You never know, must get it right at least once a year....this could be it...?

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Compare GFS/UKMO with ECM at D6

ECM clearly more amplified, though GFS/UKMO are poised to provide more amplification by D7/D8

gfs-0-144.png?12  UW144-21.GIF?21-18  ECM1-144.GIF?21-0

Definitely an occasion where the ECM is likely to be overdoing it.

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Although I’m hoping the ECM 12z is right about a cold plunge later next week, I have to say it was a jolly spiffing end to the GFS 12z today!?

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5 hours ago, mbrothers said:

From my point of view 2 feet of snow would be great to stop people coming down to Cornwall holidaying and spread corona about to a county with about 12 itu beds. 

Would help here in the Lakes too...and they think they're doing us a favour by coming...

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Evening All ?

Not a lot of clarity in the medium term this evening.

The question is what happens with the second push of HP at the end of next week and there are four scenarios out there currently:

1) ECM 12Z OP: The HP tries to ridge north but fails and withdraws back SW though still as a strong anticyclonic feature. With heights to the SW and NE unable to assert the gap is filled by the trough and by T+240 clear signs of the trough becoming negatively aligned through the British Isles.

2) GFS 12Z OP: The HP builds NE and then transits to the east well to the north of the British Isles before collapsing SE into western Russia. There's a brief spell of E'ly winds before the Atlantic re-asserts.

3) GFS 12Z Control: The HP builds NE and sets up shop to the north of the British Isles instigating a pattern change to more northern blocking and a slack E'ly flow over the British Isles.

4) GEM 12Z: The HP builds NE and sets up to the NW of the British Isles as an intense HP in response to which the Scandinavian trough tilts SSW into Europe leaving the British Isles in a strong and cold NE'ly airflow.

I'd argue looking at the GEFS at T+288 the OP is an outlier with the ensemble members strongly supportive of northern-based blocking though with varying permutations in position and orientation.

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Been a while posting but it does look like there will be a retrogression of the hp cell to move to a location that we have not seen all winter,over Iceland/Greenland in the next ten days or so

the mean anomaly's show this well 

gefs,eps and cpc

gensnh-21-1-240.thumb.png.c259cbad75fbcefa7564b56e55ae797c.pngecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.59cd91848ed403237298f43943c66176.png

610day_03.thumb.gif.5e32906b27ad2c6f3fb13c8a91325dd0.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.89b4d646e284a1122454087f0f2e6480.gif 

why!

here's why,a major SSW/final warming taking place as of now and here is the jma at 6 hrs and 48 hrs,i would expect the spike on the jma 10hpa plot to uptick further in the coming days

JN6-5.thumb.gif.07ea3e4e259349ab02935a3549ef1cb1.gifJN48-5.thumb.gif.179a257fae2b6521e51e14d09177a0c8.gifpole10_nh.thumb.gif.70ccb24ac43cf7659d188ec3faa0fe0a.gif

a look at the NAO/AO and these are showing a deceleration into neg values that could promote northern blocking

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.b3976fe41bcdaecfd6b2dc7a29b1d2fe.gifao.sprd2.thumb.gif.afd1ea6420ab803b200840bb95885389.gif

the mjo cycles esp the gefs are orbiting back into phase 7/8 but the ecm because it only goes out to day ten is playing catch up 

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.thumb.gif.ffb0a5383ad8c6c199114b9fe7b3b5f7.gifECMF_phase_51m_small.thumb.gif.2b599ae5deecb8dd43f148c1a5105a43.gif

on a final note,i have been in isolation since last Wed/Thu,nothing too drastic with a sore throat and a slight cough,no high temps though and it just feels like a cold but i am not taking any chances

a part of me wants to see a final cold plunge but the other part of me(mostly)wants this winter to end,it have been a slog this winter,bring on the warmth now PLEASE.

 

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Wow that is some change on the NOAA charts from what I posted yesterday, not sure if this will link in

image.thumb.png.ab112cd650a0c4d662b7d2174dc18f9a.png

Good it has. You can see the large difference on the 6-10 on my post  compared to the one in the post above from Allseasons-si. If this change is kept for 2-3 days, and with the 8-14 showing similar it looks a reasonable bet then a marked change in pattern.

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37 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

WOW . I just had to post the GEM 12z run . Now that is a proper stonker ?

The GEM is definitely a cold ramper these days!

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41 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

WOW . I just had to post the GEM 12z run . Now that is a proper stonker ?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The GEM seems to be a mild ramper these days!

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Hey all.

The latest GFS run is still showing temps into the high teens at the start of April - if only it could verify!

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And, perhaps a thundery breakdown along with it? ?

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5 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Hey all.

The latest GFS run is still showing temps into the high teens at the start of April - if only it could verify!

 

It might well do!

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Also, the GFS is still suggesting a cold plunge on days 7 and 8.

Brrrrrr! :cold: 

h500slp (10).png

h500slp (11).png

h500slp (12).png

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