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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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21 minutes ago, jethro said:

I'm beginning to wonder about this theory of warmer weather slowing the spread of the virus. I know seasonal flu dwindles as the weather gets warmer, but it's warmer and drier in both Italy and Spain, it's not making any difference there.

Back to the weather, wouldn't be surprised to see snow before it finally warms up a bit, countless times down south we've had a good 6 inches late in the season, sometimes very late and into April. It can be cold enough but it doesn't tend to last more than a day or so. 

I think I saw that it needs to be properly warm (ie summer warmth - temps in the high 20s+)....but as others have said, it's currently late summer in Australia and warm there - it hasn't really stopped the spread there much, if at all.

 

Edited by mb018538
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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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About all I can gather, from today's GFS 00Z, is that high pressure never looks like being too far away; but positioning and orientation of that high pressure'll be a bit of a lottery...Though, plenty of sunshine ought to be rather damaging to RNA strands...??

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

In the meantime STAY SAFE everyone!:oldgood:

 

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35 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

About all I can gather, from today's GFS 00Z, is that high pressure never looks like being too far away; but positioning and orientation of that high pressure'll be a bit of a lottery...Though, plenty of sunshine ought to be rather damaging to RNA strands...??

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

In the meantime STAY SAFE everyone!:oldgood:

 

ECM & ECM ens - cold.

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What the hell is the matter with the GEM? ??

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73.thumb.png.906ff8fa92c1a33cc3837002a1a49060.png

Edited by Zak M
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58 minutes ago, Zak M said:

What the hell is the matter with the GEM? ??

7.png

71.png

73.thumb.png.906ff8fa92c1a33cc3837002a1a49060.png

Maybe it has Coronavirus, it seems to be right of one in the past couple of days, as these suggestions are way out of line..

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One word for the ECM & clusters in the 10 day period - blocked:

image.thumb.png.2c73abe910887975fe3fe4124e1e9181.pngimage.thumb.png.85a44adab60f178b2e16019dbddfc79a.png

After this it's a bit up in the air without much agreement between models at all, so will leave things at day 10.

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A possible signal for a southerly drift? But, with things as up-in-the-air as they are just now, I'll take it with a massive pinch of salt!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

 

Edited by General Cluster
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1 hour ago, Zak M said:

What the hell is the matter with the GEM? ??

7.png

71.png

73.thumb.png.906ff8fa92c1a33cc3837002a1a49060.png

Snow ramper! ?

Edited by Don
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A question sorry if it's been asked before.

But how is the lack of flight data and ship data going to effect our weather models?  And with the drop in CO2 activity will global warming be halted maybe even reversed a  bit?

 

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Me like this from ECM 12z operational..and its only 1 week away!??..what could possibly go wrong??

B003C849-4E8C-4879-9C02-A4F14F3C1364.thumb.png.d9f011932db57b06d92a1f4e0252c489.pngAE9FCD8E-2A54-489A-8CDB-06871813BA82.thumb.png.9c01c4d9bf1f020d237af7c6e96e8af7.png

 

Edited by JON SNOW
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9 hours ago, mb018538 said:

One word for the ECM & clusters in the 10 day period - blocked:

image.thumb.png.2c73abe910887975fe3fe4124e1e9181.pngimage.thumb.png.85a44adab60f178b2e16019dbddfc79a.png

After this it's a bit up in the air without much agreement between models at all, so will leave things at day 10.

Typical. Astronomical spring starts and there’s more northern blocking than you can shake a stick at. The final sneering laugh of a pathetically dire winter

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5 hours ago, Snow Queen one said:

A question sorry if it's been asked before.

But how is the lack of flight data and ship data going to effect our weather models?  And with the drop in CO2 activity will global warming be halted maybe even reversed a  bit?

 

I think it would take quite a few years to halt or reverse Global Warming?

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As is often typical as we move towards April, we are seeing a more quieter spell of weather, with the atlantic somewhat coming unstuck against strong blocking to our east. ECM showing a shallow trough feature moving down from the NW towards end of next week, GFS more of a westerly influence, but then a rapid change with significant Greenland blocking and heights to the NE. Let's see more runs..

In the reliable plenty of useable weather - tidy up the garden after the long wet winter.

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2 hours ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Typical. Astronomical spring starts and there’s more northern blocking than you can shake a stick at. The final sneering laugh of a pathetically dire winter

Sneering laugh... Love it 

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Hi all. The hunt for warmer and more settled weather continues.

I'm liking the latest GFS run. It is definitely showing and indicating some spring like weather at the beginning of April:

h500slp.thumb.png.c5827ba3faf28cbbe58c4b8046f8c538.png

1100405837_h500slp(1).thumb.png.ad4487a78808ef5f0ba8a79d8452006d.png

303323826_h500slp(2).thumb.png.3853269d5026b4e1a85f56f604470c8b.png

Considering that it's now spring, any spring like weather is definitely welcome! There is also signs of unbroken sunshine to come within the next few days although it might feel a little bit chilly with temperatures below average.

I also can't wait for late April when temperatures should start getting warmer!

Have a good night/morning everyone.

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Yeah very cold ecm, amazing how yet again northern blocking takes over as we end winter and spring arrives, with the Azores high nowhere to be seen, yet look how it dominated the majority of the winter season. 

Need it warm and sunny now to try and help lift everyone's spirit for the long at least 3 months ahead. Take care everyone. 

Edited by SLEETY
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7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Yeah very cold ecm, amazing how yet again northern blocking takes over as we end winter and spring arrives, with the Azores high nowhere to be seen, yet look how it dominated the majority of the winter season. 

Need to warm and sunny now to try and help lift everyone spirit for the long at least 3 months ahead. Take care everyone. 

I am rather wondering about the highlighted bit

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z500_anom-5591200.thumb.png.ce09682a9d05b395cbd71bda7ee48015.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-5591200.thumb.png.51953a11c0bc3c28099cf4f6bcd6d63a.png

Edited by knocker
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47 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Yeah very cold ecm, amazing how yet again northern blocking takes over as we end winter and spring arrives, with the Azores high nowhere to be seen, yet look how it dominated the majority of the winter season. 

Need it warm and sunny now to try and help lift everyone's spirit for the long at least 3 months ahead. Take care everyone. 

ECM is a bit of an outlier this morning for SLP and 500mb heights. Ensembles look on the cool side, though not as cold as the ecm op.

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At least the trusty GFS 00Z operational's still suggestive of a trend toward some rather warmer weather edging slowly northwards, around developing Atlantic troughing/LP...It's a long way off, just yet, but it is what should happen, as we go into early April??

T+300:  h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

T+384:  h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And, judging by the GEFS ensembles, uncertainty may be a tad less extreme than it has been, of late:

            prmslBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

            t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

Anywho...Here's hoping!:oldgood:

Edited by General Cluster
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