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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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33 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Now THAT'S what we need!!

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Sadly as much chance as verifying as any potential colder shot...but yes agreed..it's what we need given current [email protected] days plus away......

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Lovely ECM again tonight - high ends up in a better location and cuts off the colder air. Much better than the GFS and GEM solutions.

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2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM gets the High in a very spring-like position by D8

ECM1-192.GIF?17-0

Probably going to be into the high teens on this chart. Potential to go higher in the days after if the high holds in that position or drifts east. Could still go a bit chilly if the high pulls west or north.

It does feel as if spring is about to be sprung. A small consolation for those who won't be getting out much next week ? 

Yep quite warm 12z ECM but with cool nights...18C next Tuesday who fancies that? Sorry Scotland! 

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I’m a big winter cold and snow fan but also a huge spring/summer warm/hot sunny weather fan, so am glad things are looking good synoptically for the latter, particularly as we enter a period of increasing social isolation. For people who will be able to escape the confines of their house to get their food shop or get some exercise, having good weather makes all the difference and lifts our spirits during this difficult time. 

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Coldies have had nothing to smile about for the last 4 months but P4 GEFS 0z made me smile...interesting to note that the GEFS 0z mean indicates high pressure pulling west towards mid Atlantic which would potentially open the door to a proper arctic outbreak, even in late March / early April it would pack a punch!?

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Good news: the GFS 06Z op says the early part of next week may not be too unpleasant after all??

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Good riddance to cold easterlies? I wouldn't bet my igloo on it!:oldlaugh:

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A strong example of a small change in the near-term growing exponentially into a considerable one by the mid-range. 

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We've often lost easterlies that way, thankfully this one was only looking dank and miserable anyway (partially a result of both snow cover deficits to our east and the North Sea being widely 0.5 to 1.0°C above average, up to 2.5°C in south).

Much to be resolved regarding how far north the polar boundary is next week and where exactly the ridges focus themselves. ECM keeps going for some ridge development right over us, to keep us mostly shielded from the N. Atlantic with some pleasantly warm-feeling days possible. This latest GFS run instead builds in a new high from the southwest on 26th after a decaying front has made its way southeast across much of the UK on 25th - not as good, but not terrible either.

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Morning all ?

It looks as though there will be too much residual energy in the jet to hold a Scandinavian HP in position so it sinks south to become a mid latitude feature.

A continued lack of clarity going forward toward the end of the month. 

The PV at the 10 HPA continues to look very distressed at month end so a resurgence of northern blocking during April looks possible - again, nothing unusual in that.

A bleak start to April from the 06Z GFS OP:

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

UNDER SHE GOES!!!!!!   -   BOOM!

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What a strange post....

Dull, cold, damp, a bit like today really... its the end of March not the end of January..

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14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

UNDER SHE GOES!!!!!!   -   BOOM!

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What does that mean? Where is she going?

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Near term - becoming settled for all, once we lose the frontal feature draped over southern parts tomorrow, high pressure nosing in and ridging.building to the east. However, it now looks a shorter lived affair than even just a couple of days ago, as energy over the N Atlantic is expected to power through and topple heights into central europe, with an initial chilly easterly becoming a milder south easterly. Next week looks very uncertain, models not very convincing - so will leave it for now.

 

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Evening all ?

What strikes me from GFS and ECM in particular is the pattern change we are seeing in the medium term as, after months of relative heights over Europe, the continent sees a broad but shallow trough take over later in the month. Indeed, some of the charts look more like May than March in that regard with heights developing over Scandinavia and further NE.

It doesn't look as though we will get an E'ly from an Scandinavian HP but from a European LP with the British Isles close to the trough. 

 

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4 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

UNDER SHE GOES!!!!!!   -   BOOM!

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That won’t do anything. It’ll just be cold, grey and about 6c. Who wants that? Nobody.

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8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

That won’t do anything. It’ll just be cold, grey and about 6c. Who wants that? Nobody.

might set the scene for a cyclonic type NE by mid april though - the only thing that can give us a tonking by then.

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