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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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12 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

What are you taking about? A lot of Scandi highs emanate from Azores ridging, Both GFS and ECM mean has easterly flow it may be brief and not that cold but an easterly is very much on.

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Well, we will see.  

I think not yet, I don't think the high is going to get far enough north. After the strat warming, then maybe.  Just my thoughts obviously. 

Edited by Mike Poole
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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

What are you taking about? A lot of Scandi highs emanate from Azores ridging, Both GFS and ECM mean has easterly flow it may be brief and not that cold but an easterly is very much on.

A561477E-46B8-422E-BD2F-655321D13246.thumb.png.656601cc2eec103e45a5526117dca35e.pngE3AA7CBC-B392-4E1C-8F1B-6B3516A247A6.thumb.gif.37b5f866af84b95ce143cb84d0c9cc93.gif

Yes your very much right easterly looks likely.

but more runs needed to see where we go after this.

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UKMO shows the ENEly becoming more of a ESEly inline with some of the the other models that go out further the GFS does show a little wintryness clinging to the NE of England/E Scotland though before then

UW144-21.gif

gfs-2-156.png

Edited by Kentspur
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Got to laugh really with all the flip-flopping. Looked like a cold easterly would set in, now it's almost off the table completely! The ECM this morning doesn't even have one at all, and isn't really cold either.

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Looking at the GEFS 0z there are strong signs that our weather will be settling down as high pressure takes control. Compared to recently there is much less support for a very cold easterly although it still can’t be ruled out completely next week but there is more support for a warmer SE’ly...however you look at it there is a much quieter spell on the way which is what’s most needed!?

Edited by JON SNOW
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We have some mild daytime temperatures to start this week for central and southern parts but turning colder by Thursday for most. 

We'll see rain heavy at times that is currently effecting the far northwest move southeastwards through the rest of the day, during tonight and will be across central parts of England and Wales tomorrow morning, turning lighter and patchier though some heavy bursts remain possible mainly for parts of Wales before easing throughout the day. 

Icon.. ?

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By tomorrow afternoon a wave depression will be moving northeast bringing more rain some of it heavy across northern Ireland, northern England and southern Scotland with hill snow for Scotland too, the trailing cold front from this will only slowly move southwards through tomorrow night heaviest rainfall most likely for northwest England and Wales where 20-40mm may accumulate altogether in places here, this front will be stretching through central parts of England and Wales on Wednesday (my birthday) ? and will probably continue to gradually push south into southern counties of England by Wednesday afternoon/night some of it still may be heavy and perhaps squally in places, some uncertainty with how quickly this clears the south but it probably will linger during Thursday morning likely not clearing away until later in the day, with colder air behind this pushing south some of this rain could turn wintry also wintry showers move south into Scotland. 

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During Friday and into the weekend Winds turn to the east then the southeast by Sunday especially for England and Wales with frost likely for many, it will probably be mostly dry for most over the weekend apart from the risk of a few showers perhaps wintry. ?

Gfs.. 

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Into Monday and Tuesday next week it probably remains mainly dry for England and Wales as high pressure will likely be mostly in control but more wet and windy weather may move into northwestern parts of the country. 

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6 hours ago, SLEETY said:

 

But poor performance from the moldels AGAIN regarding an easterly outbreak.

Not sure what you mean there... surely the models were doing their job and illustrating what the current data suggested may be the evolution ahead?
 

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2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Not sure what you mean there... surely the models were doing their job and illustrating what the current data suggested may be the evolution ahead?
 

GFS  and ecm were showing sub - 8 hpa heading towards parts of the UK, but as we have moved nearer the time frame the chance of that looks less likely now. 

So it proves its utterly pointless looking at beyond 5 or so days ahead when an easterly is being shown as it hardly ever verifies as shown. 

Frustrating but that's how it is. 

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39 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

GFS  and ecm were showing sub - 8 hpa heading towards parts of the UK, but as we have moved nearer the time frame the chance of that looks less likely now. 

So it proves its utterly pointless looking at beyond 5 or so days ahead when an easterly is being shown as it hardly ever verifies as shown. 

Frustrating but that's how it is. 

Thats why i use the anomaly charts as a guide first before viewing the ops... the anomaly charts didnt imho allow for much of an easterly, so when it was shown on the GFS and ECM ops i didnt give them much credence. This applies equally across the board, not just easterlies.

I did post "what easterlies" last week with  anomaly charts to support the point being made. Of course that wasnt popular on here amongst the coldies, but it verified didnt it!...

Edited by mushymanrob
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Tonight’s ecm 12z looks - dare I say it - quite pleasant by day 7-10 for most as the chilly air is replaced by milder conditions from the west. Hopefully that verifies. If it’s not properly cold, I don’t want chilly air that leaves us with 5-8c maxima for days.

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1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

GFS  and ecm were showing sub - 8 hpa heading towards parts of the UK, but as we have moved nearer the time frame the chance of that looks less likely now. 

So it proves its utterly pointless looking at beyond 5 or so days ahead when an easterly is being shown as it hardly ever verifies as shown. 

Frustrating but that's how it is. 

It think this time it was more of an issue of how much cold could get sucked under the high before it moved in, as the continent can no longer produce its own cold pool at this time of year. Not really a failed easterly. 

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Trending much more settled for all - at long last once we get tomorrow out of the way, Wednesday will see a more showery feed, becoming cool on Thursday but drier for many, and by Friday we have high pressure overhead resulting in a frosty start and sunny though quite cool day. Weekend looking settled as well, with easterly feed becoming more of a southeasterly - question is how cloudy will the high be? 

 

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Gfs showing more of an easterly again and ecm reverted back to another mild operational from the pack, so this still isn't settled! 

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A fairly warm UK high set up at day ten on latest ECM 0z run- just what the doctor ordered to cheer people up

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Edited by Kentspur
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Could the ECM and GFS be any different at +240h?

                                        ECM.                                                     GFS

500s   image.thumb.gif.9b642662a6de9342cf26ec60a37d06fc.gif   image.thumb.png.1e43a6acdc4de60882bc1c594292008f.png

850s.  image.thumb.gif.e7d74c9f143d5db7420d9c88abdfd0e7.gif.  image.thumb.png.a6ac6ec47ef93789ce0a9092a5470d07.png

Almost diametrically opposite!   Would prefer ECM solution, personally....

Edited by Sky Full
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1 hour ago, Sky Full said:

Could the ECM and GFS be any different at +240h?

                                        ECM.                                                     GFS

500s   image.thumb.gif.9b642662a6de9342cf26ec60a37d06fc.gif   image.thumb.png.1e43a6acdc4de60882bc1c594292008f.png

850s.  image.thumb.gif.e7d74c9f143d5db7420d9c88abdfd0e7.gif.  image.thumb.png.a6ac6ec47ef93789ce0a9092a5470d07.png

Almost diametrically opposite!   Would prefer ECM solution, personally....

Can we just cut out that GFS like it doesn't exist and keep with the ECM please

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The UK high on the latest ECM 240HR looks as though it might retrogress and open the UK up to much colder air. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this as we end March and move into early April. There is still some very cold air to the north and north west.

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39 minutes ago, Dunstable Snow said:

The UK high on the latest ECM 240HR looks as though it might retrogress and open the UK up to much colder air. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this as we end March and move into early April. There is still some very cold air to the north and north west.

That would not surprise me in the slightest...... white Easter?

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