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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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Well the cold members won the day at D5, the next lot of scatter is around D8, still a lot of things to be resolved with the energy distribution, milder or colder late March? All bets are off!

 

 

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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Yes models appear useless when it’s not the norm with westerly winds .High pressure over Scandinavia seems to cause them all sorts of problems,the op was one of the mildest runs after it bought in the initial Easterly.

So still we don’t know hold cold or not it will become yet.

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4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Yes models appear useless when it’s not the norm with westerly winds .High pressure over Scandinavia seems to cause them all sorts of problems,the op was one of the mildest runs after it bought in the initial Easterly.

So still we don’t know hold cold or not it will become yet.

And if you look at Northern Italy 06z is a cold outlier, so it's almost certainly got the cold too far south.

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Edited by snowray
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There’s certainly some unseasonably wintry potential on the GEFS 6z which is just outside the reliable timeframe, this is an interesting period of model watching for coldies for sure, even if it ultimately amounts to nothing.

05CBA2D6-0C30-4DAB-9C7E-8E65343A715E.thumb.png.e14bc3c19f520d9023e440ce55d87cbc.png16B9640E-3C50-46CE-885A-EFEFF15F67F1.thumb.png.b4fb420ec8e4508734d78198d44b08d1.pngD72C6AC5-4F3F-490A-84CD-AEF7881DDED7.thumb.png.da002cafb131a103c1c4e101384fc0f0.png391ED0BB-33BB-4AC1-910F-A80A4952D70D.thumb.png.0591749016cfaf1c7fb1de6ba491d139.png

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Must admit, looking at the models again, it will certainly be cool to have a more settled spell to help take away some of the depression and gloom some of us have been having. And hopefully the type of settled spell to make it a big obstacle for that virus to carry on surviving!

Clearly, a chillier spell that includes wintry weather still can’t be ruled out, especially for the South of the UK. But be nice anyway to see a bit of a change. 

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Many Ensembles pushing that cold wave west - which would bring increased snow threat-

PTB 1 looking very similar to UKMO 144 moves to this

16FC3DC7-C344-4264-9B99-E3A29DE2A973.thumb.png.6e42abc7b4d809519646b35febee0186.png4FAFB9A4-497F-4217-A48E-D63C5D0222FE.thumb.png.a5e11bb5da3642fc06051a647f5ddf6b.png

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17 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Many Ensembles pushing that cold wave west - which would bring increased snow threat-

PTB 1 looking very similar to UKMO 144 moves to this

16FC3DC7-C344-4264-9B99-E3A29DE2A973.thumb.png.6e42abc7b4d809519646b35febee0186.png4FAFB9A4-497F-4217-A48E-D63C5D0222FE.thumb.png.a5e11bb5da3642fc06051a647f5ddf6b.png

Will be interesting to see how it turns out Steve (from a virus POV too) but the GEFS have been showing that cold bias and GEM ensembles have backed off the easterly (they never really showed it strongly apart from that run I posted a few days ago) 

 

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Although we loose the cold feed pretty quickly on the GFS 12z Operational one gets the feeling that we are going to see frequent swings back to cold although predominantly settled over the coming weeks as the PV breaks up. Its been a wretched winter season and I have been motivated to post at all given the rubbish served up since last December. Fair play to Crewe C and those others who called it very early on. Hopefully we can get to see some drier and colder weather ( relative to the seasonal average) with a little bit of snow before the chance is gone until next November.

I do remember the Spring of 1975 very well and it would be great if we got to witness a repeat this year although that probably asking a bit too much(I was living in Surrey at the time and there was plenty of snow in the outer London suburbs to enjoy) and Fulham definitely wont be going to the FA Cup final like we did that year ( perhaps a play off final though if the season ever gets finished !)

Stay safe and well everyone.

 

 

GFS - 15.03.2020 - 12z.png

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Gfs op another mild run again from the pack, looks like it's still clueless as plenty of colder options on the table still. 

Over to ecm to attempt to sort this mess out and ukmo at t144 looked suspect to me as well. Shame not more are posting, helps take your mind off the major story ?

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12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM at 144 about 10-11 degrees warmer than UKMO at the same time for London. 

Worst of the bunch again.

It’s hilarious....by 192 it’s back to a SW flow. 

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All bets are off where the ECM operational sits in the ensemble pack due around 7. 51 tonight. 

Ridiculous diffence between it and the other two main weather models. 

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1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

All bets are off where the ECM operational sits in the ensemble pack due around 7. 51 tonight. 

Ridiculous diffence between it and the other two main weather models. 

Massive mild outlier.

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13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Massive mild outlier.

That would make it the 4th mild outlier for the ECM on the trot, according to my reckoning.?

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14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Massive mild outlier.

Many times we have seen that the milder outlier wins out. So, apart from cold deluge, nothing else should be expected. Not great for the virus point of view either.

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1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Gfs op another mild run again from the pack, looks like it's still clueless as plenty of colder options on the table still. 

Over to ecm to attempt to sort this mess out and ukmo at t144 looked suspect to me as well. Shame not more are posting, helps take your mind off the major story ?

I always get carried away by the operational, and usually let others query its status, thanks for the tip off ?

t850London.png

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We'll find out in the morning how good the UKMO is..

Hopefully it's right because it's the only model that looks like producing a bit of snow.

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Well a quick comparison of the last two GFS runs, 18z at T156 and 12z at T162, 18z first

image.thumb.jpg.1ba6b44112b64f7910c0edeec7b150fd.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.45c83683e7741d6372288938059606e1.jpg

Big difference, 18z has link up with the Azores while,the previous run does not.

So I think the weight of evidence is for no easterly - why doesn't that surprise me?  

One thing that does surprise me though,  is toilet paper!  What is this about?  I can't get my head round it, and I can't get it round my head either, because that would be a total waste of what society has decided is the most important commodity in the here and now.  Folks, we have to get a grip!

Edited by Mike Poole
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1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Well a quick comparison of the last two GFS runs, 18z at T156 and 12z at T162, 18z first

image.thumb.jpg.1ba6b44112b64f7910c0edeec7b150fd.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.45c83683e7741d6372288938059606e1.jpg

Big difference, 18z has link up with the Azores while,the previous run does not.

So I think the weight of evidence is for no easterly - why doesn't that surprise me?  

One thing that does surprise me though,  is toilet paper!  What is this about?  I can't get my head round it, and I can't get it round my head either, because that would be a total waste of what society has decided is the most important commodity in the here and now.  Folks, we have to get a grip!

What are you taking about? A lot of Scandi highs emanate from Azores ridging, Both GFS and ECM mean has easterly flow it may be brief and not that cold but an easterly is very much on.

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Edited by Daniel*
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