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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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Interesting to note that the ECM was a mild outlier, it would seem to me that the cold air has been pushed too far east on the 12z runs.

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12 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

NO 

So I'm guessing you want something a little bit colder then?

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1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

I've gotta be honest now me scandinavian mucka, there aren't many more die hard cold lovers than me, there are plenty like me no doubt, but the thought of a significantly colder Conditions in April when we could all be under lock down fills me with dread.... It could completely work against us with this virus! I just hope and prey this acts like a seasonal type of flu and eradicates with warmer conditions. Wouldn't it be great to get this virus out of the way and for it not to return, and for us to be in with a much better shout for next winter... Cold wise that is. Like others have said, the form horse perhaps looking more like a coldish high bringing some frost at night and hopefully a bit of a drying out situation... Not been posting much on here lately folks far to stressed at present, but I would just like to say you guys are as ever doing a fantastic job of covering it. Stay well. 

Indeed. More milder weather will definitely help us in this mess we are in right now.

The GFS is showing this Wednesday to be mild. 15c in places.

Edited by Zak M
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GFS 18z is showing cold air to take charge on days 12 and 13.

Considering the current situation we are in right now most people wouldn't like this, but probably @Snowfish2 and a few others would like this run. ?

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Edited by Zak M
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Models all over the place again, if they were so far out at D7, well who knows what D10 will look like??

Look at the spread at D5, joke.

 

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GFS 18Z doing its best to ditch the easterly with more influence from southern low pressure and, as such, warmer uppers. Probably still on the cloudy side and perhaps wetter but at least not colder.

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51 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'd like a nice sunny and warm spell to lift us out of the doldrums we're currently in...please...

I think we all would, CC and I hope you are OK.  

I am not sure that is what we are going to get, unfortunately.  It looks initially like a cold dry high, GFS 18z T192:

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The warming in the strat now peaking at T174, so getting closer:

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I think the weather may trend colder after, but not cold enough to impact the coronavirus,  and that also is probably not what we want.

Edited by Mike Poole
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3 hours ago, snowray said:

Try and pick out a trend in that lot...good luck.

 

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And the ECM was a mild outlier at the critical timeframe.Models never seem to handle blocking over Scandinavia very well.Cant rule anything out yet regarding this High and where it eventually settles.

 

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Edited by SLEETY
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Cold end to UKMO once more GFS ensembles still really split though as Steve said yesterday a more SEly element to the flow looks favoured at present  

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Gfs ensembles are absolutely useless, look at the difference in temperature at the critical time period. 

Could turn very cold or mild, with over 15c spread in temperature. Have to wait a while yet for any clear outcome. Ecm was just as clueless last night. 

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ECM also showing more of a milder SEly flow in the main with the frigid cold poor held back Germany SEwards

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ECM another outlier again,so still nowhere closer knowing the eventual outcome is regarding this High.

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There are quite a few juicy GEFS 0z perturbations showing a bitterly cold easterly in around a weeks time, if this was mid winter i would be gutted if we missed out on a beast but since it’s late March we are talking about, I’m not so bothered and I’m just looking forward to a more settled spell now.

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And there's hope, folks. Hopes that, once we lose the nuisance-cold for the first ten days, things'll warm up a bit? Most important, however, is that things look like staying dry!?

T+174: h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png  ?

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Roll on Summer!!!!?

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Im not sure why theres any excitement about a late SSW, I cannot find any correlation between late SSWs and any kind of warm/cold spells at all.. maybe im missing something?

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Still significant uncertainty over the depth of cold arriving from the East > For the SE of England a cone of about 10 Degrees @850 at the moment with the landing zone somewhere between -2c & -12c

The Mean has trended colder again because its reducing the energy in the biscay low & some models are developing a wave back in central Europe.

Here is the mean. 00z first V 06z seeing the cold further west.

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Here is the central Europe wave > The energy balance is like a see saw > more Northwards push of the jet in Europe will develop the wave more & enhance the westerly push of cold more. ( & less vice versa ) PTB is optimum cold at this stage.

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Note a similar wave in 2009

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Edited by Steve Murr
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2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

ECM another outlier again,so still nowhere closer knowing the eventual outcome is regarding this High.

That's the 3rd mild outlier on the trot from ECM!

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The 06Z GFS continues a similar theme to the 00Z GFS generally keeping High Pressure close/near to the UK for most of its run. Highest of pressure towards the North and North-East of the UK on the whole.

8A9C9028-0994-4469-B493-E0490D65087E.thumb.png.dbdbd90d1b3c61c63104772b91d2d531.pngE9674075-DBD5-4992-A986-FBC730601991.thumb.png.c72a8d2ac42eb7eb6385f28f71d8c78a.png0E2EA41F-C9D9-4053-9327-016EBA4B2FA0.thumb.png.c3b0259592e47e30070052c75966c8dc.pngDA5E4D73-9A14-44CC-9695-71994F81457D.thumb.png.b48d36fe1ce96de84908fe8e272f3ee8.png450D063E-1CE5-4B47-8CC7-B526CA5ECEE8.thumb.png.632c8918352140e53188aa91d891b21c.png4256B812-03FE-4ADC-B424-9BD79B034458.thumb.png.95b15b5535b390bcd1d713acd885de0a.png3032D61A-FC44-45D8-A51E-609D81646B83.thumb.png.0dfba1d1ef43263c99784f2a86b31393.png

Right at the end though there is that monster Low Pressure system lurking to the West of the UK, as shown by General Cluster in a post above.
 

Probably quite a chilly Easterly and North-Easterly at first, particularly around Southern UK, but the flow tending to back more from the South-East as time goes on, so a chance for things to warm up a bit.

There is also some build of High Pressure across the South/South-East of the UK during next few days at times, where it will stay milder and be a bit more settled (still with the odd bit of damp weather), before a more widespread High Pressure system moves in from the Atlantic: 

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NOAA 8 to 14 day 500mb chart keeping heights quite high over the UK and towards Scandinavia.

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Atlantic going for a nice, big, snooze. Definitely be welcoming this. Have become  bored of all the wet weather to be honest.

I do have to agree though, how cold it may get , and how ‘beastly’ any Easterly becomes is not fully certain yet. A little change in the positioning of High Pressure across the UK/Northern-Eastern UK could affect how potent any flow from the East could get. An Easterly with a wintry flavour not unfeasible yet (but maybe unlikely, except possibly the odd flurry or 2 towards the South-East area of the UK).

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