Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.
 Share

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    46 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    This past 24 hours has seen a significant nosedive in upper temps on the ENS as the models amplify the ridge more substantially which digs the down stream troughing further south & West.

    Still some uncertainty as to whether we get the 'true' Easterly however at the very least a blast of -6 to -8c air looks likely...

     

    The form guide says the Easterly won't come off.

    But if it was to manifest, quite often in these instances the situation develops a lot quicker than when first modelled, so that we could be looking at something interesting on our doorstep by as early as wednesday next week.

    But just to emphasise the chances....  IF

     

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    1 hour ago, Timmytour said:

    The form guide says the Easterly won't come off.

    But if it was to manifest, quite often in these instances the situation develops a lot quicker than when first modelled, so that we could be looking at something interesting on our doorstep by as early as wednesday next week.

    But just to emphasise the chances....  IF

     

    Is the word IF big enough?! 

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    Just now, Steve Murr said:

    GFS trends colder still through 144...

    Yer looking decent , here comes the plunge . ?

    EFE0B6B6-7D3C-456B-8A44-3EC2935AE0F4.png

    D2CEF1FE-EEF7-4CFC-8F6F-BC90F82C11D4.png

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    With big segment of pv over Siberian side.

    March does tend to deliver an easterly but jigsaw parts are coming together quick.

    Any further north them heights go could well have a proper cold spell.

    Maybe not months but perhaps a week or two.

    Mind you wait till the ukmo agrees with the GFS.

    Very cold air bottled up in the north its been very cold at the pole and around the Arctic.

    Wonder what the ECM says I reckon it will also go easterly.

     

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Now this is more like it! Bring it on!:yahoo:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    But, about as likely to materialise as this morning's BFTE charts!:oldlaugh:

    • Like 7
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    The latest GEM run is definitely for the spring lovers!! ?

    gem.png

    gem0.png

    gem1.png

    gem2.png

    gem3.png

    gem4.png

    gem5.png

    • Like 8
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    1 hour ago, Zak M said:

    The latest GEM run is definitely for the spring lovers!! ?

    gem.png

    gem0.png

    gem1.png

    gem2.png

    gem3.png

    gem4.png

    gem5.png

    Although the latest ensembles graphs....Will make you shudder...if spring..is your THING.. That's some support for a cold decline!!!!

    MT8_London_ens (14).png

    • Like 8
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Quick comparison of the models at T168, a weeks time:

    image.thumb.jpg.46b6a028bd74c3dd202c46734a7e0287.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.152a2595e539b9267b846fb13a3e32a1.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.dc28e22bae784334fef9077061b23c06.jpg

    Cold air on the GFS and ECM, less so on the GEM.  

    I would say that personally, I'm not looking for snow any more.  Increasingly, my daily view of the weather models is through the prism of the coronavirus outbreak.  What would help us most?  I'm not sure what the science says, but my experience is that people tend to catch less viruses when it is particularly hot or cold, more when wet and middle temperatures, as per Autumn.  But a lot of factors in play including how people interact with each other in different weather conditions.  And on top of that there is government action, of course.  Very difficult times.

    Finally, it does look like the strat might be about to go bang, GFS 12z has this at T210:

    image.thumb.jpg.b75385eb1979fce8f744e0625362cc86.jpg

    So we might want to price in a cold April.

    Edited by Mike Poole
    • Like 6
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Models all in agreement of a major pattern change over the coming days to something we haven't seen for quite some time i.e. high pressure!. By Wednesday next week, major amplification taking place, heights ridging north quite far into the arctic allowing cold air advection to our east and a 'cold high' to anchor itself over the UK, with some cold uppers, colder than anything all season by this time next week. There has been a major short sudden swing today in the reliable.

    Looking forward to some sustained sunny dry weather at least, long long long overdue...

    Edited by damianslaw
    • Like 7
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Story of winter the 18z bucks the trend . No where near as good as previous runs for those cold uppers . ?. All to Far East . GFS 12z first chart 18z second. 

    D759887C-CF5F-4E2E-9EB2-4770C0945981.png

    AFF0E65D-3283-4907-A596-96077AF46373.png

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)

    So we wait all winter for something cold, and we may now get it at the end of March?? You couldn’t make it up.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    Thought I would drop into the model thread for a quick one, just to relieve the stress and tension that we are all currently under! At long last signs of a major pattern change. Just how long as it been since we witnessed nearly - 10 uppers to the UK!! At the very least some very cold nights and dare I say it, a wintry suprise or two before much longer! Regardless of the weather over the next few weeks, I don't think it will change the grave situation we currently are facing!! As always... Take care folks. 

    12_144_thickuk.png

    12_168_thickuk.png

    ECM0-168.gif

    ECM0-192.gif

    birmingham_ecmsd850.png

    london_ecmsd850.png

    giphy.gif

    Yes, but we just have to ride the Corona storm Bud. Would snow and ice be a good thing now though? That's the question.... 

    Edited by Snowfish2
    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    What a fantastic chart if only it was a month or two earlier.

    gfseu-0-270.thumb.png.8d279f621dfc348ee72da7c251f04c20.png

    Unfortunately we only have the dregs of the cold coming our way.

    gfseu-1-270.thumb.png.6c6d2041c0da1b471e3696ac8d68a731.png

     If we can't get a warm high no point in a cold dry one at this time of the year. Never know, might produce a few snow showers/flurries in the south east out of this, and still time for upgrades of course.

    Edited by snowray
    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
    45 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Oh hi Greenland High...you’re 6 weeks late!!

    7615BE07-6ADF-4F6D-B986-9D3AF4C1DAA4.png

    Realistic to.

    some fun and games with the cold surge coming from the east.

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
     Share

    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...