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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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Well I thought I was done chasing winter this year but the last few days I’ve been watching and maybe we’re not done quite yet . Haven’t been able to post many charts like this all winter ?

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Edited by ICE COLD
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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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46 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

This past 24 hours has seen a significant nosedive in upper temps on the ENS as the models amplify the ridge more substantially which digs the down stream troughing further south & West.

Still some uncertainty as to whether we get the 'true' Easterly however at the very least a blast of -6 to -8c air looks likely...

 

The form guide says the Easterly won't come off.

But if it was to manifest, quite often in these instances the situation develops a lot quicker than when first modelled, so that we could be looking at something interesting on our doorstep by as early as wednesday next week.

But just to emphasise the chances....  IF

 

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1 hour ago, Timmytour said:

The form guide says the Easterly won't come off.

But if it was to manifest, quite often in these instances the situation develops a lot quicker than when first modelled, so that we could be looking at something interesting on our doorstep by as early as wednesday next week.

But just to emphasise the chances....  IF

 

Is the word IF big enough?! 

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With big segment of pv over Siberian side.

March does tend to deliver an easterly but jigsaw parts are coming together quick.

Any further north them heights go could well have a proper cold spell.

Maybe not months but perhaps a week or two.

Mind you wait till the ukmo agrees with the GFS.

Very cold air bottled up in the north its been very cold at the pole and around the Arctic.

Wonder what the ECM says I reckon it will also go easterly.

 

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1 hour ago, Zak M said:

The latest GEM run is definitely for the spring lovers!! ?

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Although the latest ensembles graphs....Will make you shudder...if spring..is your THING.. That's some support for a cold decline!!!!

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Quick comparison of the models at T168, a weeks time:

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Cold air on the GFS and ECM, less so on the GEM.  

I would say that personally, I'm not looking for snow any more.  Increasingly, my daily view of the weather models is through the prism of the coronavirus outbreak.  What would help us most?  I'm not sure what the science says, but my experience is that people tend to catch less viruses when it is particularly hot or cold, more when wet and middle temperatures, as per Autumn.  But a lot of factors in play including how people interact with each other in different weather conditions.  And on top of that there is government action, of course.  Very difficult times.

Finally, it does look like the strat might be about to go bang, GFS 12z has this at T210:

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So we might want to price in a cold April.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Models all in agreement of a major pattern change over the coming days to something we haven't seen for quite some time i.e. high pressure!. By Wednesday next week, major amplification taking place, heights ridging north quite far into the arctic allowing cold air advection to our east and a 'cold high' to anchor itself over the UK, with some cold uppers, colder than anything all season by this time next week. There has been a major short sudden swing today in the reliable.

Looking forward to some sustained sunny dry weather at least, long long long overdue...

Edited by damianslaw
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Story of winter the 18z bucks the trend . No where near as good as previous runs for those cold uppers . ?. All to Far East . GFS 12z first chart 18z second. 

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So we wait all winter for something cold, and we may now get it at the end of March?? You couldn’t make it up.

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9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Thought I would drop into the model thread for a quick one, just to relieve the stress and tension that we are all currently under! At long last signs of a major pattern change. Just how long as it been since we witnessed nearly - 10 uppers to the UK!! At the very least some very cold nights and dare I say it, a wintry suprise or two before much longer! Regardless of the weather over the next few weeks, I don't think it will change the grave situation we currently are facing!! As always... Take care folks. 

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Yes, but we just have to ride the Corona storm Bud. Would snow and ice be a good thing now though? That's the question.... 

Edited by Snowfish2
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What a fantastic chart if only it was a month or two earlier.

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Unfortunately we only have the dregs of the cold coming our way.

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 If we can't get a warm high no point in a cold dry one at this time of the year. Never know, might produce a few snow showers/flurries in the south east out of this, and still time for upgrades of course.

Edited by snowray
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