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Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    The latest GFS run is showing high pressure beginning to build in on day 4.

    h500slp.thumb.png.a9b44728b51adace7303f562c534a409.png 916477291_h500slp(1).thumb.png.97ea443ae85467cb2fbc182219054b9c.png 1996504090_h500slp(2).thumb.png.4e30d31d39105d25a5bfeecabe033631.png 54588650_h500slp(3).thumb.png.42382f050ddcbf732d7ab557b15946ae.png

    By the end of March, some settled weather will still be over the majority of the UK, except Scotland. It's showing a north and south split.

    1241612386_h500slp(4).thumb.png.6fb6396a3b4c3042869ff03021d8afcd.png 445952896_h500slp(5).thumb.png.688adeae7c7b33d651b22c515c0a77cc.png 645822297_h500slp(6).thumb.png.4eccb28076d60a3986872292e7291712.png 1121770991_h500slp(7).thumb.png.74523597b78670c840e469b3490a1a97.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Orebro, Sweden
  • Weather Preferences: Summer time: 26-29 degrees and partly cloudy. Winter time: -4 to -7 and sun
  • Location: Orebro, Sweden

    ECM 12Z even colder than this nights run and the high is further north, looking good

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Hello everyone. The world hasn't actually ended yet.  It's awful I know, but I think we just have to carry on.  So to the pub run...

    T240:

    image.thumb.jpg.402dcaa2dfbf824b37c935a15cf7c8ce.jpg

    Well a Scandi high will benefit some of those who have been affected by flooding  beyond that who knows?  

    And T252 in the strat, 

    image.thumb.jpg.42a27786d29095405c73a8440cf0a3aa.jpg

    Decimation....so the strat vortex finally dies? Just when we probably need warmer weather...but no guarantee that hot weather would fix the virus anyway...we just don't know.

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, knocker said:

    May I ask what that actually means?

    A more amplified solution.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    44 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    A more amplified solution.

    image.thumb.png.9ff2380fc1d01ef5a2af53621d32afd7.png

    Certainly looks like a colder few days are increasingly likely. A cold high perhaps - haven't had one of those all winter, the record breaking last high pressure ended up full of muck.

    image.thumb.png.1c5c0be951ff178f8eee2b4680f24a64.pngimage.thumb.png.5dc54278a45ffb349d78ae574130d815.png

    image.thumb.png.0ad17bdd5b92281a7c732bdb103d0be1.pngimage.thumb.png.3365332dc5f924cb1ff688004d2c028c.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The ECM 0z operational is looking increasingly settled during the second half of the run as a big powerful anticyclone builds in over the top of the U.K.?

    CE7FAD18-E772-4A38-8BAF-17B47208B9A3.thumb.png.c8863ef82fba2ad196d3591a20a000ae.png64657AED-F41A-4E94-AB97-B9AE9A63B7D7.thumb.png.5cd8da1ab73a2c011e038108b8df5f6e.png191B25F0-1C56-455A-B9D8-5A49696A78F6.thumb.png.446ebe15e52d3fb14b33fc125d3e2f14.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    A dry spell after about 5 months? won't believe it till it happens lol

    And possibly turning very cold depending where the high decides to settle 

    Edited by SLEETY
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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    Using the 240 hour plus range models (examples from 144 to 216 hours), the 00Z GFS, 00Z GEM and 00Z ECMWF is going for this solution...
     

    00Z GFS

    EED69538-D13A-4D67-AB9E-805BC2202A68.thumb.png.66b536ef1691a75853c2286f338e7613.png5E0AF5E8-7620-4A01-AE1A-4A135E2FB100.thumb.png.f13c9cab982b446b0eb2ece6b84a1dd5.png391F94AC-537B-4F85-A8B5-8F9E174574CD.thumb.png.4bd6c7fda0622c8c5774cf9c2c920112.png4F029877-627F-4764-93A8-7A4641736446.thumb.png.f6ff8784ff290c0157759cac47039fad.png
     

    00Z ECMWF

    9EB6E654-7EE4-44FC-B19F-088A6B6B1E00.thumb.png.90cad72f4df3b5d14c7d3ad5b27f630e.png85326A37-050C-4794-A5D6-AEAB2549166D.thumb.png.70bd3f75ab2042e8c935835dbf6f8bde.pngA6DF467E-A82E-476F-8DC4-6AF95354BFB1.thumb.png.22e25d0bca4b1e8d39511b1442c0baf1.pngB10003B9-9BF9-4BA1-9E3F-F9B6471071B7.thumb.png.7d455242202155fe2eb509f45cd9bba0.png

     

    00Z GEM

    8D999E5F-7A9B-4264-8388-9B4DE80D7959.thumb.png.048543eccf7545b8e8f92e418653846f.pngE9183012-CA6F-490C-88B7-0AFEF17FECC9.thumb.png.ed362b15eb685ff5b061b7086d1b19d3.pngE4E1B23C-9549-4578-9225-3BE8CB5E025F.thumb.png.784cac0a44d20bb8ea3ac3fad9e46137.png50B287D1-37C9-421C-AF01-6A707DF7176F.thumb.png.cbc3a4a9c1d2576f4fda8a1e5ecc45c3.png

    All showing High Pressure and some increased heights building over the UK from the West later next week. While the area High Pressure ends up over isn’t the same on all three models towards 216 hours, at least some good agreement between these 3 operational models for the weather to settle down. The Atlantic getting beat up!

    It’s possible as the High makes a move from the West towards the UK, it could pull in a temporary chillier shot between the North-West and North over the UK. Perhaps with a few odd wintry showers towards the North of the UK before the ridging from the Atlantic becomes in control. 
     

    As some addressed, it seems somewhat unclear exactly where the High may migrate to. Though most operational models above have it staying over the UK (ECMWF). Or going just to the North East towards Scandinavia (GFS), pulling in a cold, and probably mostly dry, Easterly. Consequently, the place the High Pressure goes to affecting how cool or mild it could get. Indeed as Sleety talks of. Though a few flurries would probably move in from the East affecting some Southern and Eastern areas of the UK on that GFS run. 
     

    The 00Z GEFS ensemble mean showing good support for High Pressure to build around the UK area from the West. Examples again between 144 to 216 hours:

    D13C979C-6125-48C8-BFF9-9D5BBC8C72AF.thumb.png.476da35cd7bb0ece650cf31dc37a9d1f.pngE9C50FDB-F11C-41E0-A1F8-785C4915766C.thumb.png.b08fa60f287a7be35d85c24a64eaf693.pngAB7A4D76-3FAE-4DA3-9605-2990797C7D4C.thumb.png.47138ff73a3a92ad44d5a8d9206b94c6.pngB24B792B-DA6F-4909-8D9D-8F5A89A66321.thumb.png.0e64996a6158c37d4b5043e0545f1298.png

    And then the possibility of the High moving more towards Eastern UK.
     

    While there is good support, the High Pressure that the models illustrate coming in from the West to come in at a high enough latitude, as it escapes from Newfoundland and find its home over the UK:

    16956024-F943-4EBC-AE93-2BDE99E8C36D.thumb.jpeg.10b5a76cad7792d9d078bacca237bbdc.jpeg

    An outlook that some of us I feel are really longing for. But whether something cold or wintry, or something less cool or milder, depending on individual preferences. A game of cat and mouse it’s felt like the last few months hunting down some of our desired weather types! 
    7110690E-A7B6-4ABC-88AE-46E079E75FBC.thumb.jpeg.84be582bb73f7552654120c2625c70bb.jpeg53916B50-830B-429C-BEB2-5669E76322A3.thumb.jpeg.0d536ea5ffb9a147bb22018aa51d91d8.jpeg

    Edited by DiagonalRedLine
    Correcting further typos
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Good morning, peeps.

    It looks like a shortish warmer spell early next week will give-way to a rather more indeterminate period of, still mainly anticyclonic conditions:

    T+129:   h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    But, any attempt at predicting details (especially temperature-wise) looks to be rather futile, what with bits of tPV remnants still floating about:?

    T+384:   h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Cold end to march perhaps cold Easter to.

    The ECM has moved more inline with GFS.

    2009/2010 we see an Azores high set up over the UK then pulled northeast bringing and easterly.

    I wouldn't bank on a warm up just yet.

    But a drying out of UK looks likely.

    But wintry weather is still possible down the east coast and southern areas.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Day 10 (it's always Day 10!) would come as a shock to the system!:cold:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Yay here comes the BFTE again in March, minus 12 hpa into SE and probable snow flurries, March the New winter month! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

    Day 10 (it's always Day 10!) would come as a shock to the system!:cold:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Its a stonker, people saying summer better for the virus but would a chart like that keep people in their own homes and help?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    @General Cluster Also guessing while there wouldn't be widespread snow - Checklist in those type of situations, is 500mb heights - need low - they are relatively high so not huge towering cumulonimbus activity, and surface pressure - also high - needs to be lower but however, i would expect you might see a few grains of snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Its a stonker, people saying summer better for the virus but would a chart like that keep people in their own homes and help?

    This just keeps getting better...Shame I got the wrong day, though!:shok:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Clusters are quite interesting..

    Day 10 has good scandi heights on 44/51 members. Possible easterly? Depends how it lines up - wild model swings at the moment between not much and a biting cold easterly.

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020031300_240.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Clusters are quite interesting..

    Day 10 has good scandi heights on 44/51 members. Possible easterly? Depends how it lines up - wild model swings at the moment between not much and a biting cold easterly.

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020031300_240.

    Cluster 3 the best - genuinely cold, snow for the SE - 2 also cold but dryer.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    18 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    This just keeps getting better...Shame I got the wrong day, though!:shok:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    cant see the attraction myself.... a stiff cold dry easterly.. no precip so no snow

     

    nosnow.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    South East England these are for - pretty decent for late March.

    image.thumb.png.3dd08638cf14886817095e1a857be500.png

    EPS have taken a nosedive as well overnight.

    image.thumb.png.5b02ad7cf79f8f7b96ad586780aec682.png

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Well I thought I was done chasing winter this year but the last few days I’ve been watching and maybe we’re not done quite yet . Haven’t been able to post many charts like this all winter ?

    7D011CCB-66C6-47BC-8071-227949444E0C.png

    7FEE121D-3651-422D-99BF-E81DE80ED9DA.png

    89587C59-5591-485E-B517-28D082C70757.png

    725C5DA2-F25C-4BD7-BA36-2788536C6CDE.png

    Edited by ICE COLD
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