Model output discussion 02/02/20

[feb1991blizzard]

GFS looking good at 144 but i cannot imagine now the EPS are mild that it will trump nearly all 50 members at such short range.

[feb1991blizzard]

WOW! wasn't expecting this.

EPS still say no thoug.

[Frosty.]

On 08/03/2020 at 07:28, JON SNOW said:

All I can / will say about the ECM 0z operational is...roll on day 10!!

Another lovely day 10..roll on..fingers crossed!

 

[Methuselah]

Blimey...The GFS 00Z does turn pretty grim-looking. But, at least it's dry and grim --- which would be a welcome change in itself!

    

If only the cold air would bugger off!

[mb018538]

ECM clusters suggesting high pressure is in no way a done deal yet:



That middle cluster looks particularly bad, with more wind and rain. We really need a drying out spell without any more rain!

[Methuselah]

06Z not at all bad at T+237: sunshine and temps into the teens; though, as the 00Z showed, all very dependent on the presence/absence of cold surface-air on the nearby continent...?

    

[Methuselah]

And a quick shufty into the GEFS ensembles, suggests two things: a sustained rise in SLP and an upcoming drying-out spell, post circa March 16...And about time too!

    

    

The only downside being that 2m temps don't look as warm as I'd like...

[mhielte]

2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Blimey...The GFS 00Z does turn pretty grim-looking. But, at least it's dry and grim --- which would be a welcome change in itself!

    

If only the cold air would bugger off!

Light-ish winds and a strengthening sun - wouldn't be too bad despite underwhelming 850s.

[Methuselah]

Scandinavian HP looks well-placed, at T+219 (GFS 12Z) -- but never rule-out winter going out with a nip. Cold continental air is never all that far away!

    

[lassie23]

2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Scandinavian HP looks well-placed, at T+219 (GFS 12Z) -- but never rule-out winter going out with a nip. Cold continental air is never all that far away!

    

Snowy end to Smarch and beginning of spring?

[SLEETY]

All that cold air around but somehow it  mostly misses us according to the latest gfs run in the latter stages. 

Frustrating, but this is the gfs so chances of it verifying like it's showing is probably around zero percent, thankfully. 

 

[Zak M]

Absolutely loving the latest GFS run!

[SMU]

UKMO & lots of GFS ENS very cold day 6 onwards -!!

[feb1991blizzard]

Just shows you the myth about spring not being able to deliver, look how far South the cold gets on the GFS 12z op run in late March, of course that would struggle to reach us on that run even if it went to 450, but the fact that its there means if there was an atlantic trigger, the North sea wouldn't moderate it that much at this time of the year, that would still be a potentially snowy Easterly setting up with a trigger there.

[mushymanrob]

56 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Absolutely loving the latest GFS run!

 

 

Hmmm .... not so sure. Any Easterly at this time of the year usually brings low grey stratus, and its chilly if not raw.
There would be an East/West split, with the far west getting the lions share of the sunshine and that would be warm. But most eastern counties wouldnt fare very well off those charts.

[Snowyowl9]

The coldest night of the winter.

 

[Frostbite1980]

21 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

The coldest night of the winter.

 

No where near, of spring yes

Edited March 9, 2020 by Frostbite1980

[Zak M]

It might get a bit concerning for parts of Wales and NW England later on.

The GFS has all the rain sticking in the same areas for now > tomorrow morning.

Certainly not good for the parts of Wales that have been experiencing flooding recently and all the saturated ground located elsewhere.

  

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z follows the trend towards high pressure at T240:

There is a change coming, not sure what exactly will happen, but the strat vortex is giving up the ghost it seems GFS T384:

Trends definitely downward in terms of the zonal winds in the strat, from this mornings 0z GEFS runs:

But, of course, much more important things are going on than the stratosphere.  I wish this wasn't the case.

 

[Earthshine]

48 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

No where near, of spring yes

Spring starts on the 20th March so just about made it!

[stodge]

2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO & lots of GFS ENS very cold day 6 onwards -!!

Yes, Steve, so much depends on the positioning and orientation of the Scandinavian HP.

If we get it right, there's plenty of cold air to call on but it's equally possible we'll see more of a mid latitude feature drawing in warmer air.

The signal for a break in the Atlantic dominated mobile westerlies becoming more apparent from next week onward.

[feb1991blizzard]

Here she comes!!

 

[snowray]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here she comes!!

 

Yup...I thing that the pub run is taking the proverbial again, looks like a chart for late January not the last week of March.

Not sure why I'm bothering to post the charts really, not an outlier though, it does have some support on the 18z ens .

 

Edited March 10, 2020 by snowray

[SLEETY]

Winter going to start in spring again? 

What a surprise, not! 

Bitter air makes it across this time, unlike the 12 z run. 

Let's hope this is still showing in the morning runs 

[feb1991blizzard]

We would be salivating at this chart in early Jan as a 384 mean.