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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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23 hours ago, shaky said:

Quite literally!!finally some adventurous weather to talk about!!!been such a lame winter so far!!one of the worst if not the worse winter ever in my lifetime!! Not had a single flake of snow!!could change next week!!3 or 4 cold days and nights coming up this week as a starter!!

I think models showing 100mph winds is more then adventurous, more like worrying.

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2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Depending on where this low tracks could bring some really good snow on its Northern edges.

No disrespect but snow would be the least of our worries I think most people will be

Keeping an eye on there property.

That is one scary storm been modeled currently and one I really don't want to experience. 

C.S

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Those gusts are 'worst case scenario', i.e. the strongest possible gusts in that particular modelled setup.  So they are very unlikely to verify, if they did they would be very isolated and probably associated with strong convective downbursts.

HOWEVER... if 120mph was being modelled then even a 20% reduction in actual speeds would be very damaging!

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1 minute ago, radiohead said:

Yes 10m 1 hour gusts.

Going to be havoc for any mode of transport ,. Expecting to see some severe severed pathing for traffic of all kinds 

and into the hills and mountains ,. And through the valleys .. the air could really be squeezed to become quite deadly 

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6 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

No disrespect but snow would be the least of our worries I think most people will be

Keeping an eye on there property.

That is one scary storm been modeled currently and one I really don't want to experience. 

C.S

Irrelevant, the risk of a large snowfall with large drifts is there and should be discussed just as the risk of the wind and rain.

What you want is irrelevant to what is shown and discussed,  

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

gfseu-0-150.png?12gfseu-0-156.png?6

Low is missing so far on the 12z

And just like that what i posted earlier has happened!!no low now!!as if by magic just disappeared!!!not to say it wont be back on the 18z!!its there on the ukmo but maybe furthet south and west compared to the earlier gfs 06z!

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

And just like that what i posted earlier has happened!!no low now!!as if by magic just disappeared!!!not to say it wont be back on the 18z!!its there on the ukmo but maybe furthet south and west compared to the earlier gfs 06z!

As above the UKM develops it and the Icon also develops it. 

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

As above the UKM develops it and the Icon also develops it. 

Yup it does but seems maybe further south and west on ukmo compared to 06gfs!!might slide or take the strongest winds further south!!its not surprised me the gfs has dropped the low i had a feeling it was gona happen!!happened plenty of times over the years in a similar situation!!like i sed it could come back on the 18z so we not out of danger just yet!!a very cold and snow showery north wester before that though!

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Just now, shaky said:

Yup it does but seems maybe further south and west on ukmo compared to 06gfs!!might slide or take the strongest winds further south!!its not surprised me the gfs has dropped the low i had a feeling it was gona happen!!happened plenty of times over the years in a similar situation!!like i sed it could come back on the 18z so we not out of danger just yet!!a very cold and snow showery north wester before that though!

Indeed and at least its something to talk about LOL

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10 minutes ago, radiohead said:

UKMO develops the low just as the GFS drops it...

UW144-21_fat2.GIF

The Gfs hasn't dropped the low at all its in a different position and a different intensity at that time frame compared with previous updates that's all. 

270131826_EUROPE_PRMSL_168(6).thumb.jpg.a1d6383799bd13cbe869e820e4ea1417.jpg

1632301006_EUROPE_PRMSL_180(7).thumb.jpg.8b57ee8f3074c7a145961d79f9c5b853.jpg

1205156990_EUROPE_PRMSL_GUST_192(1).thumb.jpg.34c8057b4ab449a3e9e4b72e1f4b8ba4.jpg

Edited by jordan smith
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8 minutes ago, radiohead said:

UKMO develops the low just as the GFS drops it...

UW144-21_fat2.GIF

The thing is, the UKMO is usually very understated with Atlantic lows until nearer T0, and yet is has a 950mb low just north of Scotland. 

It's probably not worth overanalysing the wind strengths until we get to T96 or even T72, but the UKMO has all the ingredients for a late-developing storm between T120 and T144

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So now the ICON blows the low up to galactic proportions from nothing on the previous run and GFS does the opposite! 

GFS T144:

image.thumb.jpg.8b58b2e0d42c7957913d8fe47710b814.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.e6dc5a6a2da96ea435e8418278bc7462.jpg

Maybe no wonder the cold air is being consistently modelled towards us as it is steered by the difference over not many miles by a difference in pressure between 940 and 1035 mbar!  

UKMO similar re the direction of cold air, but this run does definitely have the troublesome low, here again T144:

image.thumb.jpg.4829d34a99b9decc95355c328cead7b5.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.71af397258f80bd718a13f62f98311d7.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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25 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

Those gusts are 'worst case scenario', i.e. the strongest possible gusts in that particular modelled setup.  So they are very unlikely to verify, if they did they would be very isolated and probably associated with strong convective downbursts.

HOWEVER... if 120mph was being modelled then even a 20% reduction in actual speeds would be very damaging!

36% less damaging, wind drag proportional to square of velocity.

Edited by Interitus
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Hi folks

Regarding any potential storminess; if you're concerned about wind gusts/speeds in your area and you would like to ask questions/discuss the potential, please head over to The North Atlantic Storms thread

There's no issue with posting charts/discussing the output in here, it's more aimed at those who wish to discuss their aggrievances about losing a fence or roof etc.

Cheers! ?

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7 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

The Gfs hasn't dropped the low at all its in a different position and a different intensity at that time frame compared with previous updates that's all. 

270131826_EUROPE_PRMSL_168(6).thumb.jpg.a1d6383799bd13cbe869e820e4ea1417.jpg

1632301006_EUROPE_PRMSL_180(7).thumb.jpg.8b57ee8f3074c7a145961d79f9c5b853.jpg

1205156990_EUROPE_PRMSL_GUST_192(1).thumb.jpg.34c8057b4ab449a3e9e4b72e1f4b8ba4.jpg

Its a bit like Triggers broom. Several new handles and several new heads buts its the same broom.

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