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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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IMO, the pattern-change hinted at by the GFS 06Z operational looks rather like 'random' noise to me:

prmslBedfordshire.png    t850Bedfordshire.png

prcpBedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

So, as suggested in the post I prepared earlier, I'll just wait and see what happens!:oldgrin:

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I am not sure what is the mechanism for the last few runs of the GFS op to keep showing the presence of a Siberian High in the longer term, but its there. I can only assume that the model is incurring some sort of correction in the transport of air masses into (WAA) or southward out of the Arctic (CAA) as obviously the cold cannot remain bottled up for ever. Whether the present run of westerlies give way to easterlies cannot yet be determined and if its does so, complications always seem to occur down the line.  Lets hope the trend in shown in consequent runs. We need a break from this rotten winter to deliver something at least , remotely cold.

C

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50 minutes ago, Singularity said:

GFS 06z probably ‘circumstantial’, but it does show how occasionally, a strongly Atlantic-dominated period suddenly gives way to an easterly flow across the UK.

Basically, one of the very large, deep troughs drives a huge surge of warm air advection right into the high Arctic, which breaks anticyclonically and builds high pressure N or NE of the UK.

 

Sorry nut which part of the 0600 run are you discussing here?

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But apart from the fact it's a struggle to get model agreement at day five at the moment, let alone out in the wilderness,, if this is the trough disruption being discussed I'm still struggling to locate the easterly flow across the UK

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-1746400.thumb.png.2e7c966a79ad2bb1b4e9c5848586f372.pnggfs-deterministic-nhemi-z300_speed-1940800.thumb.png.564196889477c2d55c3c9f5a9625461e.png

index.thumb.png.df028f4d9513896833d3a67ccd9af950.png336.thumb.png.ead1cdc2da483c6e3dddc1837dabb152.png370.thumb.png.1916db166ca9eaf44a65db99d3a3ec83.png

 

Edited by knocker
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2 minutes ago, knocker said:

But apart from the fact it's a struggle to get model agreement at day five at the moment, let alone out in the wilderness,, if this is the trough disruption being discussed I'm still struggling to locate the easterly flow across the UK

 

No easterly flow over the UK on the 06z. The Siberian High brings it to Europe late in la la land, but really just jackanory at this range:

1944802122_gfsnh-0-384(2).thumb.png.c5bf0cf6e304fa917ed5c066102d4bbf.png

As you say, lots of non-agreement cross and inter-model ATM so no point looking beyond D10 for clarity, maybe just for interest, until the models get a grip. PNA going negative which GFS nailed a while back:

PNA>pna.sprd2.thumb.gif.b6b6b6b4e349472a5b5f7a181fbe5ebc.gifGEFS 2m temps>   graphe6_1000_309_153___.thumb.png.5a1e6e33d4187c678d91e64cdbd1b6a3.png

That may be interesting once the tPV loses some of its oomph, if it lasts that long, ditto the sPV displacement. Otherwise those looking for cold down south, tell me when you find it^^^

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New model thread was supposed to get rid of this dangerous looking storm in 10 days, not re-enforce it!!! Disappointed in the moderators and admins allowing this to continue! ?

 

AC7294ED-E0A5-4676-B12B-1D088C6CD0F6.jpeg

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1 hour ago, knocker said:

Sorry nut which part of the 0600 run are you discussing here?

Hi Knocker, I'm referring to the general evolution of the westward extension of the Siberian High.

Admittedly it doesn't quite reach the UK during the run, so I should have specified that to be clear - my bad!

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GFS 12z with another insane northwesterly draw, the extent of it is extraordinary, here T192:

image.thumb.jpg.8ed9d30212c11a819e01c237986a8a7a.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.8b6a5b139a3129047af99e8ce2751c1f.jpg

I don't have confidence even with -6 uppers encroaching that many low level areas will see snow, but those with elevation in the north may well do.

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12z ditches the monster high (no shock there), but does show sings of the PV relaxing from the middle of the month.

Not a surprise - +5 sig AO events don't last for long. Sharp drop back towards zero as we head on towards and past mid Feb.

image.thumb.png.c0c7877cc8d0f7910a6e820601f18671.pngimage.thumb.png.dfa0c9b76747609462498a13de69afc9.png <---Huge Aluetian high there!

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One final thought on the GFS 12z, here is precipitation and wind gusts at T186:

image.thumb.jpg.bad9e89eff3e3e562405d2766adb7bd0.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.075320b5570034da891d03597afd8843.jpg

Now I've already said I'm not comfortable with this system having uppers cold enough for snow at low levels, and the GFS snow precipitation charts are an approximation to put it mildly, but for those who haven't seen a snowflake this winter, and I am one such, a week Monday early in the morning, might be worth a look, in a very windy rather cold weather pattern. 

This broad pattern does seem likely to verify in some sense, so it will be possible of course as it gets closer, to use the higher resolution models to get a better idea of impacts...

Edited by Mike Poole
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EC is hideous, the PV continues to dominate northerly latitudes.I honestly didn't think Feb could be any worse than the Dec and Jan coldies have endured but ....

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just for fun,but models have been shifting ever so slightly westwards with that next week plunge which puts my location in eastern Slovakia in shout with pehaps the coldest snap of winter so far ?

vapWgrQ62z.gif

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ECM T192 - T240:

image.thumb.jpg.4f57e3dc6b2ae248293f6b4ff19b853c.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.47421c45b90c97475e853cea83115e80.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.73fee1a02710e1e0cf07e97b8feb42c0.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ba14866a9fa168fd97bc5ab02dbcdd2b.jpg

WOW the size of the cyclonic circulation at T192, the wave in the flow at T216 with UK avoidance,  and it is full on again T240.  And the cold air is on the ship, but it is over warm waters...

image.thumb.jpg.e203808e5b955b9ebaef2ba67d19173f.jpg

Just another variant given the uncertainty at this range.  

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2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

12z ditches the monster high (no shock there), but does show sings of the PV relaxing from the middle of the month.

Not a surprise - +5 sig AO events don't last for long. Sharp drop back towards zero as we head on towards and past mid Feb.

image.thumb.png.c0c7877cc8d0f7910a6e820601f18671.pngimage.thumb.png.dfa0c9b76747609462498a13de69afc9.png <---Huge Aluetian high there!

The +5 AO index lasted for some time, it was virtually that positive for the whole of the first half of January.  After a full fortnight at that level, it became less positive in the second half of the month; that highly positive AO index resulted in the CET's third warmest January in the last 30 years, and the first "notably warm January" (CET 6*C+) since 2008.

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Signs of the jet slowly sinking South in the weeks ahead,perhaps also worth keeping an eye on the Arctic High,which startied to look promising on gfs before low-res kicked in.

Can winter go out with a bang.

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