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Model output discussion 02/02/20

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted
2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

“As the days grow longer the cold grows stronger” certainly true of the ECM this morning.

 

 

Imagine if it were actually winter!

The temperatures at ground level look similar to a polar northwesterly in January. Just shows what lengths we have to go to to get cold this late in March.

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

ECM clusters:

image.thumb.png.8c3edf104662ca89880580a417a3275e.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020032400_192.image.thumb.png.fbbbefea278a5c5967f532c166cac68e.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020032400_300.image.thumb.png.5c011706462b7ce19f6e7cf56e01401d.png

Looking blocked up until around day 10. By day 12-15 the ensembles are starting to sniff out a bit more low pressure influence, but this is far and away at the moment. For what it's worth, tthe GFS ensembles are similar with the mean SLP dropping to 1010mb around the same time-frame. One to watch.

image.thumb.png.36821ac8e28abdcb5f7898584b9da63f.png

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
3 hours ago, shaky said:

Just took a look at ukmo and its pushed everything south and east!!even the ecm has slightly!!as you say for me the only hope is gfs sticks to its guns!!i guess the good thing is it will be much drier!!

That concerns me slightly, especially with it being the UKMO backing off.

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
1 minute ago, Don said:

That concerns me slightly, especially with it being the UKMO backing off.

But then again the ukmo was further east on yesterdays 00z run but then backed west slightly on the 12z so lets hope its does the same today!!

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B87 Experienced

B87

Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
Posted

Looking very wintry at the weekend here with highs of 8-10c forecast.

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