Model output discussion 02/02/20

[stodge]

Afternoon all

The UKM 12Z has raised some eyebrows:

With 850s of -8 to -12 it will certainly be very chilly especially the further south and east.

GFS 12Z OP at the same time:

Both following the ECM 00Z OP this morning. Interestingly, the ECM kept heights to the west and north west even as the HP itself declined while the GFS migrates the heights more due north of the British Isles keeping a chilly but dry ESE'ly flow in place.

[ITSY]

18 minutes ago, stodge said:

Afternoon all

The UKM 12Z has raised some eyebrows:

With 850s of -8 to -12 it will certainly be very chilly especially the further south and east.

GFS 12Z OP at the same time:

Both following the ECM 00Z OP this morning. Interestingly, the ECM kept heights to the west and north west even as the HP itself declined while the GFS migrates the heights more due north of the British Isles keeping a chilly but dry ESE'ly flow in place.

Both show possible snow events for the SE quarter - albeit March/April sun likely to mitigate impacts

[stodge]

5 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Both show possible snow events for the SE quarter - albeit March/April sun likely to mitigate impacts

I suspect not - UKMO has the SE at 1040 MB - GFS at 1025 MB - so any precipitation is going to be very light. 

GEM follows the trend though the Atlantic HP is being flattened at T+144 and is ridging east across Northern Britain - still a chilly air mass with -8 850s for most.

[Don]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Very cold ukmo 12 run minus 12hpa for some areas,why is this never in the winter months,so frustrating.

Metoffice are still not mentioning anything particularly cold in their outlook, though?

[NewEra21]

 

gfs still with considerably more colder runs, with the op on the milder side of things

[ICE COLD]

ECM looking pretty cold . Here’s T120 to T168 . 

 

And T192 still -9 850s across a swathe of the country . 

Edited March 23, 2020 by ICE COLD

[Dancerwithwings]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Metoffice are still not mentioning anything particularly cold in their outlook, though?

BBC graphics are showing some promise for Sunday 

[Gowon]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Metoffice are still not mentioning anything particularly cold in their outlook, though?

They mentioned it on the BBC news weather.

My favourite is the JMA.. It's a snow making machine.

[Gowon]

On 19/03/2020 at 12:11, feb1991blizzard said:

On 19/03/2020 at 13:24, D.V.R said:

Yeah, right!! 

 

But if it was really bitter with heavy snow though, it might stop people going out and infecting other people.

You might have the last laugh, mate..lol

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Metoffice are still not mentioning anything particularly cold in their outlook, though?

They’re expecting more influence from the blocking high as per their model output rather than ECM.

[ICE COLD]

The ECM Day 10 looks interesting too if it went a few days further on a stonking Northerly looks on the cards ?? 

[shaky]

13 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

They mentioned it on the BBC news weather.

My favourite is the JMA.. It's a snow making machine.

Absolute beauty!!!!if the gfs ensembles are anything to go by including the control run then might see further upgrades by the 00zs!!

[Griff]

12 minutes ago, shaky said:

Absolute beauty!!!!if the gfs ensembles are anything to go by including the control run then might see further upgrades by the 00zs!!

Or curse of the commentator and were all back to talking about raging pv, zonality, and miserable westerlies, come the morning...  

[feb1991blizzard]

3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

People are overlooking how intense that high is on UKMO. Crikey that is intense

Yes, wished it was centred over Greenland.

[Gowon]

5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Absolute beauty!!!!if the gfs ensembles are anything to go by including the control run then might see further upgrades by the 00zs!!

Yup.. Just imagine all the untrampled snow fields should the lockdown goes ahead  

( sorry, I can get a bit protective about my snow-covered paths and fields which makes me want to beat people up.. Luckily, I've calmed down quite a bit nowadays though ) 

[Allseasons-Si]

Evening

there is some impressive cold showing in the models for next weekend>

we would be drooling of these synoptic charts if it was the heart of winter but as we know March can pack a punch

day ten means of the gefs/ecm

the ecm is better with with more of a block in the Atlantic

ecm ens are colder than this mornings

12z v's 00z.

 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening! As the country goes in lock down,  the weather goes in upgrade for winter lovers, feeling bitter in the winds , sleet and snow look likely this coming weekend. ...Grim weather for this time of year. ...Enjoy the next few sunny mild days ,!!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Well if those ECM charts come to fruition, and we end up with some of the white stuff thrown in for good measure, I only hope and prey Prime Minister Borris allows us out for a wee bit of sledging... Wishful thinking I know!! Oh and let's not forget, only in groups of two.. No gatherings allowed obviously.... Jeess, this is one hell of a strange year. 

Edited March 23, 2020 by Mattwolves

[Don]

5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

People are overlooking how intense that high is on UKMO. Crikey that is intense

Very round, too.....

[Don]

1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Well if those ECM charts come to fruition, and we end up with some of the white stuff thrown in for good measure, I only hope and prey Prime Minister Borris allows us out for a wee bit of sledging... Wishful thinking I know!! Oh and let's not forget, only in groups of two.. No gatherings allowed obviously.... Jeess, this is one hell of a strange year. 

 

Well, I suppose you could class sledging as exercise?! 

Edited March 23, 2020 by Don

[shaky]

Very cold 18z up to 192 hours!!colder than 12z!!surely snow showers from the north sea between 120 and 168 hours!!better late than never lol!!

[Mike Poole]

Well I don't think we are going to need any guidance from the GFS or ECM as to what the weather will bring over the next 3 weeks, this  is all it is:

Be safe, and get your own weather in your homes to be as you want it.

[Zak M]

I have never said this before - but who wants some late March snow?

      

[feb1991blizzard]

Any snow probably not a huge dumping so i will refrain from saying a stonker full stop, very decent under any circumstances and a stonker for this late in season.

Based on GEFS mean that is.

Edited March 23, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[syed2878]

On 06/03/2020 at 21:01, Don said:

Whilst I largely agree with this, as I mentioned in my previous post, some parts experienced significant snowfalls last year without a deep cold source and it hung around for 3/4 days, so all is not lost just yet!  However, as the years tick by, snow sadly will become a rarer event for this country and winter holidays to Canada will be required for those of us who need a snow fix!