Model output discussion 02/02/20

[SMU]

The current output from the UKMO reminds me of 15 years ago Feb 27th.

I lived in Eltham then > The temp at 2pm was just below -1c

-13c Uppers & a biting N.Easterly but settled. Snow flurries in Kent.

[johnholmes]

This would have had a pretty decent cold spell in the winter months!

[snowray]

42 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Deep cold air now over the village. Temp at 22.00 hrs -14c with increasing snow flurries and some blowing snow. Rather nice to watch.

C

I remember going skying in March in Austria back in the mid 90's, and it snowed and snowed, one night about 2 foot came down, amazing. But the owners of the hotel were complaining about it, it turns out that it was the most snowless/mild ski season in living memory, and now that the season was about to finish they were getting all this lovely snow...they were not happy. I loved it..

Anyway, even the JMA is joining the party....

 

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

This at just day 6

are the meto going to change there text forecast tomorrow?

[Allseasons-Si]

41 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

This would have had a pretty decent cold spell in the winter months!

Even the extended shows the same

whilst we have hp cell to NW,it will be cool/cold with winds from the NE/E

great synoptic's today but will it deliver,there is every chance at this time of the year thanks to the SSW happening right now but lets get this cold plunge out of the way to something more springlike afterwords

don't get me wrong as i would love it to happen and it probably would but we need them vitamin d's right now to smash this virus to kingdom come

my cold is receding now and just looks like that with just the odd cough thankfully,it was a twitchy time for me as i thought it was CV,maybe i did have it with a slight fever at first but i am on the mend now,maybe i had a mild dose of it but i wouldn't know without being tested,i have stayed away from media and the thread associated with it as it gave me anxiety attacks,probably due to being worried or scared of it

anyway,not to steer off topic and i would love to see snow settling this winter,(oh! wait a minute),spring and we have more chance of that happening at present

stay safe all  in these hard times

the human is a fighter,the virus isn't.

night. 

 

[snowray]

GFS ens mean even colder for London on the 18z at around -8c, further north it's closer to -9c/ -10c. The op is actually one of the mildest runs.

 

[snowray]

18z control run, bitterly cold if it was to verify, maybe close to an ice day in places with snow and a harsh frost to follow. Think I'll leave planting any veg in the garden a while longer.

Not an easy time for us at the moment I know, and the last thing the country needs is this sort of cold weather when things should be warming up, but the weather will do what it wants of course. Just a month or so ago if charts like these had turned up the thread would have been humming, but it's all a bit too late now and people have more important things on their minds with the current situation.

Take good care of yourselves everyone, it's likely going to get worse with this dreaded virus before it gets better but at least we can still come on here and that helps to keep our minds off it for a while anyway.

Edited March 22, 2020 by snowray

[Kentspur]

Even the ever reliable CFS has gone full beast mode with frequent minus 10-11c upper air temps even through the first week of April!

[Rocheydub]

a wee question 

is flight data an issue here?

[Philbill]

Can I point out that cold weather will stop the transfer of the virus quite significantly.

Hopefully the hospitals will not have so many flu cases as well so an incoming cold snap should be a good thing

[Kentspur]

29th March is the peak of the coldest uppers according to latest 0z Icon run before a mixing out with less of a N of East component to the wind after 

Edited March 23, 2020 by Kentspur

[Kentspur]

Very cold UKMO with Minus 10c uppers about to sweep Southwards 

[snowsummer]

3 hours ago, Philbill said:

Can I point out that cold weather will stop the transfer of the virus quite significantly.

Hopefully the hospitals will not have so many flu cases as well so an incoming cold snap should be a good thing

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with the weather and leave all else out of it? Its going to be a long 12 weeks as it is

[Sleet30031972]

3 hours ago, snowsummer said:

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with the weather and leave all else out of it? Its going to be a long 12 weeks as it is

Quite right! I’m sick to death of peoples sanctimonious rubbish about flipping Covid. Nowt to do with me, nowt to do with the sodding weather. . 

[The PIT]

Classic winter charts now we are in spring which is fairly typical.

[mb018538]

Runs this morning not quite as cold as last night, but still probably some of the coldest of the winter/early spring as a whole.

GFS and ECM mean is down to around -6 to -8c:



Still a chance of snow down to lower levels for a time in a week or so.

[claret047]

7 hours ago, Rocheydub said:

a wee question 

is flight data an issue here?

Hello Rocheydub,

I doubt it judging by the number of aircraft still flying.

Please click onto the link below to give you an idea.

Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map | Flightradar24

WWW.FLIGHTRADAR24.COM

---

The world’s most popular flight tracker. Track planes in real-time on our flight tracker map and get up-to-date flight status & airport information.

If you wish to see other areas worldwide click on an aircraft and then click on either the departure or arrival location to see the amount of traffic in that area.

It is fascinating to observe the diverse destinations.

Kind Regards

Dave

[SLEETY]

1 hour ago, The PIT said:

Classic winter charts now we are in spring which is fairly typical.

Yeah not a surprise anymore.

Happens a lot recently,some very cold air from the weekend onwards.

At least if we get snow it will rapidly melt in the daytime now,and not cause too much trouble to add to all the problems.

 

Obviously if things were normal you would want inches of the stuff to fall at night so it would take much longer to melt.

[snowray]

The cold snap does not look all that severe on this mornings 06z run, we have HP then establishing itself over the country so things warming up somewhat in early April, should be some pleasant sunny days at least with temps into the low teens I would expect in many areas.

 

[Methuselah]

A wee bit of everything in today's GFS 06Z:

Next weekend looks ghastly: 

But it then gets better:            

The end? Who knows!            

And now it's time I moseyed on down to Iceland, in the vain hope that the marauding hordes of brain-eating zombies have left me any food for tomorrow!

[ICE COLD]

If this cold spell/snap comes off, there still the question of its duration and looking at the 6z GEFS it’s all on the table . Some quite cold looking runs in there for the end of March .

[SLEETY]

Very cold ukmo 12 run minus 12hpa for some areas,why is this never in the winter months,so frustrating.

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Very cold ukmo 12 run minus 12hpa for some areas,why is this never in the winter months,so frustrating.

I know, don't it make you sick!

[Man With Beard]

Here's the UKMO for Sunday. Cold enough for snow anywhere, the only issue is getting precipitation, which depends if a front gets into the flow:

Possibilities of a Thames Streamer and SE coast snow flurries though. Probably dry north/west. Other areas will have to wait and see.

 

[Weather-history]

People are overlooking how intense that high is on UKMO. Crikey that is intense