Model output discussion 02/02/20

[snowray]

2 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Just what the Country doesn't want at the moment our NHS are under enough pressure without all the issues a cold snap could bring.

C.S

Indeed. In fact Italy getting a cold blast when things should be warming up down there, and then Its our turn and much of northern Europe. Not good.

 

[Snowyowl9]

A cold Nly now showing up.

[carinthian]

Fascinating watch the temp drop today over here. Started at 1c at 0500 and was down to -9c at 1700hrs. Forecast cold advection spot on at 850mb level ( that's about the height of the village at 5000feet absl) Forecast  chart tomorrow even colder.

C

[martycole]

16 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Just what the Country doesn't want at the moment our NHS are under enough pressure without all the issues a cold snap could bring.

C.S

True, but on the other hand less people are likely to want to go out?

[NewEra21]

As has been mentioned already, a few runs touching around the -10 850s mark now. 

 

The Op was quite a mild outlier in the mid to long term too. Looking like a chilly/cold snap is firming up now.

Edited March 22, 2020 by NewEra21

[SMU]

[Beanz]

52 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Just what the Country doesn't want at the moment our NHS are under enough pressure without all the issues a cold snap could bring.

C.S

Yes, this is dreadful model watching at a time we really really don’t need it.  Great had it been December/January - but please not now with all that’s going on

[snowray]

More 

 

[Tim Bland]

Cold ECM from day 5. Rain band turning snow as it slips south next weekend followed by a raw NE flow and snow showers 

[shaky]

11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Is that ukmo or ecm?if its ukmo how does ecm look at 144 hours steve?

[ICE COLD]

Well looks like the Gem was onto something. ECM going for it

[snowray]

Now an cold easterly.

 

[ICE COLD]

And here’s tonight’s GEM run that’s a stonker too

[shaky]

Gota give it to gem here!was really going for the blocking last couple of days and now ukmo ecm and gfs have joined the party!could still change though!

[mb018538]

Runs tonight certainly cold enough for snow down to low levels, even at the end of March. Will require precise positions of highs/lows as usual, but increasing chances for sure. 
I think deep down as the PV raged through winter and the flooding rains came, we all had a thought it would probably turn cold and blocked as winter ended. We may be proven right.

[Frosty.]

Gobsmacking charts from the ECM 12z operational..516 dam at the end of March would be sensational!

[stodge]

Evening All

Fascinating to see tonight's ECM 12Z OP follow last night's GEM 12Z setting up a large HP between Iceland and Greenland and sending a very chilly NE'ly flow across the British Isles. JMA also supportive of the evolution.

GFS still struggling with this more unusual evolution - the mid Atlantic HP goes NE and to the north of the British Isles but the E'ly flow is maintained by the trough over Europe with LP close to southern parts. There's a breakdown of sorts in far Fi. 

In the shorter term the OP looks to have plenty of support in the Ensemble as the Mean suggests:

It looks fine but chilly to the north and west and thoroughly unpleasant to the south and east - -12 850s approaching next Monday suggesting below average temperatures in contrast to this time last year.. 

[ANYWEATHER]

You have to laugh really,  now we are in Spring the models are showing the best set of atmospheric synoptics we have had all Winter!!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Good god, it's been ages since I was able to ramp the cold on here, but being as my head is falling off with stress.... Here goes.... Cold snap incoming... Hopefully cold enough to freeze the backside of this horrid virus... Or at least cold enough to make some think twice before venturing out unnecessarily.. Whatever your doing.. Please stay safe. 

[damianslaw]

12 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

You have to laugh really,  now we are in Spring the models are showing the best set of atmospheric synoptics we have had all Winter!!!

Yes these type of synoptics are far more likely from now on until June than any other stage of the year, chances of northerly and easterly airstreams increase markedly at this time of year, also coincides with the drier part of the year for the NW, another sign northerlies and easterlies can have a more dominant influence.

[stodge]

7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes these type of synoptics are far more likely from now on until June than any other stage of the year, chances of northerly and easterly airstreams increase markedly at this time of year, also coincides with the drier part of the year for the NW, another sign northerlies and easterlies can have a more dominant influence.

The question for me is whether the duration and strength of the PV this year has made them more rather than less likely.

The current warming is substantial and that may be what is weakening the PV to allow blocking to occur.

 

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

So to my surprise the GFS and UKMO moved to the ECM tonight! 

Stunning winter charts - if you still want winter. 

Could be snowfall almost anywhere this time next week if current charts verify. 

[snowray]

Ok, ECM is not an outlier, in fact probably the coldest set of ens from the ECM that I have seen this year. Still quite a spread there though.

Edited March 22, 2020 by snowray

[BlueHedgehog074]

1 hour ago, JON SNOW said:

Gobsmacking charts from the ECM 12z operational..516 dam at the end of March would be sensational!

 Very snowsational indeed! (sorry, lol)

May not be the ideal setup for the virus that’s going around. But as one or two say, these sort of charts make quite a nice distraction to what’s happening at the moment. 

[carinthian]

3 hours ago, carinthian said:

Fascinating watch the temp drop today over here. Started at 1c at 0500 and was down to -9c at 1700hrs. Forecast cold advection spot on at 850mb level ( that's about the height of the village at 5000feet absl) Forecast  chart tomorrow even colder.

C

Deep cold air now over the village. Temp at 22.00 hrs -14c with increasing snow flurries and some blowing snow. Rather nice to watch.

C