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Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
6 hours ago, Don said:

To be fair, we are due a cold plunge.  Been a while since we had one!

Agreed, and on yesterday's evidence it might be required to keep people from treating the current threat as an opportunity for a day out... Sorry to politicise. 

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
11 hours ago, johnholmes said:

Wow that is some change on the NOAA charts from what I posted yesterday, not sure if this will link in

image.thumb.png.ab112cd650a0c4d662b7d2174dc18f9a.png

Good it has. You can see the large difference on the 6-10 on my post  compared to the one in the post above from Allseasons-si. If this change is kept for 2-3 days, and with the 8-14 showing similar it looks a reasonable bet then a marked change in pattern.

Yes, and imho it heightens the chances of that dead weather off the north sea... low grey stratus ... oh joy

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Snow showers for N and NE Britain.

image.thumb.png.38c4aaa4c49d6013a1a47bdcad0c67a0.png

There goes my March CET guess out the window, looking like low 6's now not 7.3.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
42 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GEM still going for a proper Cold spell with a little snow for most 

87940908-1C8B-4053-864D-473C4FC93D33.png

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793F87CB-F8A9-4FCD-BB55-AAB2566D09B8.png

Remarkable how the GEM has stuck to it's guns with this, could end up quite snowy and not just in the far north.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

GFS ens for Birmingham there, some members going for -10c uppers!

 

 

 

graphe_ens3.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Some cold synoptics on offer this morning for the end of the month. In the near term, staying generally fine and settled and a bit milder away from the far NW, which unfortunately will be plagued by persistant quite heavy rain and strong winds off the atlantic. As we move into the middle of next week, the frontal system plaguing the far NW will begin to edge slowly SE through Scotland, turning conditions more cloudy for many with a more atlantic moist feed ahead of it. By the end of the week, we will have heights building strongly through mid atlantic and more importantly towards Greenland this will enable the front to swing south through the whole country with a cold polar feed behind it. Next weekend based on this morning's run looks cold with possible wintry showers not just on high ground and some sharp frosts. ECM prolongs the cold feed with a trough feature moving down and heights building in behind with a bitter cold NE/E wind feed.

Arctic airstreams - by end March can still pack a cold wintry punch.. quite a turnaround in affairs this second half of March is proving to be..

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

We're well and truly into the time of the year of quickly changing conditions, especially when winds are from between 0 degrees and 180 degrees.

archives-2003-4-4-0-0.png archives-2003-4-10-0-0.png archives-2003-4-15-12-0.png archives-2003-4-20-0-0.png

It wouldn't surprise me if we saw flips between cold and warm if what is shown in the models for the next week or two become the norm. Look no further than April 2003 that switched between cold northeasterly, very warm southeasterly, and chilly easterly.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

GFS

The latest GFS run shows settled weather dominating the British Isles up to day 5. After day 5, colder and perhaps more unsettled weather will start to dominate by a cold plunge. The cold plunge stretches as far down as Morocco.

h500slp.thumb.png.2c984dfeb49e01a73bbf82e202d5f6a9.png  865188948_h500slp(1).thumb.png.a9ba78a9d0cab9837687c9b87a132f7a.png  1641658132_h500slp(2).thumb.png.0cb492b7005dd7f27d852f0b598391d9.png  1974097569_h500slp(3).thumb.png.0873ba8755a8168409cfcc3624c098d5.png

During the cold plunge, I decided to have a look if there is a chance of any snow falling. By looking at it, there definitely is a chance, although it all looks to be falling on higher ground at the moment. This is the most widespread I could find:

prectypeuktopo.thumb.png.90eac9e1f3b35da7f4b313acb767acad.png

Then, on day 9, settled weather slowly and gradually starts to take charge again. It shows the high taking charge up to day 16!

534602341_h500slp(4).thumb.png.5a796c71d0c5c7bf66ad27a0405f1a34.png  22465325_h500slp(5).thumb.png.b3a934b4c3d4fa16e5958177de5d1780.png  1303088030_h500slp(6).thumb.png.40119df87ed6c9a64cea38869113f57a.png  1908357105_h500slp(7).thumb.png.b5d63e80c0e49f97766274c4f83123aa.png

 

ECMWF

The ECMWF has a near-similar approach. It has the high over the UK up until day 4. It suggests the cold plunge to take place a little bit earlier.

ecm500_024.thumb.png.3cdf8a5e6bb6352b8e0106f4eafd4c10.png  ecm500_096.thumb.png.e579e079400125e9363f599d8c4dea6b.png  ecm500_168.thumb.png.2c4713793350cdc99119bbee70a5f043.png  ecm500_240.thumb.png.9e79c74b88c18e016b9c8e867a8e5257.png

GEM

The GEM has the high dominating Europe up to day 6, so it suggests that it will dominate for a little bit longer then the GFS and the ECMWF suggest.

gem.thumb.png.6effe2b79579421b49f3b2974074a06a.png  gem0.thumb.png.66f27ab48ea6d02f0427cb49424349ce.png  gem1.thumb.png.07fb371b879627329a2861aa04e3af23.png  gem2.thumb.png.b49fc1a87d8161019f48b52740719337.png

And then on day 6 onwards, the plunge of cold air starts to dig in up to day 10.

gem3.thumb.png.9b2a9239bcd6479ef255e52db6563572.png  gem4.thumb.png.b6bc223d8e58081a9eff1c4871874f7a.png  gem5.thumb.png.1d223b3eda079c379bac59cea4c7642b.png  gem6.thumb.png.32808908478e1a75c86643d288f76b86.png

As I did with the GFS, I decided to see if there could be any snowfall during the cold plunge. I found these!

gem7.thumb.png.678222aa2c9a6a26f6dd36763d2eb930.png  gem8.thumb.png.9db55dd43090a91e5770507e65236465.png  gem9.thumb.png.82c6f32915405377674544ea6cabcc47.png

(Tried a new style of posting today - don't ask why! )

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

Latest GFS 12z also shows settling snowfall as far South as London and Kent. What happens now if this comes off? Theres not much left to panic buy

Screenshot_20200322-161255_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20200322-161313_Samsung Internet.jpg

20200322_161031.jpg

20200322_161017.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
12 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Latest GFS 12z also shows settling snowfall as far South as London and Kent. What happens now if this comes off? Theres not much left to panic buy

Screenshot_20200322-161255_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20200322-161313_Samsung Internet.jpg

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20200322_161017.jpg

Indeed it is @Kentspur!

Perhaps our last snowfall event of winter this year? Some places that haven't received snow yet (e.g. the majority of the country) could have a chance if it verifies!

prectypeuktopo.thumb.png.8528378683b10cfb45b23d32580c3838.png  907106248_prectypeuktopo(1).thumb.png.50c6048f21821fbb12cbdcb9968c0f49.png  2123037983_prectypeuktopo(2).thumb.png.2d23b7fd020efcc4adde22e135c53c82.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
15 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Latest GFS 12z also shows settling snowfall as far South as London and Kent. What happens now if this comes off? Theres not much left to panic buy

Screenshot_20200322-161255_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20200322-161313_Samsung Internet.jpg

20200322_161031.jpg

20200322_161017.jpg

What's the chances now!!! 

Edited by Griff
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Voila!

h500slp.thumb.png.f1a518c97ebb8eb3276a342ebd3fd538.png  1913742594_h500slp(1).thumb.png.cc7f3ad133d0245065e89e42d6198dcd.png

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Ukmo 12z!!!not only got cold continental air coming in from.the east but at 144 hours look at that blocking to the northwest with incoming cold air from the north east!!looks better than gfs dare i say!!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

More madness from the GEM, and yes, that's -12c uppers into Southern England!

 

 

gemeu-0-156.png

gemeu-1-162.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, snowray said:

More madness from the GEM, and yes, that's -12c uppers into Southern England!

 

 

gemeu-0-156.png

gemeu-1-162.png

It almost seems as if the weather is mocking us! 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, snowray said:

More madness from the GEM, and yes, that's -12c uppers into Southern England!

 

 

gemeu-0-156.png

gemeu-1-162.png

Scary thing is ukmo looks remarkably similar at 144 hours!gfs could be playing catch up still in regards to the blocking to the north west!!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, Griff said:

It almost seems as if the weather is mocking us! 

 

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Scary thing is ukmo looks remarkably similar at 144 hours!gfs could be playing catch up still in regards to the blocking to the north west!!

Yes its them weather gods that have got it in for us again, Winter about to bite for the first time, for many of us anyway, at the end of March.

I keep saying what could possibly go wrong, but this time it looks pretty well odds on that something very cold for the time of the year will turn up by the end of the week. ECM will be the banker later on of course.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

GFS ens looking pretty chilly there even for London and snow symbols to boot!:cold:

 

graphe_ens3.gif

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
8 minutes ago, snowray said:

GFS ens looking pretty chilly there even for London and snow symbols to boot!:cold:

 

graphe_ens3.gif

Snow in spring, whatever next.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
10 minutes ago, snowray said:

GFS ens looking pretty chilly there even for London and snow symbols to boot!:cold:

 

graphe_ens3.gif

And the extended....

graphe3_1000_265_28___.thumb.png.e6273bf08095c8a011e0cf3731e90ec5.png

and the cold looks extended too compared to last nights.

graphe3_1000_264_30___.thumb.png.f17894d2aecd9accc1302f994ba1ac9b.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
10 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Snow in spring, whatever next.

Snow in smarch even.

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

Just what the Country doesn't want at the moment our NHS are under enough pressure without all the issues a cold snap could bring.

C.S

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