Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
15 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Me like ECM 0z operational cold upgrade!⛄

0EE2B697-9191-45E3-9EC4-127BE082DEB4.thumb.png.0a46d8b2e5df6a7d5e5d741fc65e9f03.png7BDEF61C-FEB0-4CDA-928E-3FD5BB01BC5D.thumb.png.12a2f8a2c38b204e8028594cb5c626ae.pngFA54376F-04EC-4B3C-A9F9-7F56C7CD92C8.thumb.png.ba15beedf1eec40bc9a0f4f86836b0f8.pngA9ED1613-8F68-4731-AC72-9FAE4B67BA8F.thumb.png.336da5a974767125f2a5a1b6f22483ef.png

Hi Karl, hope you and your dad are coping OK in these difficult times. Yes the ECM is putting us into a cold situation moving forward. Infact the operational is going ballistic with nearly - 10 uppers!! Even the mean remains on the cold side. Will it do us any favours with current affairs? I'm not sure, but I certainly feel like I need to divert my attention away from this pandemic, as I feel like I'm slowly drowning under the sheer weight of it. But hey ho, this is weather, and it will do what it wants to do, regardless. But Yeh, some cold weather on the way according to some model output.. Stay safe all. 

graphe0_00_266_106___.png

Edited by Mattwolves
  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: newquay, cornwall
  • Location: newquay, cornwall

From my point of view 2 feet of snow would be great to stop people coming down to Cornwall holidaying and spread corona about to a county with about 12 itu beds. 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
25 minutes ago, mbrothers said:

From my point of view 2 feet of snow would be great to stop people coming down to Cornwall holidaying and spread corona about to a county with about 12 itu beds. 

I think there is more chance of Corona disappearing completely in the next few weeks than there is of 2ft of snow in Cornwall! I think the best coldies can hope for is a few flakes. Personally I’d be happy for a dusting & some more weather like today to get out and enjoy some fresh air 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
34 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Today's GFS 12Z operational still suggestive of possible warm-up commencing around Day 8::yahoo:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

I'll leave it to Papillon to decide what's best to do with the GEM!:oldlaugh:

Very easy on the eye those charts for early April, what could possibly go wrong? 12z ens a bit all over the place in FI so no real trend, but do confirm that it will remain dry and that a colder spell of weather is looking likely later next week.

 

 

 

graphe_ens3.gif

Edited by snowray
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Here we go ECM is running with the GEM and this is for D7 not exactly la la land!

 

ECE1-168.png

ECE0-168.png

:help: Wheres Steve M when you need him?

Edited by snowray
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
19 minutes ago, snowray said:

Here we go ECM is running with the GEM and this is for D7 not exactly la la land!

 

ECE1-168.png

ECE0-168.png

:help: Wheres Steve M when you need him?

Really is the GEM going to pull this one off this time, and not appear a complete @rse?

 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
1 minute ago, Dorsetbred said:

Really is the GEM going to pull this one off this time, and not appear a complete @rse?

 

You never know, must get it right at least once a year....this could be it...

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Compare GFS/UKMO with ECM at D6

ECM clearly more amplified, though GFS/UKMO are poised to provide more amplification by D7/D8

gfs-0-144.png?12  UW144-21.GIF?21-18  ECM1-144.GIF?21-0

Definitely an occasion where the ECM is likely to be overdoing it.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Although I’m hoping the ECM 12z is right about a cold plunge later next week, I have to say it was a jolly spiffing end to the GFS 12z today!

040626EC-3042-4DE3-BB59-5A6E3DB823D5.thumb.png.9ad9785efb27d706e839e5f2296274ad.pngFE131E16-47F3-4939-8FC5-F4DB4D5FA658.thumb.png.73bb92430fa286c041c803e9c28b58ca.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
5 hours ago, mbrothers said:

From my point of view 2 feet of snow would be great to stop people coming down to Cornwall holidaying and spread corona about to a county with about 12 itu beds. 

Would help here in the Lakes too...and they think they're doing us a favour by coming...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Evening All

Not a lot of clarity in the medium term this evening.

The question is what happens with the second push of HP at the end of next week and there are four scenarios out there currently:

1) ECM 12Z OP: The HP tries to ridge north but fails and withdraws back SW though still as a strong anticyclonic feature. With heights to the SW and NE unable to assert the gap is filled by the trough and by T+240 clear signs of the trough becoming negatively aligned through the British Isles.

2) GFS 12Z OP: The HP builds NE and then transits to the east well to the north of the British Isles before collapsing SE into western Russia. There's a brief spell of E'ly winds before the Atlantic re-asserts.

3) GFS 12Z Control: The HP builds NE and sets up shop to the north of the British Isles instigating a pattern change to more northern blocking and a slack E'ly flow over the British Isles.

4) GEM 12Z: The HP builds NE and sets up to the NW of the British Isles as an intense HP in response to which the Scandinavian trough tilts SSW into Europe leaving the British Isles in a strong and cold NE'ly airflow.

I'd argue looking at the GEFS at T+288 the OP is an outlier with the ensemble members strongly supportive of northern-based blocking though with varying permutations in position and orientation.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Been a while posting but it does look like there will be a retrogression of the hp cell to move to a location that we have not seen all winter,over Iceland/Greenland in the next ten days or so

the mean anomaly's show this well 

gefs,eps and cpc

gensnh-21-1-240.thumb.png.c259cbad75fbcefa7564b56e55ae797c.pngecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.59cd91848ed403237298f43943c66176.png

610day_03.thumb.gif.5e32906b27ad2c6f3fb13c8a91325dd0.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.89b4d646e284a1122454087f0f2e6480.gif 

why!

here's why,a major SSW/final warming taking place as of now and here is the jma at 6 hrs and 48 hrs,i would expect the spike on the jma 10hpa plot to uptick further in the coming days

JN6-5.thumb.gif.07ea3e4e259349ab02935a3549ef1cb1.gifJN48-5.thumb.gif.179a257fae2b6521e51e14d09177a0c8.gifpole10_nh.thumb.gif.70ccb24ac43cf7659d188ec3faa0fe0a.gif

a look at the NAO/AO and these are showing a deceleration into neg values that could promote northern blocking

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.b3976fe41bcdaecfd6b2dc7a29b1d2fe.gifao.sprd2.thumb.gif.afd1ea6420ab803b200840bb95885389.gif

the mjo cycles esp the gefs are orbiting back into phase 7/8 but the ecm because it only goes out to day ten is playing catch up 

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.thumb.gif.ffb0a5383ad8c6c199114b9fe7b3b5f7.gifECMF_phase_51m_small.thumb.gif.2b599ae5deecb8dd43f148c1a5105a43.gif

on a final note,i have been in isolation since last Wed/Thu,nothing too drastic with a sore throat and a slight cough,no high temps though and it just feels like a cold but i am not taking any chances

a part of me wants to see a final cold plunge but the other part of me(mostly)wants this winter to end,it have been a slog this winter,bring on the warmth now PLEASE.

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Wow that is some change on the NOAA charts from what I posted yesterday, not sure if this will link in

image.thumb.png.ab112cd650a0c4d662b7d2174dc18f9a.png

Good it has. You can see the large difference on the 6-10 on my post  compared to the one in the post above from Allseasons-si. If this change is kept for 2-3 days, and with the 8-14 showing similar it looks a reasonable bet then a marked change in pattern.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Please. Please. Please. Please.

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.edf3658f92b81636b44e5f12bf18b393.png   1419713426_ukmaxtemp(1).thumb.png.4c198aeb3ba06821217da647433094dd.png

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

WOW . I just had to post the GEM 12z run . Now that is a proper stonker . 

00217D71-1650-4DA6-8FE2-E555BC727EB0.png

07FF0D01-6A79-46F5-8EE5-CED48C3D6105.png

A0464131-3E50-45A6-B6E0-A9A32072AF43.png

640516A3-3165-4EF7-A11B-7648F813B79B.png

A67795DF-5F63-495D-BDBD-363B2F72E3DB.png

663F5F40-BD76-4619-B6A4-DCD9D583EA7A.png

18C7FDBC-338A-4380-94C9-ED832FA5F405.png

2040CA19-EDE0-47B2-AE50-228BF428DB1C.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
37 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

WOW . I just had to post the GEM 12z run . Now that is a proper stonker . 

The GEM is definitely a cold ramper these days!

Edited by Don
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
41 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

WOW . I just had to post the GEM 12z run . Now that is a proper stonker . 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The GEM seems to be a mild ramper these days!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Hey all.

The latest GFS run is still showing temps into the high teens at the start of April - if only it could verify!

1214739262_ukmaxtemp(2).thumb.png.04edf6be82b449a1239cf637425daaac.png

698448745_ukmaxtemp(3).thumb.png.816e16e961c73f0ab4150dadaadc892b.png

And, perhaps a thundery breakdown along with it? 

ukprec.thumb.png.2e44022ca6daa0e2f7132640da5a7cc1.png

654466660_ukprec(1).thumb.png.da3a9364837a6439a818793a315d6c2d.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
5 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Hey all.

The latest GFS run is still showing temps into the high teens at the start of April - if only it could verify!

 

It might well do!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Also, the GFS is still suggesting a cold plunge on days 7 and 8.

Brrrrrr! :cold: 

h500slp (10).png

h500slp (11).png

h500slp (12).png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

There is def a cold cluster on the gefs ens around the 27th/28th and 29th

graphe3_1000_264_30___.thumb.png.6f22d4e157eb9602a56b28edd9a95e04.png

mean 500 and 850's at 192

gensnh-21-1-192.thumb.png.e68e2698c80bb6405323b2281c8b58f5.pnggensnh-21-0-192.thumb.png.d2797ba41f6bfe36d0c7035d21ac86a6.png

it would of been nice to have this in winter instead of now with all what's going on,we might see snow falling out of our windows if a lock-down is enforced

i am still with you all guys,stay safe out there

              "STAY CALM"

"WE WILL GET THROUGH THIS"

night.

 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
35 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Also, the GFS is still suggesting a cold plunge on days 7 and 8.

Brrrrrr! :cold: 

 

 

 

To be fair, we are due a cold plunge.  Been a while since we had one!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...