Model output discussion 02/02/20

[markw2680]

I love the cold and snow but now all I want is some warmth and sun tbh, will make everyone feel better if nothing else and hopefully help clear up this bloody virus.

maybe then we could look forward to next winter and maybe it will resemble winter unlike this we have just endured, like months and months of autumn.

back to the models before I get sent to the naughty step. At least it’s looking dry and relatively sunny for this weekend and into next week.

hope everyone is ok  

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 0z longer term there are still some hints of winter, even into early April but also something more spring-like too. My overall impression of the 00z output is our weather will become more benign with some fine weather, especially further south, variable temps with overnight frosts at times..but not a completely settled outlook by any means, some shallow troughs floating around with a risk of showers from time to time but on the whole, much less rain and wind than we have been used to..in a nutshell..a quieter period.

 

Edited March 19, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Sky Full]

There is still considerable disagreement between ECM and GFS even as close as +192 hrs (27 March):

                                       ECM.                                                             GFS

500s       

850s.   .  

You would expect some similarity but these images could be from different seasons, let alone different models.  No way to know which way the weather will go from these charts.....

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just shows you what can still be achieved late in season - look at the cold pool so close.

[johnholmes]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just shows you what can still be achieved late in season - look at the cold pool so close.

Yes but like all the charts shown over the winter months at such distant time scales none ever verified. In my own blinkered view looking beyond 10 days 95% of the time is a total waste of time. Even at 10 days unless there is pretty close agreement between the different models and consistency as they step down to nearer time scales the probability is still not that high. The upper air, sorry to be on my hobby horse re 500 mb, but it is a fact that the models can cope better at height than lower down.

I'll shuurup!

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Yes but like all the charts shown over the winter months at such distant time scales none ever verified. In my own blinkered view looking beyond 10 days 95% of the time is a total waste of time. Even at 10 days unless there is pretty close agreement between the different models and consistency as they step down to nearer time scales the probability is still not that high. The upper air, sorry to be on my hobby horse re 500 mb, but it is a fact that the models can cope better at height than lower down.

I'll shuurup!

Yes - of course not saying a 384 or whatever it was will verify, but the models do factor in the lengthening days and stronger sun, guessing that with the -16c 850mb line not  far away, that any trigger like a height rise to the North West, could easily drag a potent wave down and the Northern flank of it be on the right side of the -8c line even down across the South giving widespread heavy snow, was just showing what is possible.

EDIT : always say your method is the best although would probably include a bit more ensemble guidance myself, if you want a more definitive forecast your way deffo best, if you are just looking for the very first signs in the hunt for cold and being a bit more speculative, i do like having a look at members showing real dips at the end of the run.

Edited March 19, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[Andy Bown]

I truly sincerely hope that no cold and/or dull spell turns up. The only beneficiaries will be energy companies as everyone forced to be at home uses more electricity and heating etc!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Andy Bown said:

I truly sincerely hope that no cold and/or dull spell turns up. The only beneficiaries will be energy companies as everyone forced to be at home uses more electricity and heating etc!

But if it was really bitter with heavy snow though, it might stop people going out and infecting other people.

[Gowon]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But if it was really bitter with heavy snow though, it might stop people going out and infecting other people.

Yeah, right!! 

 

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But if it was really bitter with heavy snow though, it might stop people going out and infecting other people.

Haha like that's going to happen in April. There isn't a cat in hell's chance it will be that cold. It might be a bit chilly with a cold spell, but we are way past the point of a bitter spell.

850s are going to be around -5c tomorrow in places and it will still be 8/9c in these areas.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Haha like that's going to happen in April. There isn't a cat in hell's chance it will be that cold. It might be a bit chilly with a cold spell, but we are way past the point of a bitter spell.

850s are going to be around -5c tomorrow in places and it will still be 8/9c in these areas.

 

Big dumping even in southern England in parts.

[Had Worse]

Anyone remember April 4th 2012?

We had a good dumping here which brought down HV power and telephone lines. Certainly 5 to 7 " so its possible.

[Neil Harris]

4 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But if it was really bitter with heavy snow though, it might stop people going out and infecting other people.

Kids will be desperate to get out and build snowmen!

[snowray]

Had to chuckle to myself when I saw this from the GEM, nationwide snow event.

 

 

[Zak M]

I think the GEM is on something today... 

[jules216]

Greetings from Slovakia.We are on cusp of an incredible cold snap. EPS mean was at -14C T850hPa for duration of Sunday and Monday,almost like we are reserving the severest of westher next week along wth Czechs,Polish and Hungarians,incredible

[stodge]

Evening all

As we often see at this time of year some curious synoptics as the perennial battle between warm and cold air masses gets going.

ECM 12Z OP ends with HP building to the north and north east:

GFS 12Z OP looks very different:

Control looks very different again:

GEM closer to ECM as is often the case:

The GFS 12Z Mean tells the story - a number of the GEFS are toying with rising heights to the NW as the PV shifts from its usual position further west or across the Pole to Siberia.

The question is whether with heights to both NW and NE we will see the trough sit over or just to the north of the British Isles keeping us in a cool and unsettled NW'ly flow.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All! We are now entering a dramatic synoptic change of what seems to be an endless run of Atlantic weather. It looks as though winds will be blowing in from anywhere between north and east in general in the weeks ahead. So rainfall looks as though it's on the decrease and colder than average temperatures too. Not that unusual for this synoptic pattern at this time of year. Both ecm and gfs shows potentially some Heavy thundery wintry showers this time next week, Watch this space....! 

[Don]

7 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Big dumping even in southern England in parts.

That was the good old days before climate change! 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 hours ago, jules216 said:

Greetings from Slovakia.We are on cusp of an incredible cold snap. EPS mean was at -14C T850hPa for duration of Sunday and Monday,almost like we are reserving the severest of westher next week along wth Czechs,Polish and Hungarians,incredible

Told you not to panic and you would get one eventually - bet your location has never had a winter without a dumping.

[Zak M]

Hey all.

The search for some warmer and more settled weather continues. This weather is very much needed as it slows the spread of the virus.

The GFS 18z has been absolute pants. It doesn't show anything warm or settled from day 10 onwards. 

I also posted something about the GEM when it was showing widespread snow for the majority of the country, in late March. If only! 

On a real note however, we need to hope that the GFS soon suggests some warmer and more settled weather as we go into April. Central parts of France reached 22c yesterday at their peak. Temperatures like that are always welcome in these type of situations.

Goodnight everyone.

[Bradowl]

18 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But if it was really bitter with heavy snow though, it might stop people going out and infecting other people.

Might cause panic buying though. 

[jethro]

7 hours ago, Zak M said:

Hey all.

The search for some warmer and more settled weather continues. This weather is very much needed as it slows the spread of the virus.

The GFS 18z has been absolute pants. It doesn't show anything warm or settled from day 10 onwards. 

I also posted something about the GEM when it was showing widespread snow for the majority of the country, in late March. If only! 

On a real note however, we need to hope that the GFS soon suggests some warmer and more settled weather as we go into April. Central parts of France reached 22c yesterday at their peak. Temperatures like that are always welcome in these type of situations.

Goodnight everyone.

I'm beginning to wonder about this theory of warmer weather slowing the spread of the virus. I know seasonal flu dwindles as the weather gets warmer, but it's warmer and drier in both Italy and Spain, it's not making any difference there.

Back to the weather, wouldn't be surprised to see snow before it finally warms up a bit, countless times down south we've had a good 6 inches late in the season, sometimes very late and into April. It can be cold enough but it doesn't tend to last more than a day or so. 

[mb018538]

21 minutes ago, jethro said:

I'm beginning to wonder about this theory of warmer weather slowing the spread of the virus. I know seasonal flu dwindles as the weather gets warmer, but it's warmer and drier in both Italy and Spain, it's not making any difference there.

Back to the weather, wouldn't be surprised to see snow before it finally warms up a bit, countless times down south we've had a good 6 inches late in the season, sometimes very late and into April. It can be cold enough but it doesn't tend to last more than a day or so. 

I think I saw that it needs to be properly warm (ie summer warmth - temps in the high 20s+)....but as others have said, it's currently late summer in Australia and warm there - it hasn't really stopped the spread there much, if at all.

 

Edited March 20, 2020 by mb018538

[Methuselah]

About all I can gather, from today's GFS 00Z, is that high pressure never looks like being too far away; but positioning and orientation of that high pressure'll be a bit of a lottery...Though, plenty of sunshine ought to be rather damaging to RNA strands...?

    

In the meantime STAY SAFE everyone!