Model output discussion 02/02/20

[snowray]

GFS 06z mean looks cold with wintry showers in the east.

Edited March 14, 2020 by snowray

[Eugene]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The GEFS mean now has the -10c line into EA at 192 > thats the lowest its been.

Very nice Steve, some real deep cold pools over the Arctic to tap into there, could be a very cold second half to March/early April coming up.

[Methuselah]

Quite a respectable finish to today's 06Z operational run? Plenty of time for me to get the polytunnels shipshape!

    

[snowray]

The control run extends the cold with wintry showers followed by snow moving up from the SE.

 

 

 

[Djdazzle]

Just when you want a bit of warmth, the models start toying us with proper cold. Very unlikely to get any lying snow in the second half of March though. The ground isn’t cold, and the sun is packing a punch now.

Will it be yet another non event? Think a UK based high is the more likely outcome, which would feel pleasant.

[Climate Man]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

Just when you want a bit of warmth, the models start toying us with proper cold. Very unlikely to get any lying snow in the second half of March though. The ground isn’t cold, and the sun is packing a punch now.

Will it be yet another non event? Think a UK based high is the more likely outcome, which would feel pleasant.

Looks like typical spring days with large diurnal range. Frosty at times and sunny most of the time, I hope. Possible mist at first. Hope of crisp lying snow is just that but the odd shower....possibly. 

[nobble]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

Just when you want a bit of warmth, the models start toying us with proper cold. Very unlikely to get any lying snow in the second half of March though. The ground isn’t cold, and the sun is packing a punch now.

Will it be yet another non event? Think a UK based high is the more likely outcome, which would feel pleasant.

Agreed very unlikely , but it happened 7 years ago , and believe me out of the sun I had lying snow until 12 th April

[snowray]

1 hour ago, nobble said:

Agreed very unlikely , but it happened 7 years ago , and believe me out of the sun I had lying snow until 12 th April

Yes it can settle alright, it's only March, I have had snow settle in April even around here in the London suburbs quite a few times, didn't stick around for very long but was enough to got my fix!

[tight isobar]

Let's ponder over the ens \plots.. It's clear to see between the Aberdeen \London ens...a clear shaped clustering well below the drop line...and compare would note..an easterly \continental component. ...with with temp plots also on the downside!!!..and the South East stretching the members furthest!!!. A serious view of winter...  In spring.    

 

#don't forget to wash ya hands!!!!

Edited March 14, 2020 by tight isobar

[Mike Poole]

ICON at T144:

So yes to the easterly on this run, uppers probably conducive of snow if anything falls from the sky, you can get away with less cold uppers than if the wind is from the northwest for example.  

Just to post the clusters T240 and T360:

High pressure the theme for our vicinity, it's a question of where.  Any road, an end to the rain would be most welcome.

[Methuselah]

Yuck! If the 12Z for next Sunday verifies, I think I'll self-isolate?

    

[MR EXTREMES]

im looking for a retrogression of heights into northern blocking both gfs and gefs have the vortex disrupting over to Siberian side of the arctic but a cold end to march maybe into early spring.

the easterly qbo must be falling deeper keep an eye on the nao and ao got a feeling northern blocking with be the form horse for awhile.

but perhaps a much better summer.

but back to the models easterly then cold getting mixed out.

in  the longer run Canadian vortex takes a holiday.

bringing Europe to below average with cold pooling developing.

after the mixing out of cold in the UK theirs northwesterly or a reload from the north that could possible bring a colder northeasterly or another easterly.

but much colder into northeastern Europe as the Canadian segment drops down into Europe.

 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z I certainly wouldn’t rule out a mini beast from the east although there is also some support for something much warmer from the south / southeast in the same range..lots of interest for sure and a more settled spell either way is the form horse.

 

Edited March 14, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Methuselah]

Not back to square one-ish...Surely!

    

[Kentspur]

UKMO 12z ends with a chilly Easterly setting up. Will it be dry or enough to bring in some wintryness through the weekend?

[SMU]

Well the deep cold Upper air has evaporated across the 06z > 12z due to some residual energy developing that low over france promoting a more ESE flow.

Thats about the end of Winter in terms of snow risk.

[Mike Poole]

^ yes. it is looking more like UK cold high now, ECM has this T192:

Good job there is something else to worry about, or we'd be gutted!

[Faronstream]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

^ yes. it is looking more like UK cold high now, ECM has this T192:

Good job there is something else to worry about, or we'd be gutted!

We still have an SSW coming, will hopefully have an effect later on in spring and give us many degrees below average

[MR EXTREMES]

there be an easterly of sorts i still reckon its possible of cold northern blocking.

 

the jma and ecm are in agreement .

be interesting to see how this turns out.

Edited March 14, 2020 by MR EXTREMES

[nick sussex]

If this was mid winter I think it would be a real kick in the teeth to see this big change in 850s . Not a single ECM ensemble member for London on the 00hrs went above zero at day 6 and 7 . So that’s the op and 50 members all wrong at that range .

 

Edited March 14, 2020 by nick sussex

[danm]

6 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

Just when you want a bit of warmth, the models start toying us with proper cold. Very unlikely to get any lying snow in the second half of March though. The ground isn’t cold, and the sun is packing a punch now.

Will it be yet another non event? Think a UK based high is the more likely outcome, which would feel pleasant.

My feelings exactly. So late into March all this will deliver is a bitter wind, possibly some wintry showers but little to nothing actually settling. 

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

We still have an SSW coming, will hopefully have an effect later on in spring and give us many degrees below average

Aye, that is true, but in the Southern UK it probably won't do anything, the northern contingent may have different views. But if we are all confined indoors by that point  it won't make a blind bit of difference.

[Zak M]

Anyone fancy this on day 10?

    

[Zak M]

The ECMWF is just doing its bits!

[snowray]

Interesting to note that the ECM was a mild outlier, it would seem to me that the cold air has been pushed too far east on the 12z runs.