Model output discussion 02/02/20

[Zak M]

The GFS 18z is showing something for the coldies on day 13.

Snowfall accumulations aren't likely if this verifies. Would of been better if it was in Jan/Feb but the odd flurry can't be ruled out!

Or if you crave for some milder and more settled weather (like me) then days 7-11 do show some promise!

[chris55]

Just checked the ensembles and was surprised how cold some of those runs are! Had to have a more detailed look at the thread etc as haven’t been paying close attention to the runs!

Not sure how useful these 850s would be regarding snowfall this late in the season though? Hopefully some night frosts and sunny days not a cold cloudy raw easterly! 

 

[SMU]

00z Coldest run operationally yet

Looks like lowest upper air circa -11/-12c

Theta E around 6c for the SE = Snow showers.

Edited March 14, 2020 by Steve Murr

[SLEETY]

Winter Incoming in March AGAIN

SNOW flurries for some

[Kentspur]

Beautiful wintry charts showing with decent snow charts for the East and SE especially ❄Hello Beast!

[Frosty.]

Really exceptional charts for the SE in particular from the Gfs 0z operational with a wintry sting in the tail...fingers crossed we (coldies) can salvage something from the mangled train wreck of the last 4 months!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Yeh this cold spell can do one has anyone actually thought this through? This is the worst possible thing that can happen right now. Our economy is already on its knees, we have a virus spreading like wild fire and history tells us cold weather usually makes flu and colds worse...we are all including farmers looking to start summer crops.. and some are excited over a few flakes and potential for more disruption.. 

I for one hope this gets watered down into nothing and I love cold and snow but not now...to many lives at risk. 

Edited March 14, 2020 by Surrey

[Faronstream]

This nights ECM again have the high pressure center further north and now almost into central Scandi at 192h, just gets better and better

[lassie23]

38 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Yeh this cold spell can do one has anyone actually thought this through? This is the worst possible thing that can happen right now. Our economy is already on its knees, we have a virus spreading like wild fire and history tells us cold weather usually makes flu and colds worse...we are all including farmers looking to start summer crops.. and some are excited over a few flakes and potential for more disruption.. 

I for one hope this gets watered down into nothing and I love cold and snow but not now...to many lives at risk. 

Well if it follows the pattern of the so called winter we just had, it will be dumped for the first 20c and sunshine instead, in a couple of days. I've prepared for a BBQ just in case.

[Griff]

Crikey, I've had my head down with work for a few days, and even the weather looks to be taking a turn for the worst. 

[Man With Beard]

Kind of fitting that we get our first proper cold blast of winter on the day Spring begins! 

ECM clusters last night are *fairly* strong on positioning this ridge slightly to the NW, but worth reiterating as usual, the normal correction for such ridges tends to be southerly rather than northerly - might not mean it will be particularly warmer but would rule out the Thames Streamer. Which on the op runs this morning looks a strong possibility. 

[lottiekent]

1 hour ago, Surrey said:

Yeh this cold spell can do one has anyone actually thought this through? This is the worst possible thing that can happen right now. Our economy is already on its knees, we have a virus spreading like wild fire and history tells us cold weather usually makes flu and colds worse...we are all including farmers looking to start summer crops.. and some are excited over a few flakes and potential for more disruption.. 

I for one hope this gets watered down into nothing and I love cold and snow but not now...to many lives at risk. 

I’d take a short lived cold spell. After all, it’s not like it’s going to be drifts and ice days for days on end. In reality a day or two with some flurries. At least it’s not showing the onslaught of wind and rain from the Atlantic - more wind and rain is definitely what we don’t need now!

[bluearmy]

I’m not seeing any likelihood of notable snowfall from the upcoming pattern with the coldest uppers to our se

whilst Europe could do with some warmth , that’s not going to happen and our economy could do with the settled conditions coming to allow the flooded regions to dry out 

[Damp and dreary]

35 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

I’d take a short lived cold spell. After all, it’s not like it’s going to be drifts and ice days for days on end. In reality a day or two with some flurries. At least it’s not showing the onslaught of wind and rain from the Atlantic - more wind and rain is definitely what we don’t need now!

Good morning Lottie. It is looking more and more likely that we will get a cold spell, starting around a weeks time. the usual shifts in models have been occurring but, all gravitating back to an Easterly push starting around the 22ndish.
It would be nice to see a bit of snow as its always a horrid thing when we do not get any for a whole Winter period.
I do hope it does not affect the spread of the Virus though, hopefully the opposite as it will keep people indoors more. Myself and my good Lady are currently in our 2nd day of Self isolation here. She fell ill on Thursday and so is stuck in the bedroom while i havnt caught it so far thankfully. I have COPD so my lungs would really struggle if i did catch it. We are both going stir crazy already her upstairs and me stuck in the lounge!  Stay safe everybody   
Edit: i actually thought this was in the regional room, sorry if its  a bit off topic!

Edited March 14, 2020 by jasonuk

[nick sussex]

The UKMO is making a drama over that shortwave to the west and looks nowhere near as good as the GFS or the ECM .

In terms of the GFS its recent ensemble behaviour has been woeful with seemingly vastly supported outcomes being dropped and huge swings there between runs .

We’ve been here before with the UKMO which is always the decider in these set ups.

 

[Don]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

We’ve been here before with the UKMO which is always the decider in these set ups.

Yes, expect the ECM and GFS to move towards the UKMO.

[Portsmouth Sun]

Surely only a moron craves a cold spell and all the risk associated with it spreading the pesky virus. On the small plus side a cooler dry spell would help people who have purchased houses on flood plains dry out.  As it stands it looks like the Atlantic onslaught could be tamed for a while.

[winterof79]

Looks solid to me

[nick sussex]

11 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, expect the ECM and GFS to move towards the UKMO.

I’d give it one more run to see if the UKMO changes its tune .

That shortwave to the west is an irritation even in the GFS and ECM outputs but not as bad as the UKMO.

Edited March 14, 2020 by nick sussex

[Methuselah]

It's great to see high pressure on the scene, after so many months of rain; but, as far as its position goes, it's nae so good: very cold nights(?) and hopefully bright days --- but, with SLPs being upward of 1030mb: bugger-all snow!

    

[IanR]

 well at least the coronvirius likes the cold charts,  a better chance of it spreading

still need warm summer 27c temps to curb it ,  not coming anytime soon

[feb1991blizzard]

Here she comes!

[Methuselah]

Indeed...a chance of a few snowgrains incoming!

    

[Zak M]

Much better!

[SMU]

The GEFS mean now has the -10c line into EA at 192 > thats the lowest its been.