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Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
46 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

This past 24 hours has seen a significant nosedive in upper temps on the ENS as the models amplify the ridge more substantially which digs the down stream troughing further south & West.

Still some uncertainty as to whether we get the 'true' Easterly however at the very least a blast of -6 to -8c air looks likely...

 

The form guide says the Easterly won't come off.

But if it was to manifest, quite often in these instances the situation develops a lot quicker than when first modelled, so that we could be looking at something interesting on our doorstep by as early as wednesday next week.

But just to emphasise the chances....  IF

 

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
1 hour ago, Timmytour said:

The form guide says the Easterly won't come off.

But if it was to manifest, quite often in these instances the situation develops a lot quicker than when first modelled, so that we could be looking at something interesting on our doorstep by as early as wednesday next week.

But just to emphasise the chances....  IF

 

Is the word IF big enough?! 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Just now, Steve Murr said:

GFS trends colder still through 144...

Yer looking decent , here comes the plunge .

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

With big segment of pv over Siberian side.

March does tend to deliver an easterly but jigsaw parts are coming together quick.

Any further north them heights go could well have a proper cold spell.

Maybe not months but perhaps a week or two.

Mind you wait till the ukmo agrees with the GFS.

Very cold air bottled up in the north its been very cold at the pole and around the Arctic.

Wonder what the ECM says I reckon it will also go easterly.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Now this is more like it! Bring it on!:yahoo:

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But, about as likely to materialise as this morning's BFTE charts!:oldlaugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

The latest GEM run is definitely for the spring lovers!! 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 hour ago, Zak M said:

The latest GEM run is definitely for the spring lovers!! 

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Although the latest ensembles graphs....Will make you shudder...if spring..is your THING.. That's some support for a cold decline!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Quick comparison of the models at T168, a weeks time:

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Cold air on the GFS and ECM, less so on the GEM.  

I would say that personally, I'm not looking for snow any more.  Increasingly, my daily view of the weather models is through the prism of the coronavirus outbreak.  What would help us most?  I'm not sure what the science says, but my experience is that people tend to catch less viruses when it is particularly hot or cold, more when wet and middle temperatures, as per Autumn.  But a lot of factors in play including how people interact with each other in different weather conditions.  And on top of that there is government action, of course.  Very difficult times.

Finally, it does look like the strat might be about to go bang, GFS 12z has this at T210:

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So we might want to price in a cold April.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Models all in agreement of a major pattern change over the coming days to something we haven't seen for quite some time i.e. high pressure!. By Wednesday next week, major amplification taking place, heights ridging north quite far into the arctic allowing cold air advection to our east and a 'cold high' to anchor itself over the UK, with some cold uppers, colder than anything all season by this time next week. There has been a major short sudden swing today in the reliable.

Looking forward to some sustained sunny dry weather at least, long long long overdue...

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Story of winter the 18z bucks the trend . No where near as good as previous runs for those cold uppers . . All to Far East . GFS 12z first chart 18z second. 

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)

So we wait all winter for something cold, and we may now get it at the end of March?? You couldn’t make it up.

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Thought I would drop into the model thread for a quick one, just to relieve the stress and tension that we are all currently under! At long last signs of a major pattern change. Just how long as it been since we witnessed nearly - 10 uppers to the UK!! At the very least some very cold nights and dare I say it, a wintry suprise or two before much longer! Regardless of the weather over the next few weeks, I don't think it will change the grave situation we currently are facing!! As always... Take care folks. 

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Yes, but we just have to ride the Corona storm Bud. Would snow and ice be a good thing now though? That's the question.... 

Edited by Snowfish2
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

What a fantastic chart if only it was a month or two earlier.

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Unfortunately we only have the dregs of the cold coming our way.

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 If we can't get a warm high no point in a cold dry one at this time of the year. Never know, might produce a few snow showers/flurries in the south east out of this, and still time for upgrades of course.

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
45 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Oh hi Greenland High...you’re 6 weeks late!!

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Realistic to.

some fun and games with the cold surge coming from the east.

 

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