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Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Chart of the winter > Spring ?

But PTB 7 is the best run...

E3077EFA-F53F-4326-B386-9D18396E78A1.thumb.jpeg.bf61a8f61dce44862c7cf5ae5c468427.jpeg

gens-2-1-288.thumb.png.3efa61267cc944fcce327c7a91c885b2.pnggens-2-1-300.thumb.png.6186d50249641c863b539fad913618f5.pnggens-2-1-312.thumb.png.193ad8be482f18e1ae6299fa60206dc9.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
15 hours ago, bazookabob said:

*Too... Back O/T...  

I know. Hence the !!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
13 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

gens-2-1-288.thumb.png.3efa61267cc944fcce327c7a91c885b2.pnggens-2-1-300.thumb.png.6186d50249641c863b539fad913618f5.pnggens-2-1-312.thumb.png.193ad8be482f18e1ae6299fa60206dc9.png 

Oh if only it was mid winter...Can still pack a punch though even in mid/late March, like we saw two years ago. In fact would be quite a shock to the system after all this mild, rain and wind.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
48 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Impressive heights, not sure where the precipitation is coming from?

That's not too bad for the South, although better the further East you are, Northern UK yes much drier.

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That's not too bad for the South, although better the further East you are, Northern UK yes much drier.  All good looking at those charts if they showed in jan or feb i would be getting a bit excited how ever i don't think these will come to much. If you look at mets update they do say we may get east north easterly winds with clouds. Here's mets take.  

Temperatures will be generally near or somewhat above average. However, as is usual when we go into spring, there will be large ranges of temperature at times, giving some frosty nights followed by pleasantly warm days as well as some marked day to day changes in temperature.There is also the possibility of spells of east or northeast winds bringing rather cold, cloudy conditions to eastern parts.  So you have it.

 

 

Edited by syed2878
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

 

Thing is though i didn't say it would verify, just said it would be snowy for the south if it did, but i still believe an easterly of some description is becoming more likely with each run, although who knows what airmass it would contain.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

ALL bets are on...and devices are going..@Scandinavian placement...and late winter surge!!!...the viable option atm!!!

gem-ens_z500a_eu_46.png

gfs-ens_z500a_eu_53.png

gfs-ens_z500a_eu_59.png

temp4.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.

Nothing like the good old Ecm to add a touch of realism to the proceedings as borne out by the overnight run. Looking very doubtful now that we can expect any last minute surprises with regards to Scandinavian heights with more a Euro slug being the form horse. Mercifully it will at least bring something springlike to our shores at long last.

33D50D97-8399-4D7A-9561-49BFB0B66A8C.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

That was the 12z > 00z edges colder

07C7867D-6DC3-4986-9DFD-52E79EC9BE01.thumb.jpeg.c96207c3a8cf72f8cd4f86d5fe6436c9.jpeg

True Steve, but differences look pretty minor in the grand scheme of things. With the way this season has panned out in general I just can’t see anything noteworthy emerging now so late on with this in all likelihood being another false dawn to add to the already endless collection. As ever though, time will tell. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
29 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

True Steve, but differences look pretty minor in the grand scheme of things. With the way this season has panned out in general I just can’t see anything noteworthy emerging now so late on with this in all likelihood being another false dawn to add to the already endless collection. As ever though, time will tell. 

Well the GFS ensembles have taken a notable colder track than yesterday:

image.thumb.png.0a7e067f72753142b469cc3a644cf8e1.png

It's almost 50/50 between milder/colder air winning out now, when it was about 80/20 in favour of mild yesterday. I'd prefer mild in late March to be honest, but as long as it's dry it's a winner for most people.
 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

We haven't had any false dawns regarding Easterlies this winter as they haven't even appeared in the output until very recently, looking more likely that some sort of easterly is going too appear, but too far out to know if it will be very cold or not.. yet

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
26 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

We haven't had any false dawns regarding Easterlies this winter as they haven't even appeared in the output until very recently, looking more likely that some sort of easterly is going too appear, but too far out to know if it will be very cold or not.. yet

Wouldn't surprise me to see some snow even down here in the south Sleety 

Quite a few of the ghastly late 80,s and late 90's winters saw snow falling in April. 89 and 99 in particular after dire mild mush through the winter nonths  

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 0z mean is looking great for a major pattern change to quiet anticyclonic weather in the mid range further south and then nationwide longer term!

535AA7A2-596B-4701-8FE6-4F06A76E896A.thumb.png.d4ae0664caed00d3f2142c88e8a6ca24.png3D70C71D-E0D1-4218-9626-692624870718.thumb.png.073ff4d35ce2ee85eac9a0739b8fb154.pngC2639175-0467-4C2B-B6FE-5D075ABED87E.thumb.png.b861bcd091162d014a4dd73bd71b3440.pngA4604FBF-E06E-4DC4-8BB1-BC8ECE0A0186.thumb.png.222558642378a5d07c5284205750a254.png

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Clusters:

D7 - ridge building:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020031200_168.

D10 - High pressure over the UK:
image.thumb.png.c08c4af32537fa57eee84a75d1ccca17.png

D12 - some disagreement with where the high goes:
image.thumb.png.8ee45966de5d2b286b0f27f92de83417.png

D15 - messy, but likely to be settled on the whole:

image.thumb.png.5dfcdc467644ece8da7be7e2fd547e4e.png

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

About 1 month too late for mi liking. Here in central Europe we are expecting lovely spring weather for next week or so, today 16 to 21C. But if the high migrates where GFS and EC indicate we might hit the coldest uppers since winter 2018/19. Not great news at all, but atmosphere doesn't behave like we want it to. The frost might do quite damage if it comes with such a magnitude. It would be much worse if this was to happen another 3 weeks down the line. Good bye crops of fruit

89813412_612855522630168_9052097300960116736_n.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

6z looks nice and dry & settled:

image.thumb.png.35023010b26136ba8bf676175f62bd27.pngimage.thumb.png.2679a178830a13a274ed3898feb25f34.pngimage.thumb.png.af3b9f9007a84b400b55f65f4f2d44d8.pngimage.thumb.png.63cdb5ad00a4e6499a6796d5fdd5eaec.png
 

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
12 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

gens-2-1-288.thumb.png.3efa61267cc944fcce327c7a91c885b2.pnggens-2-1-300.thumb.png.6186d50249641c863b539fad913618f5.pnggens-2-1-312.thumb.png.193ad8be482f18e1ae6299fa60206dc9.png 

If Europe would have had a cold winter(still cold) I would understand the slight excitement from a cold pov but surely if these did come to fruition, it would be cold,cloudy towards the east ,so with with precipitation.

Bring on the warmth of spring.......

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

GFS6z delivers a nice 1040mb over the UK from days 7-10 with cool air at the surface (good durinal range). 

spacer.png

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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

A pattern change now look more certain,with a cold high pressure moving ever north or northeast of the U.K.

The good news is there could be more dry weather and some sun to boot temperatures may be subdued 

but a stronger sun will give some warm and pleasant sunshine.A definite bit of good news if it happens

the country needs it with all that’s happening.

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

It looks as though the first attempt by HP to push NE into Scandinavia doesn't,work as there is still too much energy in the northern arm of the jet but the second attempt is more successful (Control says the third attempt).

10 HPA by the end of the month:

gfsnh-10-366.png?12

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