Model output discussion 02/02/20

[Jeremy Shockey]

GFS 6z @ 294

The SE could be in for a late cold shock on 23rd !

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

GFS 6z @ 294

The SE could be in for a late cold shock on 23rd !

Before people start getting too hyped up...



There are only around 4/20 ensemble members going cold, the 6z OP is a big outlier. The vast majority of members (and therefore the mean) for D10-D15 is above average.
 

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And this is definitely an Easterly @mushymanrob A mean at 384 cannot be ignored when it shows an E'ly, ok most members are not a showing a snowy Easterly but an Easterly is still an Easterly, whether snowy or not, we are not at the point yet where Easterlies at surface will be warm, even with modest uppers.

@General Cluster  @winterof79 to...

There are no easterlies on the anomaly charts, theres no high pressure over Scandinavia. They are more accurate for this timescale then the ops which swing wildly.

The question is..... have the ops picked up on a trend before the anoms, or are they leading you up the garden path again?

Until/if the anomalies ever shift to allow an easterly, its the garden path!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

@General Cluster  @winterof79 to...

There are no easterlies on the anomaly charts, theres no high pressure over Scandinavia. They are more accurate for this timescale then the ops which swing wildly.

The question is..... have the ops picked up on a trend before the anoms, or are they leading you up the garden path again?

Until/if the anomalies ever shift to allow an easterly, its the garden path!

That is a GEFS mean at 384 not an op - but to be fair the EPS don't look all that cold, however , the CPC anomalies do show a + anomaly over scandinavia if not an actual ridge.

[mb018538]

33 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

@General Cluster  @winterof79 to...

There are no easterlies on the anomaly charts, theres no high pressure over Scandinavia. They are more accurate for this timescale then the ops which swing wildly.

The question is..... have the ops picked up on a trend before the anoms, or are they leading you up the garden path again?

Until/if the anomalies ever shift to allow an easterly, its the garden path!

Looks like an easterly to me...I know these are 500mb plots, but a Scandi high like that would give an easterly of sorts.

[legritter]

Hi gang ,just to say i am around and reading the forums .Is there a mini beast crawling towards the uk  , something LURKING in some of the long range  charts, hope all are keeping well , catch you up later cheers ..

[stodge]

Afternoon all

The question seems to be whether we will see the Azores or Atlantic HP migrate through the British isles into Scandinavia or stay to the south west or just sit over us as a mid-latitude feature.

All three options seem to be on the table at present - GEM 00Z OP and GFS 06Z OP and Control look to be heading to the Scandinavian HP route while ECM 00Z OP doesn't suggest that. 

I do think some form of HP or blocking is going to come into play after mid month but positioning and orientation (which are so important) far from resolved as you would expect.

As many have said, relief for those areas with flooding issues but perhaps some overnight frosts and considerable diurnal range though IF we get a Scandinavian HP there's plenty of cold air to tap into and I would imagine -12 850s even at the end of March will have a bit of a kick.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That is a GEFS mean at 384 not an op - but to be fair the EPS don't look all that cold, however , the CPC anomalies do show a + anomaly over scandinavia if not an actual ridge.

ooopsie, my mistake on that, not that it makes much difference mind.  Yep theres a +ive anomaly but no high cell . To be fair to you though, the Anomalies are the mean for a nearer timeframe then the GEFS mean, so maybe an easterly is on the cards and wont show on the Anoms i use for a few days yet.

We shall see.
 

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Looks like an easterly to me...I know these are 500mb plots, but a Scandi high like that would give an easterly of sorts.

A slack southwesterly upper flow  across northern UK imho, i agree we could get something from the southeast, but not (yet) the strong persistent easterly some runs are showing. Positive heights over the UK though, but a steady southwesterly/westerly over Scandinavia.

But these charts are the 8-14 day mean, so if the easterlies currently being suggested in deep FI become reality they wont yet show on that chart.

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

ooopsie, my mistake on that, not that it makes much difference mind.  Yep theres a +ive anomaly but no high cell . To be fair to you though, the Anomalies are the mean for a nearer timeframe then the GEFS mean, so maybe an easterly is on the cards and wont show on the Anoms i use for a few days yet.

We shall see.
 

A slack southwesterly upper flow  across northern UK imho, i agree we could get something from the southeast, but not (yet) the strong persistent easterly some runs are showing. Positive heights over the UK though, but a steady southwesterly/westerly over Scandinavia.

But these charts are the 8-14 day mean, so if the easterlies currently being suggested in deep FI become reality they wont yet show on that chart.

No - I agree there, the ensembles don't tally up with this. Mild still the form horse.

[Mike Poole]

High pressure over the UK the form horse from the first two runs of the afternoon suite.  Here ICON at T168 and UKMO at T144:

So if you think about the three options from the ECM clusters that I posted about this morning, it seems the afternoon runs are edging away from the continued unsettled spell, so a UK high looks likely, whether that progresses to a Scandi high and an easterly remains to be seen, and, obviously, will be informed by those models that run for longer than these two do...

[booferking]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

High pressure over the UK the form horse from the first two runs of the afternoon suite.  Here ICON at T168 and UKMO at T144:

So if you think about the three options from the ECM clusters that I posted about this morning, it seems the afternoon runs are edging away from the continued unsettled spell, so a UK high looks likely, whether that progresses to a Scandi high and an easterly remains to be seen, and, obviously, will be informed by those models that run for longer than these two do...

Hopefully an easterly doesn't materialize here are in Europe we need heat and a quick spring i would say an easterly is the last think on peoples people's minds at the minute with the developing situation.

[stodge]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Hopefully an easterly doesn't materialize here are in Europe we need heat and a quick spring i would say an easterly is the last think on peoples people's minds at the minute with the developing situation.

We may well get an initial warmer phase as the HP moves in but if it migrates to Scandinavia in the medium to longer term it will turn colder.

[booferking]

1 minute ago, stodge said:

We may well get an initial warmer phase as the HP moves in but if it migrates to Scandinavia in the medium to longer term it will turn colder.

Hopefully we get a euro slug

[BarnetBlizzard]

Amazing consistency from the GFS you have to say. How many runs is that in a row that has hinted at an easterly around a similar timeframe? 

[Mike Poole]

11 minutes ago, booferking said:

Hopefully an easterly doesn't materialize here are in Europe we need heat and a quick spring i would say an easterly is the last think on peoples people's minds at the minute with the developing situation.

Yes, for sure, but I'm just commenting on what the models are showing.  GFS goes down the easterly route at T258:

I think the likelihood of something like this is increasing.  Whether that is a good or bad thing, others can judge...but the weather will do what the weather will do.

[MP-R]

I would be surprised if nearer the time we get something more like this happening:

  

Chilly to warm within a few days. Seems to be quite difficult to get a lengthy easterly in March these days.

[Mike Poole]

I know that weather is the least of most peoples worries at the moment, obviously toilet rolls come first,although I don't really understand that (!), but anyway here's where I think we stand:  

• GFS keen on the easterly T240, ECM keen on the UK high:

• where it goes from there, well even if it gets to there! Who knows and all within the envelope of uncertainty.
• It is all going to hell in a handcart in the strat, the vortex may be going down, here T240 and T384 from stratobserve :

• but it is only the weather. I don't know about you but I am struggling.  As someone who has mental health issues, I am probably autistic, and am anxious about what may be coming...re this virus thing.
• Please let's look out for one another in the next few weeks....

 

Edited March 11, 2020 by Mike Poole

[PiscesStar]

2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

I know that weather is the least of most peoples worries at the moment, obviously toilet rolls come first,although I don't really understand that (!), but anyway here's where I think we stand:  

• GFS keen on the easterly T240, ECM keen on the UK high:

• where it goes from there, well even if it gets to there! Who knows and all within the envelope of uncertainty.
• It is all going to hell in a handcart in the strat, the vortex may be going down, here T240 and T384 from stratobserve :

• but it is only the weather. I don't know about you but I am struggling.  As someone who has mental health issues, I am probably autistic, and am anxious about what may be coming...re this virus thing.
• Please let's look out for one another in the next few weeks....

 

Me too.. Very much so and overthinking and anxiety is dreadful for me. Take care. 

[snowray]

Here we go again, more filth from the 18z, and its not at T384 this eveing!

 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Very well said! (Edit: in response to Mike and Snowfish). Though as you say the weather not being something to be terribly concerned about at the moment, some drier (and maybe warmer) conditions, depending on the final positioning of the High Pressure, may help to lift some of our moods. And perhaps slow the speed of the virus a bit. Especially again should the possible more settled period be accompanied by sunnier and warmer conditions. 
 

NOAA/CPC 8 to 14 day 500mb anomaly chart tonight continues to play about with height rises over the UK and to our East, with a slack South-Westerly upper flow. 


 

Not sure the ridging over/to the East of the UK would get far enough North to bring in a colder flow from the East. Maybe not yet anyway. But at least a chance that the Atlantic could loose some of its anger, giving the UK a rest. (And with the way things have been, feel like that’s a good thing).

Edited March 11, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs 18z is bullish about bringing the easterly in,in less than ten days

contain your excitement but i hope this virus gets contained and dealt with

i am with you all

night.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

But if my life was in danger(sorry for the dramatics),i would take this over an easterly to take this virus out

and...

 

 

[Mike Poole]

I can't stop myself, can I? GFS has this in the strat, so it is worth posting.

GFS 18z T 240 :

The decimation of the strat vortex, oh! to have seen this in Dec, or Jan, or even Feb!

Edited March 11, 2020 by Mike Poole

[SMU]

Chart of the winter > Spring ?

But PTB 7 is the best run...

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Chart of the winter > Spring ?

But PTB 7 is the best run...

Impressive heights, not sure where the precipitation is coming from?