Model output discussion 02/02/20

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All, ! A major weather pattern change into next week , we loose the high pressure from southern Europe and develop an high over to the north east of the uk. Not game over for winter lovers though,  ! 1916 saw really heavy snowstorms in late March. ..

[Spah1]

1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening All, ! A major weather pattern change into next week , we loose the high pressure from southern Europe and develop an high over to the north east of the uk. Not game over for winter lovers though,  ! 1916 saw really heavy snowstorms in late March. ..

‘lose’ not ‘loose’

pet hate

[winterof79]

GFS a massive cold outlier this morning I thought...... Then I looked at GEM 

That would be funny after this farce of a winter

[Radiating Dendrite]

10 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

GFS a massive cold outlier this morning I thought...... Then I looked at GEM 

That would be funny after this farce of a winter

A nagging east wind with cloud and drizzle / snow grains - no thanks.

Winter is gone guys, it was rubbish and personally I am looking for the first bit of spring warmth now.

[johnholmes]

7 hours ago, Spah1 said:

‘lose’ not ‘loose’

pet hate

Bit like quiet when it should be quite!

[drgl]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

Bit like quiet when it should be quite!

To right!!(!!).Back OT.

[Man With Beard]

Finally some more concrete signs of spring breaking through next week. ECM moves a high pressure over the southern half of the UK for much of the week and gives raw maximums between 14C and 17C, which in reality may mean some spots reporting up to 19C. It's still not a completely secure forecast, as there's still time for a much colder Atlantic feed that might possibly affect the far north to correct further south - unlikely to be too big a correction now, though. 

[bazookabob]

21 minutes ago, drgl said:

To right!!(!!).Back OT.

*Too... Back O/T...  

[lassie23]

8 hours ago, Spah1 said:

‘lose’ not ‘loose’

pet hate

As we loose winter I expect things to get very quite in here

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

As we loose winter I expect things to get very quite in here

Their going to be mad when they read this

[JeffC]

10 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening All, ! A major weather pattern change into next week , we loose the high pressure from southern Europe and develop an high over to the north east of the uk. Not game over for winter lovers though,  ! 1916 saw really heavy snowstorms in late March. ..

March 2013 was very snowy in many places too 24" here!

[SLEETY]

Let's hope FL of gfs can be correct just once, as its still going for a very cold easterly and some brutal uppers about to enter Scandinavia at the end, maybe payback for the ridiculous mild winter they had winter they had, even milder than here. 

[Purga]

Come the Equinox - hello winter

A bit late to the party but hinted at by METO in their text long ranger.

[Snowy L]

21 minutes ago, Purga said:

Come the Equinox - hello winter

A bit late to the party but hinted at by METO in their text long ranger.

That has 5C and drizzle written a over it. It's the end of March with wind coming from a snowless continent.

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

As we loose winter I expect things to get very quite in here

Quiet so! Anywho, this morning's 00Z doesn't look three bad; there's only one rather painful looking blast of nagging easterlies:

T+156:      

T+210:      

T+282:      

T+354:      

T+384:      Bleurrgghhh!

[E17boy]

GOOD BYE WINTER

The long journey since November has come to an end now. I waited months for you and then you came in November with a cold start to the season. The hopes of us coldies went up we thought this would be the season that you would show us what you were and bring smiles to our faces sadly this was not to be.

Come December you suddenly changed your tone and became best friends with PV he stuck to you like glue and now it's all over PV wants to let you go. 

Your service has been crap you have lashed us with wind and rain and now we believe it's an activity you are no doubt highly adapt to. Those people whose houses up north you flooded and the poor tree and fence that had been standing in my garden for years, just could not stand the dismay that you inflicted. 

Yiou have tormented us coldies by suggesting something good was going to be delivered to us in the 10 or 16 day period, but this was like a false mirage in the desert there was nothing there as we got closer. 

No doubt when you read this oh winter you will be chuckling at the heartbreak you caused this season, but remember us coldies will never give up in 8 months our hunt will start again and the new winter may be much better than your records this season. 

I have nothing more left to say winter except I leave you with a glass of melted ice that I took from my freezer to remind myself of what I have missed. Please keep this for your archives and records not that any of us coldies will need to re visit. 

I gues it's now time for me to give up got no picture of you on my coffee cup as there was nothing to admire.

GOODBYE WINTER 

[mushymanrob]

What easterly?...

 

[feb1991blizzard]

28 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

What easterly?...

 

 

 

Yes, what Easterly indeed?

[winterof79]

29 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

What easterly?...

 

?

Edited March 11, 2020 by winterof79

[SMU]

06z If only it was January!

Still the continent isnt past the point of no return & this would bring snow showers in!

[Tim Bland]

Some consistency still in GFS FI ? Just need to see the flat liners appear at the end of the GEFS ensembles and the ECM day 10 start showing signs of the scandi high.....and we are in business...what could possibly go wrong

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

06z If only it was January!

Still the continent isnt past the point of no return & this would bring snow showers in!

 

Probably dry further North but you would certainly see snow, a covering at least.

[Methuselah]

34 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Probably dry further North but you would certainly see snow, a covering at least.

Agreed, feb...But it'd be nice to some snowfall, before spring turns into summer? And, @mushymanrob, this is defo an easterly!

    

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Agreed, feb...But it'd be nice to some snowfall, before spring turns into summer? And, @mushymanrob, this is defo an easterly!

And this is definitely an Easterly @mushymanrob A mean at 384 cannot be ignored when it shows an E'ly, ok most members are not a showing a snowy Easterly but an Easterly is still an Easterly, whether snowy or not, we are not at the point yet where Easterlies at surface will be warm, even with modest uppers.

Edited March 11, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[Mike Poole]

ECM 0z clusters at T240 and T360;

So.  Continued sign of that pattern change, with high pressure showing, somewhere. Actually day 15 is pretty much a three way split, with the main cluster going with the easterly as per the GEFS, the middle one remaining unsettled and the third one being the UK high.  Where's your money?