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Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The ECM 0z operational ends with a cold high and I continue to have high hopes for the second half / final third of March regarding a spell of settled weather!☀️

559B5BEB-537E-4D75-8D84-BD795DA6843E.thumb.png.65bec5f8d9a4b1106e027991edb2e129.pngF25C5E6E-9A2F-480B-831D-267C5739EB12.thumb.png.e6912c89887820c99615cdfc66097f21.pngCCD3A3C6-E8F8-4C2A-95CF-D84C40DFE14B.thumb.png.9fb4197675d50edddcc12f1eccf593fd.png

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Derbyshire
14 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Tuesday 10 March and an update on the 500 mb anomaly charts from 4 days ago

Ec-gfs and they both show quite a change from those above (4 days ago) with ridging being the main feature in the uk area; differences in how they show low heights south of this ridging but the rest of the charts look pretty similar

Noaa not as far into the ridging idea but a less mobile chart in the ik area than for quite a long time

The 8-14 even has not only slight ridging in the contours but showing +ve heights over the uk, not large amounts but again very different from the past few weeks.

Maybe this really is a pattern change, if this trend continues over the next 3 days or so then it would look odds on?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

 

Hi

What does this mean for the UK John ? Less rain and more Cold weather !! 
thankyou  

Georgie 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Hello Georgina

Not sure of temperature levels but IF the charts at 500 mb keep along similar lines then the almost constant procession of surface lows with their rain would be much less frequent. Maybe, note maybe, missing for  some time. Don't ask me how long though but a more 'normal' pattern of weather is perhaps the best way to describe how it would turn out.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
13 hours ago, Earthshine said:

Spring starts on the 20th March so just about made it!

The Meteorological Spring starts on March 1st, this is a meteorological site.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

We're slowly getting there. Looking much better for some much needed and long awaited drier and settled weather - but for how long?:

image.thumb.png.1a202ebb3495d17a244dd1a4a93524dd.pngimage.thumb.png.7687b3114f2cc47be1da45e373deba9e.png

GFS and ECM ensembles both say yes now. D10 clusters look the best they have for a while:

image.thumb.png.34ad53e022862a4e8f8f749d7b71c559.png
 

Maybe a bit more dicey at D12-D15 as the models struggle with what the Atlantic will do, and where the high/lows end up:

image.thumb.png.12ff1a8549b83f687cc31c9307d43375.pngimage.thumb.png.b0c7fe034cb656189f5c6b3c396f571d.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

BOOM!

image.thumb.png.d5b4378bf391f598d78995eab918a121.png

Heavy snow piling into the SE. A Murr special.

:yahoo:

Farcical isn't it! 850s are only around -8c....would be looking at -15 850s in mid winter with that set up. Knowing our luck it'll materialise now!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Farcical isn't it! 850s are only around -8c....would be looking at -15 850s in mid winter with that set up. Knowing our luck it'll materialise now!

Yes but have you seen the heavy snow that isn't a million miles away from your location - you would get battered, look at the curve in isobars, outbreaks of heavy snow like feb 1st 09.

TEITS would be having an orgasm if that verified.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

BOOM!

image.thumb.png.d5b4378bf391f598d78995eab918a121.png

Heavy snow piling into the SE. A Murr special.

:yahoo:

And only 15 days away Feb

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

And only 15 days away Feb

More and more backed up by the GEFS with every run and a very small cluster just appeared on the EPS - uppers will be the problem - the Easterly is a very realistic possiblity given time of year but to be honest my concerns are the uppers will probably be much higher than in the 6z GFS.

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

More and more backed up by the GEFS with every run and a very small cluster just appeared on the EPS - uppers will be the problem - the Easterly is a very realistic possiblity given time of year but to be honest my concerns are the uppers will probably be much higher than in the 6z GFS.

I,d love it to come off Feb just as a small recompense for the utterly sh*te  winter we,'ve had to put up with. Hi

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Never give in hope, till all hope is lost!! Just had a gander at me crystal ball and we still have potential for something a tad wintry. Bit of a countdown though, but hey that's just the norm for the UK! 

gens-6-1-384.png

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gens-15-1-360.png

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06_360_preciptype.png

06_366_preciptype.png

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Posted
  • Location: Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Very Cold, Very Snowy
  • Location: Midlands

Where oh where were these gfs charts in midwinter. Yes I know that Spring relaxation of the PV is largely responsibly for BOOM charts in Spring but why do we have to go through this.....

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 hours ago, phil nw. said:

It will be interesting to see where we go after this as given the time of year with the tpv finally showing signs of receding the easterly modeled on some recent outputs can't be ruled out.The trend for a Scandinavian high is showing again on the 06z gefs

gensnh-21-1-312.thumb.png.f0a3ec56451517336964502d062107f4.png

Still a chance of a cold easterly there.To be honest as long as we see the ridging developing nearby in some form i would be happy just to see an end to this never ending Atlantic conveyor.

Yes, Phil, that looks a strong signal at that range on the GEFS mean.  The appearance of the 1030mbar contour on a mean chart that far ahead is significant, I think.  Interesting to see how this unfolds...

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

If we can get some these Boom charts down from D15 to D7 then this place will start buzzing again. After the dire winter we've had so far us cold and snow hunters deserve  something simply for sticking it out. Long way to go yet but a least some promising prospects and a chance to let the land dry out on the way there.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Quite a lovely GFS6z with reasonably warm sunshine before the easterly at the end.

spacer.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Interesting GFS run this morning 

h500slp.png

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prectypeuktopo (2).png

Edited by Zak M
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

1050 Scandi high? GFS 12z at T330:

image.thumb.jpg.f81d94efcdaceb9e65d17effe22eb7b4.jpg

Obviously that is well down the line, but I think the pattern change we've talked about is probably going to happen, I'm not saying anything cold this late in the season, more a let up of the wet weather we've been plagued with for so long. 

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
5 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes but have you seen the heavy snow that isn't a million miles away from your location - you would get battered, look at the curve in isobars, outbreaks of heavy snow like feb 1st 09.

TEITS would be having an orgasm if that verified.

He wouldn't be the only one, orgasms all round 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The mid and especially longer term GEFS 12z mean looks increasingly settled under high pressure which would be a great relief to flood hit areas if it occurs and for what it’s worth, I think we are on track for a more benign period during the second half / last third of March across most of the U.K. but especially the southern half..finally, just for fun, there’s a wintry member too.

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